Weekend Numbers | actuals | 58.40M KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES | 13.70M THE FALL GUY | 4.38M CHALLENGERS | TAROT

[CJohn]

I need to see some Saturday numbers and weekdays/2nd weekend drop. Not sure about that B. We will see how reliable it is soon enough.

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

That is obfuscation by omission.

 

 

 

 

How much of that 85 percent was A and how much was B? If say it was 25-60, the statement still is true but makes it clear that B was the default response. If they had broken it out, we would have likely seen it skew towards B way more than A.

 

That statement conveys literally nothing and is just a clever way of hiding the actual breakdown.

Definitely, that said i doubt we’ll ever see the actual breakdown. 
 

I suppose if the vocal minority did hurt it, it was probably just bringing it down from B+ to B, which is better tbh so their vague defense isn’t really false, which is why i posted. But i don’t buy it either that a small portion was responsible for the movie not getting some kind of A in front of it. 

[AniNate]

Just wait to see what the legs are like, might be a bunch of hemming and hawing over nothing like Civil War was

[ThomasNicole]

Just saw the movie, it’s very well made, i though it was decent overall. I never really expected it to match Reeves so i’m not disappointed that it never reached those highs. 
 

It does have a very strong feeling of something that is being rebuild tho, that this is largely a project to create new foundations to future movies rather than focus on really tells something more urgent now, not unlike Rise tbh but that movie was a bit more focused and didn’t have an entire trilogy as a shadow. 
 

It sustains itself well, but clearly their most interesting ideas is for the future. I’m sold for a new trilogy, their planted ideas here are solid, there’s room for improvement of appeal for sure, which is why i think 350-400M will probably be good enough to greenlit a sequel, it can blowup like Dawn.

[PlatnumRoyce]

28 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

That is obfuscation by omission.

 

 

 

 

How much of that 85 percent was A and how much was B? If say it was 25-60, the statement still is true but makes it clear that B was the default response. If they had broken it out, we would have likely seen it skew towards B way more than A.

 

That statement conveys literally nothing and is just a clever way of hiding the actual breakdown.

tl;dr I think the obvious reading is "a quarter to a third of the audience gave it an A grade."

 

 

It doesn't really work with posttrak anecdotes I've collected, but I believe in either Geortz's book audienceology or in an interview with him he says that a rule of thumb is ~100% of "A's" [probably not literally A's but "highest grade out of 5" means A] def recommend a film and ~50% of Bs recommend a film. Let's just handwave away the real world messiness for a second and make some assumptions. 

 

We know that postrak's % Recommend was below 60% (due to it not being included) and probably somewhere in the 50s and their overall % positive was 8 points lower than cinemascore (though cinemascore wasn't above what you'd expect from that posttrak score). Given that, let's treat 60 as a soft cap instead of a number the recommend score is clearly below. If you simply looked at postrrak "% positive" the median/mean result is a mid 50s recommend.

25 *1 + 60 * .5 = 55 % estimated recommend.

 

I doubt that's quite right given the (very arguably) mildly better result for cinemascore than posttrak but it's very much within the range of plausible. The low end of possible is probably around 20% (which would imply a low 50s recommend score)

 

But let's look at more anecdotes: Deadline dropped an anecdote about Skyscraper that it had a strong 38% of audiences give it an A grade and that the Revenant  had "close to half of women" give the film an excellent grade (so a subsplit). From that I suspect that if the film had 40%ish of the audience give it an A grade, they would simply say that. That also fits the back of the envelope math not supporting something close to a 40% "A" Grade score.

Edited May 12 by PlatnumRoyce

[filmnerdjamie]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Very strong SAT it seems 

 

I’m inclined to 57M if it holds

[Cooper Legion]

Mid 8s IM, makes sense. 

[emoviefan]

It will be up to Moms  tomorrow how close to 60 Apes can get.

[Rorschach]

9 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Twisters is Joker for the Midwest.

This guy gets it.

[kayumanggi]

Still early. I hope it goes higher.

[keysersoze123]

60m OW would be nice for Apes. That said this is the optimal movie to take your mom 🙂

[ringedmortality]

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice is Top Gun Maverick for goth women 

[Speedorito]

11 hours ago, Squire said:

And is this the director we really want directing a Zelda movie? No room for misses with that one, and Ball doesn’t seem like a slam dunk to me. 

Nintendo will probably have a very strong grip on the steering wheel with that film.

[Speedorito]

It’s interesting that Apes might go above projections. Maybe it would’ve normally been teetering on a B+ (which wouldn’t be awful since the previous trilogy consistently got an A-), but the 15% of people who gave it low scores gave it very low scores. Or maybe CinemaScore and vRT score (especially the latter) are starting to lose their luster/predictive value outside of CBMs. Next weekend should be telling.

[NoobSaibot]

I want Apes to knock on $60m, but I'm tempering my expectations.

[filmlover]

My theater was very crowded for Apes this evening. I can buy the good Saturday hold.

[Liiviig 1998]

7 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

It’s interesting that Apes might go above projections. Maybe it would’ve normally been teetering on a B+ (which wouldn’t be awful since the previous trilogy consistently got an A-), but the 15% of people who gave it low scores gave it very low scores. Or maybe CinemaScore and vRT score (especially the latter) are starting to lose their luster/predictive value outside of CBMs. Next weekend should be telling.

To be fair Apes is a franchise that skews Adult. It's not a CBM ,so never really thought that B was disaster. Overall think GA found it solid and it seems this is more of setting the stage and world kind of movie which maynot  sit well with some.

 

B CS isn't the death knell for everything and varies .

Nolan movies do fine with their B CS.

Anything in BS would be great for horror

and even most of your adult dramas.

 

It's only those movies with mass 4 quadrant appeal or fan heavy spillover with very volatile audiences.

 

CS is not losing its pull.

 

If this score was applied to CBM, Animation our typical heavy hitter crowdpleaser franchises . You would see terrible IM and disastrous second weekend drops and toxic WOM.

 

Just look at flash,Marvels,quantumania etc... last year.

 

 

 

 

 

[ChipDerby]

Wow a good Saturday hold who would've thought!! (Me)

[AnthonyJPHer]

I think the likelyhood of Kingdom having a sub 55m weekend is low, unless Jat overestimated, which is probably not likely, considering it’s been having amazing walkups, so my prediction is 57.5m if Sunday gives a good hold from Saturday.

 

Interestingly Kingdom would only be 400k away from Kung Fu Panda 4’s 57.9m weekend in March. 

Biggest Opening Weekends of 2024:

 

Dune: Part Two - 82.5m

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire - 80m

Kung Fu Panda 4 - 57.9m

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 55-57.5m

Edited May 12 by AnthonyJPHer