May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[spizzer]

Nikki & others THR, Variety etc get early estimate from either the studio and where they think the film will be place and or from other studios/ exhibitors and what their options are on what films will do , distributors all have access to same data and can see what each other is doing and come up with their on estimates on what each other is doing.The hourly gross tracking that goes on during the day/eve only around 50% of theatres are polled (TA for eg its 48%) so a figure at say 3pm(6pm EC) is 48% of theatres, then through use of historical data comparisons etc work out what the rest of theatres did and then what the rest of the day holds, even looking at say a 6pm load if you look at a lot of historical comparisons to see at 6pm what they represented for the whole day , if you were off by just a few % it can throw you out millions, for example with HP DHpt2 a 2% swing would throw end of day estimate out by 10mil.Going into evening TA has gone up quite a lot and if comparing to THG it would put it well over 70mil, if you compared to other recording OD films like DH, NM BD could be a lot higher, but midnights especially plays havoc with working out OD estimates.

Which, in a nutshell, is what I've been saying all day

[vc2002]

So, it's going to beat the OW record anyway?

[keysersoze123]

Great to see RTH post. That is terrific to note studios are extrapolating based on just 48% of data. Of course with historical data from other theaters its always possible to be quite close IF they have data for all the markets.But the fact RTH feels it could make >> 70M still keeps OW record in play,

[spizzer]

So, it's going to beat the OW record anyway?

Dunno. Can't definitively take a stance with no hard figures

[Chewy]

So, it's going to beat the OW record anyway?

I can tell you with 100% certainty that the answer is maybe

[75Live]

I can tell you with 100% certainty that the answer is maybe

Best post of the thread

[keysersoze123]

Based on history I trust RTH more than Nikki. I would say Friday around New Moon friday which would translate to OW record for sure.

[The Dark Alfred]

It's gonna fly past 160m, but miss the OW record. Actually I think it has more chance of breaking the second weekend record if it manages a sub 55% drop. I expect TA to fall a tad short on that one as well. 72-73m. Will hit 400m with ease making it the new king of Marvel. What an awful year for Spidey.

[Chewy]

Based on history I trust RTH more than Nikki. I would say Friday around New Moon friday which would translate to OW record for sure.

But is it locked?

[iceroll]

I can tell you with 100% certainty that the answer is maybe

You've just been racking up those likes today Chewy. What is this, your 30th like of the day?

[MovieGuyKyle17]

UPDATE

FRIDAY 7:45 PM… REFRESH FOR LATEST… Rival studios tell me they expectMarvel’s The Avengers from Disney to open to $67M (within a range of $60M and $70M) today and around $160M (within a range of $157M-$165M) its first weekend in North America. No records going down yet. More later.

Edited May 5, 2012 by MovieGuyKyle17

[Chewy]

You've just been racking up those likes today Chewy. What is this, your 30th like of the day?

A hefty increase in likes for me

[vc2002]

I can tell you with 100% certainty that the answer is maybe

Thanks for you reply. Very informational.

[rockNrollaDIM]

UPDATE

FRIDAY 7:45 PM… REFRESH FOR LATEST… Rival studios tell me they expectMarvel’s The Avengers from Disney to open to $67M (within a range of $60M and $70M) today and around $160M (within a range of $157M-$165M) its first weekend in North America. No records going down yet. More later.

OMG.....

NIKKI = KAL

[FilmBuff]

I'll stake my reputation this movie doesn't gross less than 70 mil on Fri. The theaters were lined up when I drove by.

[iceroll]

UPDATE

FRIDAY 7:45 PM… REFRESH FOR LATEST… Rival studios tell me they expectMarvel’s The Avengers from Disney to open to $67M (within a range of $60M and $70M) today and around $160M (within a range of $157M-$165M) its first weekend in North America. No records going down yet. More later.

Yep, still within that range, when 4 or 5 updates in a row have basically the same number you know it pretty much won't change a lot in the end.

[RTX]

UPDATE

FRIDAY 7:45 PM… REFRESH FOR LATEST… Rival studios tell me they expectMarvel’s The Avengers from Disney to open to $67M (within a range of $60M and $70M) today and around $160M (within a range of $157M-$165M) its first weekend in North America. No records going down yet. More later.

LOL love this range..

Also, I doubt it going to increase much on Saturday, if it's going to increase at all. There are clear signs of frontloading.

[iceroll]

OMG.....NIKKI = KAL

I love how her daily range is larger than her weekend range. Way to extrapolate Nikki

[rockNrollaDIM]

A hefty increase in likes for me

I'm out of likes, or this too, would have been a hefty like.

[Noctis]

So a 7:45pm update and still doesn't have it breaking the OW record.