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Weekend Thread Sept 13th-15th

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1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Pretty much matching IT 1's true Friday drop. Not terrible but given it already lost more ground with the weekdays it's gonna need some real good Halloween spirit late in its run to get to $300mil.

 

Since last Saturday was really strong, I would not be surprised if we see another good Saturday increase for Beetlejuice. The only thing that worries me is how much Friday the 13th will take away from the weekend, but with how family-driven it's proven to be thus far, I think most people are waiting for Saturday to see it. 

 

I still think $300M domestically is possible, but I think we'll know if it'll get there or not by next weekend. For now, let's just hope it makes more than $50M this weekend and continues to show strong Friday-to-Saturday numbers. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Cooper Legion said:

75M week and 40% drops would be ~299M finish. Just outside of DOM top 100, could make it in with good 3rd weekend

 

TFOne is likely gonna hurt. It has better reviews, will be taking much of the PLF and presumably target audience interest. IT 1 also dropped 50% its third weekend against Kingsman's opening.

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13 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

TFOne is likely gonna hurt. It has better reviews, will be taking much of the PLF and presumably target audience interest. IT 1 also dropped 50% its third weekend against Kingsman's opening.

If the next week drops 50% would need 33%s from there to average 40. Will be hoping for more like 44.5% and then just need to average 37% forward 

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So, I’m really late on the whole box office catching up to 2023 discussion, but I decided I’ll add my two cents on the matter.

 

It honestly depends on how strong the big performers are from September-December.
 

I’m going to give a best case scenario for every movie playing from Beetlejuice Beetlejuice to Mufasa: The Lion King. Remember, these are my personal thoughts on the best case scenario totals for each film. I’m not saying they will reach these but what they’d need to reach in order to beat 2023. 

 

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice - 350m+

Transformers One - 150m+
The Wild Robot - 150m+
Joker 2 - 250m+ (but realistically 150m-200m)

Smile 2 - 120m+
Venom: The Last Dance - 250m+
Wicked - 300m

Gladiator II - 250m+
Moana 2 - 600m+
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim - 100m+
Kraven the Hunter - 100m+ (verrrrry doubtful. Out of every film in this list, this movie will bomb the hardest, I have no faith in this, but best case scenario)

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 - 300m+
Mufasa: The Lion King - 350-400m+

 

3.25B total.
 

Other contenders:

Red One - 80m+
Here - 70m+

A Complete Unknown - 50m+
Nosferatu - 30m+
Speak No Evil - 50m+

 

280m total. 
 

3.53B total. And that’s if every film preforms within or above expectations. 


We would be at 9.3B. Very unlikely though. 

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Still a decent amount of wiggle room where a "best case scenario" wouldn't be necessary. BOM's calendar tally for last year is $8.9 billion which leaves a $400 million margin for error. 

 

Also you can typically count on the collective of under the radar low budget releases bringing the rest of the year total up another 10%.

 

 

 

Edited by AniNate
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1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

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Eh, movies like this are pretty much textbook cases where you’re only going to see it if you already 100% agree with what it has to say, so it’s hard to be surprised by this. IIRC Unplanned got a A+ Cinemascore and that’s pretty much the same shit.

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I don't mind if "Am I racist?" goes higher ) I just wish that instead of Walsh it was made by someone reasonable/neutral and open-minded  like Coleman Hughes. His book "The end of race politics" is great. As for mockumentary thing, Borat-2 was meh and felt kinda scripted. The bit with Hanks was hilarious though.

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Honestly I'm starting to hope 2024 doesn't pass 2023 cause some of you are just really annoying with that "Oh my god I'm SOO worried now 2024 won't pass 2023. What will I do? Should I tell my parents? Will they kick me out of my house? Where are the PILLS???"

 

Worried...

 

Bruh. Sit your ass down and take a shit. That's something you should be worried about. How many shits you take per day and if your intestines are working and you're getting all that shit out.

Edited by justnumbers
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1 hour ago, cinema pal said:

I don't mind if "Am I racist?" goes higher ) I just wish that instead of Walsh it was made by someone reasonable/neutral and open-minded  like Coleman Hughes. His book "The end of race politics" is great. As for mockumentary thing, Borat-2 was meh and felt kinda scripted. The bit with Hanks was hilarious though.

 

Matt Walsh is the whole issue for everyone. I don't want him to be successful

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1 hour ago, justnumbers said:

Honestly I'm starting to hope 2024 doesn't pass 2023 cause some of you are just really annoying with that "Oh my god I'm SOO worried now 2024 won't pass 2023. What will I do? Should I tell my parents? Will they kick me out of my house? Where are the PILLS???"

 

Worried...

 

Bruh. Sit your ass down and take a shit. That's something you should be worried about. How many shits you take per day and if your intestines are working and you're getting all that shit out.

 

Well I guarantee you the anxiety isn't gonna stop if it starts looking less likely it might happen, so what you should be hoping for is a lot more breakout successes so the possibility seems much more likely and people ease up about it

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