Weekend Numbers | actuals | 27.75M THE FALL GUY | 8.72M SW: EP I - TPM | 7.59M CHALLENGERS | 6.50M TAROT

[marveldcfox]

33 minutes ago, ReturnOfTheBoxOffice said:

GxK holding well. Come on 200m!

Apes will kill the giant ape next weekend. 

[Liiviig 1998]

70m int for challengers ?

 

It's at 23m os. Holdovers should bring it to 45-50m.

 

You expecting 20m+ from Japan 

Why ?

 

Thinks it will squeak past 100m . Nothing more than that . 

[AniNate]

15 minutes ago, Dreadnought said:

 

Can you explain your math here?

 

Are we expecting Japan to contribute at least $20M which is more than Elemental did this past summer? 

 

I could but I don't feel like it, since you'd probably poke holes in it anyway

[Dreadnought]

3 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

70m int for challengers ?

 

It's at 23m os. Holdovers should bring it to 45-50m.

 

You expecting 20m+ from Japan 

Why ?

 

Thinks it will squeak past 100m . Nothing more than that . 

 

I don't see $100M either (JMO) but that would be a nice bonus for the May box office. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

34 minutes ago, AniNate said:

KFP3 was officially a China/US co-production and KFP4 was considered a US foreign import, so it was subjected to stricter revenue sharing and distribution regulations. It's only made about $50 million there compared to KFP3's $150 mil

Why did KFP3 had to underperform as poorly as it did back in 2016? Still drives me crazy to this day, that the third film never lived to it’s box office potential as much as other animated films at the time. 👩🏻‍💼🤦🏻‍♀️😣😔

 

A high RT-critic score in the mid/high 80’s and yet it never caught on so much in terms of box office in a pre-pandemic time, mind you. And i say it as someone who loves the third film as a fan of the franchise.

[AniNate]

 

7 minutes ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

70m int for challengers ?

 

It's at 23m os. Holdovers should bring it to 45-50m.

 

You expecting 20m+ from Japan 

Why ?

 

Thinks it will squeak past 100m . Nothing more than that . 

 

Doable in the sense of continuing to have 24% drops, which would get it to around $60-$65 million not including a Japan release

 

63.54975318
15.3
11.628
8.83728
6.7163328
5.104412928
3.879353825
2.948308907
2.240714769
1.702943225
1.294236851
0.9836200066
0.7475512051
0.5681389158
0.431785576
0.3281570378
0.2493993487
0.189543505
0.1440530638
0.1094803285
0.08320504966
0.06323583774

 

 

Yes, I know there are all kinds of external factors like theater will and the like, but this kind of rough guesstimating worked pretty well for me following Elemental's run last year

 

[emoviefan]

Was looking at the Qurom Garfield and IF have the same 48% Awareness, 50% Interest and 47% would see in a theater. Gonna be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Liiviig 1998]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

 

Doable in the sense of continuing to have 24% drops, which would get it to around $60-$65 million not including a Japan release

 

63.54975318
15.3
11.628
8.83728
6.7163328
5.104412928
3.879353825
2.948308907
2.240714769
1.702943225
1.294236851
0.9836200066
0.7475512051
0.5681389158
0.431785576
0.3281570378
0.2493993487
0.189543505
0.1440530638
0.1094803285
0.08320504966
0.06323583774

 

 

Yes, I know there are all kinds of external factors like theater will and the like, but this kind of rough guesstimating worked pretty well for me following Elemental's run last year

 

Using elemental as a baseline is just not the right comp.

 

It's animation that had stellar word of mouth . Animations tend to have staggered releases which really soften drops as markets continue to open for consequent weeks.

 

It has 48m  left and expect Japan to barely contribute to that . Expect 40m+ from currents holdovers is almost 6x it's 2nd weekend . That's very optimistic.

 

Does it have any other big markets beside Japan left .

[filmlover]

Think June is going to be where business picks up. Bigger IPs and the horror titles being released look like actual theatrical features instead of DTV schlock like most of the higher-profile titles released this year so far.

[emoviefan]

So GXK and KFP4 both sitting at 188 DOM.  It feels like both are going to be stretch's to get to 200. GXK is going to get hit by Apes this weekend even though it almost doubled Panda this weekend and Panda is going to get hit hard by IF and Garfield in back to back weeks. 

[Cmasterclay]

Everything looks better if you consider Apes the real start of summer, given that it's an IP Disney sequel with a fuck ton of marketing and all the studios holding their trailers until that comes out. Until this week, trades were calling it the start of summer. Yes obviously Apes will be lower than the typical Marvel launch itself but it's definitely what Hollywood considers the start of summer by the way it is acting IMO.

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Everything looks better if you consider Apes the real start of summer, given that it's an IP Disney sequel with a fuck ton of marketing and all the studios holding their trailers until that comes out. Until this week, trades were calling it the start of summer. Yes obviously Apes will be lower than the typical Marvel launch itself but it's definitely what Hollywood considers the start of summer by the way it is acting IMO.

Honestly I don't understand why Disney did not move it up when they knew for sure D&W was not going to be ready. Fall Guy could have stayed on March 1 did what it did and No pressure. People can like it, hate it, be indifferent to it. But no narrative that the summer movie season started out with a big whiff.

[filmlover]

Just now, emoviefan said:

Honestly I don't understand why Disney did not move it up when they knew for sure D&W was not going to be ready. Fall Guy could have stayed on March 1 did what it did and No pressure. People can like it, hate it, be indifferent to it. But no narrative that the summer movie season started out with a big whiff.

Because Universal doesn't have much for this summer or the rest of the year. Their only remaining releases for 2024 are Despicable Me 4, Twisters, Speak No Evil, The Wild Robot, and Wicked. Luckily they have what's looking to be a big 2025 for them set up.

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Because Universal doesn't have much for this summer or the rest of the year. Their only remaining releases for 2024 are Despicable Me 4, Twisters, Speak No Evil, The Wild Robot, and Wicked. Luckily they have what's looking to be a big 2025 for them set up.

Yeah I am not questioning why Universal did what they did. Once they saw Disney was dragging their heels on moving Apes why not move the Fall Guy. The test screenings were great. They felt they had a movie they could sell and turn into a blockbuster. But yeah that did not happen for any number of reasons people have given.

[MightyDargon]

If Universal was willing to dump Super Bowl money on it they must have somehow thought this movie was an "event".

Would've gotten killed by Dune had it stayed in March anyway.

[PrinceRico]

I guess we.will half to wait for Bad Boys 4 to truly start the summer.

[babz06]

Fall Guy likely would have done about the same business, maybe worse, in March. It’s fine that Universal moved it to May but that put unrealistic expectations on it. Apes and Fall Guy swapping dates would have relieved some of that pressure but it is what it is. 

[DAJK]

Bernard Hill passed away today, for some reason can’t embed the link. RIP

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/05/entertainment/bernard-hill-theoden-king-death-intl

Edited May 5 by DAJK

[MightyDargon]

3 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Fall Guy likely would have done about the same business, maybe worse, in March. It’s fine that Universal moved it to May but that put unrealistic expectations on it. Apes and Fall Guy swapping dates would have relieved some of that pressure but it is what it is. 

Nah. Swap would've put it closer to Bad Boys 4. The actual optimal play would probably have been Feb. with a MUCH smaller marketing budget. Or possibly Sept. 

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

I guess we.will half to wait for Bad Boys 4 to truly start the summer.

Apes is looking good for next week.