Weekend Numbers | actuals | 27.75M THE FALL GUY | 8.72M SW: EP I - TPM | 7.59M CHALLENGERS | 6.50M TAROT

[ReturnOfTheBoxOffice]

13 hours ago, marveldcfox said:

Apes will kill the giant ape next weekend. 

You don’t think people will do the Monke double feature?

[Belakor]

I think one big reason for this is a disconnect between what audiences want vs what most studios are giving. There is little interest to see films on theaters these days.

I expect a 25% drop in global box office this year.

 

[Boxofficerules]

Maybe they are making too many films that feel far too safe. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with safe films, but it feels like everything plays it too safely. Why go see a movie in the cinema when I can stream a TV series that has more of an edge to it than most movies? Both Tarot and The Fall Guy just looked too safe to bother paying full price for; just wait until they hit streaming.

[Kon]

7 hours ago, Pinacolada said:

 

 

I'm sure short term the 17 day window thing for Universal makes sense. They make money bc bozos who don't ever go to theaters see a brand new movie on their rental services and are like "Damn, didn't this movie just come out. Let's watch it. I feel special". There's an extra rush and demand for movies that just came out I suppose. 

 

But it's wild to me how they do not care about the longterm effects of this is going to have. Even people here ignore jt. People will eventually catch on or have already caught on. They'll hear a new movie is really good and they should go see it. 

 

"I'll just wait for it to come out on rental in like 2 weeks like The Fall Guy"

 

To be fair, rental is still soomething you need to pay to see.

 

That means you will choose to wait 2 weeks to pay for a movie in a smaller screen over a big screen. That seems a weird choice unless you really dislike theaters.

[Boxofficerules]

2 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

To be fair, rental is still soomething you need to pay to see.

 

That means you will choose to wait 2 weeks to pay for a movie in a smaller screen over a big screen. That seems a weird choice unless you really dislike theaters.

Or wait 2 weeks an pirate a HD copy of the movie and pay nothing.

[Kon]

17 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Or wait 2 weeks an pirate a HD copy of the movie and pay nothing.

True. However, piracy isn't as easy or comfortable as many people think. That's why many people still choose (to pay) streaming services over piracy.

 

In itself, the idea of many people waiting two weeks to pirate a HD copy doesn't seem so likely. People don't tend to wait for something they are interested.

Edited May 6 by Kon

[Boxofficerules]

11 minutes ago, Kon said:

True. However, piracy isn't as easy or comfortable as many people think. That's why many people still choose (to pay) streaming services over piracy.

 

In itself, the idea of many people waiting two weeks to pirate a HD copy doesn't seem so likely. People don't tend to wait for something they are interested.

I meant wait 2 weeks from the cinema release, it will be online the same time the movie hits streaming. I know a lot of people that pirate. You can buy boxes over here, hook it up to your tv and illegally stream anything.

[terrestrial]

16 hours ago, AniNate said:

Doable in the sense of continuing to have 24% drops, which would get it to around $60-$65 million not including a Japan r5elease

 

Yes, I know there are all kinds of external factors like theater will and the like, but this kind of rough guesstimating worked pretty well for me following Elemental's run last year

 

Liked for the work done, even if I do not think it will happen that way.

 

But who knows, since I started to look into ww numbers (sometime in the ‘70), there were some surprises…

[eddyxx]

On 5/4/2024 at 5:12 AM, titanic2187 said:

Applying substances over form principle, Fall Guy is more original than "IP". 99% of the people went to see the movie don't know that tv series exists and the marketing made almost zero reference to that tv series. Enough to call Fall Guy a original movie rather than a IP. 

I had no clue there was a tv show or even heard of the show until I read about it on here and I’m 39.

[Kon]

16 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I meant wait 2 weeks from the cinema release, it will be online the same time the movie hits streaming. I know a lot of people that pirate. You can buy boxes over here, hook it up to your tv and illegally stream anything.

I've understood you mean "wait 2 weeks from the cinema release". I just mentioned Streaming because many people still paid for it although (as you said) it will be online the same time movie hits streaming. That happens because piracy isn't so easy for many people.

 

The idea of people thinking "I wait two weeks to pirate this movie on HD" seems weird, because people don't tend to wait for something they are interested. If they said they are going to wait, they are likely not so interested on that movie (it's even possible they wouldn't go to see that movie unless it's free).

Edited May 6 by Kon

[Alexander]

8 hours ago, John Marston said:

People keep talking about the prices but it’s not like people are just staying home all the time and not doing outside activities. Lack of appealing titles is the main culprit 

But they do spend much more time home than 10 or 20 years ago.

[JohnnyGossamer]

This year the strikes pushing back multiple titles is the obvious culprit. 

 

We've seen with Dune and Godzilla and even Panda that people will still come out for movies. Proper first weekend of May tent pole would've done considerably better than TFG.

[Kon]

54 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

This year the strikes pushing back multiple titles is the obvious culprit. 

 

We've seen with Dune and Godzilla and even Panda that people will still come out for movies. Proper first weekend of May tent pole would've done considerably better than TFG.

It's true that people will come out for movies they are interested.

 

However, I'm not sure the strike is the culprit for the current situation. The movies for the first half of 2024 didn't look so good for the box office even beore the strikes. There were movies pushed back, but most of them wouldn't really affect the situation.

 

In fact, Dune was pushed back to March, which makes that month better.

[AniNate]

The strike is the main culprit for the last weekend, I would say, but yes, Q1 never looked all that impressive. Spiderverse 3 likely wasn't gonna be ready regardless and Elio was surely offset by the Dune delay. 

 

I do suspect there was a certain bet hedging by studios regarding the schedule though, since they probably knew strikes were coming. Q1 next year does look a lot healthier

[justnumbers]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

The strike is the main culprit for the last weekend, I would say, but yes, Q1 never looked all that impressive. Spiderverse 3 likely wasn't gonna be ready regardless and Elio was surely offset by the Dune delay. 

 

I do suspect there was a certain bet hedging by studios regarding the schedule though, since they probably knew strikes were coming. Q1 next year does look a lot healthier

Yes there definitely was quite a bit of bet hedging and specially April and February and January suffered the most.

 

Studios filled them with small movies with no promotion and stinkers and tried to make them bigger by the default of lack of product, like Argylle and Madame Web.

,

[wildphantom]

3 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

I meant wait 2 weeks from the cinema release, it will be online the same time the movie hits streaming. I know a lot of people that pirate. You can buy boxes over here, hook it up to your tv and illegally stream anything.

Agree. By and large there are certain movies that are affected more than others. Those that appeal to a demo who know where to stream/rip perfect copies once they hit PVOD are going to suffer more than the likes of a Kung Fu Panda imo. 
 

The teens/early 20’s club that are all over Gosling know they can watch TFG in a few weeks for free.  It absolutely sucks, but it is what it is until the studios sort these windows out. 
 

I know some think I exaggerate and the numbers aren’t as significant as I think they are, but I think it’s a bigger issue than many give it credit for. 
 

More’s to the point. If you don’t treat your movie as it being special then the long term impression you’re giving your consumers is that they won’t think it’s special either. 

[filmlover]

Are we really surprised that The Fall Guy's demos leaned older? It's based on a show from decades ago, both leads are in their 40s, and the action-comedy tends to be the biggest draw with adults overall. The marketing probably tried to extend the Barbenheimer meme into the following year knowing they faced an uphill battle getting younger demos on board.

[Morieris]

Does anyone know why other countries (off the top of my head, Australia and New Zealand at the least) got all 3 of the Prequel re-releases but America seems to have only gotten Phantom Menace?

 

I took my father and now he's genuinely interested in seeing the rest and it'd be nice to go.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Morieris said:

Does anyone know why other countries (off the top of my head, Australia and New Zealand at the least) got all 3 of the Prequel re-releases but America seems to have only gotten Phantom Menace?

 

I took my father and now he's genuinely interested in seeing the rest and it'd be nice to go.

Some theaters did a marathon of all the movies on Saturday for the May the 4th gimmick (bless everyone who had the willpower to be in a movie theater all day literally). Otherwise the nationwide release for the 25th anniversary of Menace.

[Morieris]

Just now, filmlover said:

Some theaters did a marathon of all the movies on Saturday for the May the 4th gimmick (bless everyone who had the willpower to be in a movie theater all day literally). Otherwise the nationwide release for the 25th anniversary of Menace.

 

Ah a specialized thing. Oh dear god I was tired after 1h 45m, I can't imagine watching all of those at once.