Weekend Numbers | actuals | 27.75M THE FALL GUY | 8.72M SW: EP I - TPM | 7.59M CHALLENGERS | 6.50M TAROT

[Spidey Freak]

4 minutes ago, justnumbers said:

I mean...Ghostbusters has been holding pretty well since the 2nd weekend drop. 

 

Making teeny tiny single digits weekend to weekend yes 

[AniNate]

Panda's likely gonna be right around where Migration was in box office take prior to its opening for the weekend before IF opens, plus they also still had the PG rated Wonka holding out at that time. So I think there will be a certain degree of desire for something new.

 

Also it is generally unwise to base kids movie predictions on personal vibes. It may not look interesting to adults but if it's an unpainful enough looking timewaster that can be enough to sell tickets to parents.

 

Not ruling out the possibility that Garfield does destroy its legs on the strength of its bright colorful franchise IP, but for its opening weekend at least I buy it being a big draw.

 

 

 

Edited May 4 by AniNate

[vale9001]

A quiet place is an horror. We know horror is the genre is more easier to sell just by the concept and the one gives more surprises at the box office (but you need to invest often more money on marketing than the actual budget + horrors have a kind of limit at the box office, while a drama or a comedy once became phenomenons can reach a broader audience in terms of different targets of people). 

 

 

Edited May 4 by vale9001

[MightyDargon]

I'm increasingly skeptical on tracking given how much Fall Guy underperformed "studio tracking". It didn't underperform the actual tracking ON HERE but unless I see a big groundswell for IF I think Garfield will be the main "pure kids" movie.

[Scubasteve716]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

IF tracking at $40-$50 mil, and that truly is an original movie conceived by its director

IF is fosters home for imaginary friends. The main imaginary friend in the two even has the same name. And I don’t think it’s getting anything close to 40-50. 

[AniNate]

All I know is that at a local theater of mine in boring suburban Ohio, despite presales having opened a week later than Garfield, IF has sold 86 for its weekend compared to 29 for Garfield. I don't know if maybe the trades might not be accounting for an elevated adult pull, but I think there is a logic to it. 

 

 

Edited May 4 by AniNate

[JimmyB]

I have to see what the tracking thread has for IF when they all start pulling numbers for it.  The couple trackers that did pull numbers for IF looked okay.  My kid has zero interest in IF which doesnt mean much. The last movie he and his friends wanted to see was FNAF.  Honestly, him and his friends really dont care about going to theater unless everyone is talking about it, everyone talking about it = Tiktok

 

@TwoMisfits has a big family maybe she can add some input into what her kids think of IF.

Edited May 4 by JimmyB

[Eric Lasagna]

I mean I buy the IF tracking. Haven't paid attention to sales or whatever, but this fits well in the same vein as a lot of other movies that aren't based on big IP, but have major starpower to compensate. Fall Guy, Free Guy, Lost City, Bullet Train, Nope if you want to add in directors. The higher-end of those do about 90-120M. So in normal circumstances, it would have probably opened in the 30s. But then you have a market that hasn't gotten anything since March, and you get a solid 10M bump for its opening. It all makes sense in my opinion.

 

Though I will say, and I'm sure it's hysterical to the kiddies, but when your trailer ends with a gummy bear farting, I do question its potential quality.

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

I have to see what the tracking thread has for IF when they all start pulling numbers for it.  The couple trackers that did pull numbers for IF looked okay.  My kid has zero interest in IF which doesnt mean much. The last movie he and his friends wanted to see was FNAF.  Honestly, him and his friends really dont care about going to theater unless everyone is talking about it, everyone talking about it = Tiktok

 

@TwoMisfits has a big family maybe she can add some input into what her kids think of IF.

 

Mine are aging out of IF.  

 

I mean, as the mom who's seen so many of these movies, it reminds me of Detective Pikachu without any of the Pokemon.  So, while it's "new", it's somewhat derivative, at least when watching the trailer.  Now, I don't know if that helps or hurts IF - if Pokemon excluded or included more folks.

 

I know very little kids (0-5) don't watch live action.  The whole reason to go live action is to try and grab some non-family audience on top of family audience.  If the non-family audience here would not be caught dead at IF without a kid, that might also hold down box office,

 

So, I'm not on any $50M+ DOM OW for IF (it would be great, but not what I'm expecting unless John Krasinski is a female 25-85 rock star draw on his own).  Maybe it does that...but then, it would be b/c it brought out a Gentleminions audience of a huge 13-25 turnout...or a Top Gun Maverick 40+ Caucasian turnout.  Not just b/c it drew families.  See Margaret last year for a movie that JUST drew families of girls aged 6-12 (which this movie seems like it's targeting).

 

Then again, I've gone to 1 2024 movie this year, which is so unusual for me...and you do kinda fall out of the habit and the "buzz"...so maybe this is hitting somewhere huge and I just don't know it.

 

PS - On the point of breaking the movie habit again - Covid forced that, so people were clamoring to get back.  Nothing forced breaking the habit this year, so that's gonna be much harder to overcome to get folks back.  I mean, my kid still has his movie sub, but we're just saving each month's ticket...it's been that slow for their interest...

[MightyDargon]

If isn't getting "Gentleminions". That ONLY happened because Minions was already popular.

[filmlover]

Horror movies usually don't get great CS scores but C- for Tarot shows that those who did pay to see it hated it lol.

 

This year has been weak for horror so far, but a number of the higher-profile titles being of garbage quality didn't help their cause. Hopefully the new A Quiet Place and Smile installments + the Shyamalan clan turn things around for the genre since they actually have something going for them.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, MightyDargon said:

If isn't getting "Gentleminions". That ONLY happened because Minions was already popular.

 

If there's some teenage tiktok on "bring your IF stuffy and watch in your PJs" and it goes wild...I don't know about it.  It's no crazier than a dancing horror doll craze.

 

I mean, Regal gave away tickets on the 1st day of presales to its subscribers with its point return plan...and the movie gave away 1-for-1 tickets if you bought the 1st day, so IF has pushed some ticket buying early. Maybe it gets out there...maybe...

[MightyDargon]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

If there's some teenage tiktok on "bring your IF stuffy and watch in your PJs" and it goes wild...I don't know about it.  It's no crazier than a dancing horror doll craze.

 

I mean, Regal gave away tickets on the 1st day of presales to its subscribers with its point return plan...and the movie gave away 1-for-1 tickets if you bought the 1st day, so IF has pushed some ticket buying early. Maybe it gets out there...maybe...

Considering I haven't heard any reports of If becoming a meme movie in any way, I'll take "no" over "flying pandas fart out peppermint bubbles and If becomes the next Gentleminions" for my theory on this one.

[JimmyB]

20 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Mine are aging out of IF.  

 

I mean, as the mom who's seen so many of these movies, it reminds me of Detective Pikachu without any of the Pokemon.  So, while it's "new", it's somewhat derivative, at least when watching the trailer.  Now, I don't know if that helps or hurts IF - if Pokemon excluded or included more folks.

 

I know very little kids (0-5) don't watch live action.  The whole reason to go live action is to try and grab some non-family audience on top of family audience.  If the non-family audience here would not be caught dead at IF without a kid, that might also hold down box office,

 

So, I'm not on any $50M+ DOM OW for IF (it would be great, but not what I'm expecting unless John Krasinski is a female 25-85 rock star draw on his own).  Maybe it does that...but then, it would be b/c it brought out a Gentleminions audience of a huge 13-25 turnout...or a Top Gun Maverick 40+ Caucasian turnout.  Not just b/c it drew families.  See Margaret last year for a movie that JUST drew families of girls aged 6-12 (which this movie seems like it's targeting).

 

Then again, I've gone to 1 2024 movie this year, which is so unusual for me...and you do kinda fall out of the habit and the "buzz"...so maybe this is hitting somewhere huge and I just don't know it.

 

PS - On the point of breaking the movie habit again - Covid forced that, so people were clamoring to get back.  Nothing forced breaking the habit this year, so that's gonna be much harder to overcome to get folks back.  I mean, my kid still has his movie sub, but we're just saving each month's ticket...it's been that slow for their interest...

The trailer gave me Hop vibes mixing live action with cartoon creatures. Yeah, DP is a good comp minus the IP.

 

The point about movie habits...I think have changed forever.  Its so different from when I was kid or even 10 years ago.  I can really only use my kid and his friends as what they have interest in but they can play video games all day or scroll on their phone and never once look up at the TV. 

I played video games as a kid but now they have 100s of online friends to game with, Youtube, Tiktok.  Tiktok changed the game. Last week, the weekend tread was debating how popular Saltburn was and I stayed out of it but my kid asked if he could watch it last year, lol.  I know why, Tiktok. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Digital subscription update - aka this is why folks stay home...

 

So, 2 of my Black Friday and previous cancel deals were up this month...my Hulu with D+ no ads add-on and my HBO Max.  I just tried to cancel both (and got sucked back into one).

 

Hulu and D+ no ads has cost me $5.98/month, but was gonna rise to about $15/month, so I canceled it.  And then, Hulu decided to offer me another 6 months at the same price.  I mean, how to do I pass up D+ with no ads for $5.98/month with Hulu effectively free?  So, I didn't.  And now, I don't have to rush finishing X-Men 97 (nor rush watching the 2023 Disney movies I still haven't gotten to yet).

 

Max has cost me $2.99month with ads and was gonna rise to $10/month.  I canceled that, and they offered me $5/month with ads.  I continued to cancel b/c my spouse wanted this, and the only thing I've really been watching (b/c I have FoodTv elsewhere) is NBA and NHL stuff...and the Philly teams are out and I still have a few more weeks.  So, I can wait for Black Friday again.  And I can spend this month seeing if I missed anything on Max I wanted to watch.

 

Notice, all 3 are available at ridiculous monthly low costs compared to a movie ticket, especially if you're always willing to cancel (which I am, b/c I tend to cycle these, unless the deals are too good to cycle)...

[JonathanMB]

 

 

Looks like Civil War will be having a 45-50% drop. TV Glow should land in the $30k PTA range for the weekend, standard for the buzzier A24 works but still pretty impressive for a movie whose only "big" name is Justice Smith. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

5 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

 

 

[excel1]

Get Z loves off ball creativity and this looked so blah. TRAP will be the summers big oqerperformer if it is any good 

[MightyDargon]

SHIT, Hayley Mills is still alive!?!???!