May 7 - 10, 2012 Weekday Numbers: AVENGERS 12.5 Thurs pg 61

[druv10]

I predicted 560-570 tops from the start while a lot of people were saying 700mil was possible!, i'm not even convinced by 570mil now as thos graphs make it look like TA will eventualy fall below TDK, i know its too early to judge the graphs yet but thats what it looks like to me.

You do know that TA will make much more on the weekends to TDK. Gap will start widening again on Friday.

[blackspider]

I predicted 560-570 tops from the start while a lot of people were saying 700mil was possible!, i'm not even convinced by 570mil now as thos graphs make it look like TA will eventualy fall below TDK, i know its too early to judge the graphs yet but thats what it looks like to me.

Remember that TDK was a July release that helped it have great weekdays which explains how TDK has closed the gap a bit. The Avengers is having great weekdays for a May release and it's going to continue to beat TDK on the weekends by a wide margin.

[doublejack]

Wednesday was ridiculously good for all movies.

I've been lurking on this forum for a while, so I know you have an agenda and are actively cheering against TA. However, I felt compelled to point this bit of reality out to you...TA is utterly dominating at the box office right now. Yesterday's haul of $13.61M represents $13.05M more than the #2 film. Put another way, the #2 film did a mere 4% of the business compared to the #1 film. The top 12 movies yesterday grossed a total of $17.08M, meaning TA reprsented 79.7% of the entire market. That's a massive share!That means, from a stastical standpoint, the other films are insignificant. Their business cannot be used as a basis for comparison. It is totoally irrelevant if other movies had a good Wednesday. When a film only grosses $500k, then gaining an additional 10,000 customers is important. That many more viewers means more than a 10% increase in the take. For a movie making $13.6M, though? 10,000 more tickets is half a percent! That much gets rounded off!!!People are specifically going to theaters to view TA, they're not getting there and then making a decision. Huge difference. Edited May 10, 2012 by doublejack

[Rovex]

Nice conveniant way of stopping the graph right as AVATAR was about to overtake TDK!.

Better?

[fishstick]

Nice conveniant way of stopping the graph right as AVATAR was about to overtake TDK!.

:lol:

[stuart360]

You do know that TA will make much more on the weekends to TDK. Gap will start widening again on Friday.

Yes i do which is why i said it was too early to judge. TA will keep needing big weekend holds to stay ahead of TDK (in the long run, not now obviously) but i can see its line falling flat quicker than TDK so it needs to keep ahead for a couple of months atleast.

[stuart360]

Better?

Cheers, keep it going.

[doublejack]

Remember that TDK was a July release that helped it have great weekdays which explains how TDK has closed the gap a bit. The Avengers is having great weekdays for a May release and it's going to continue to beat TDK on the weekends by a wide margin.

Exactly what I was getting at a page or two ago in this thread. If TA is the $600M monster it appears to be, the gap with TDK will widen, and it will happen on weekends.

[Rovex]

It would be poetic if all three lines converge at about day 28/29.. I doubt it though, it does look like TA will finish above TDK.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Rovex

[Shawn Robbins]

Not true, Nikke had 68M OD and he said 80, Nikke said 60M Saturday, he said 68-70, well before getting any actual number. He is much better at extrapolation compared to Finke.

I think you're misunderstanding how it works. Nikki said $68m on Friday. That was a projection based on rough data. Rth is literally seeing the data, as I understand it, after its come in on Saturday. He's telling us what it actually *did* do because he sees the numbers after they're already in. Nikki's numbers are actual projecting because they're based on incomplete data (thus, it requires more guesswork). The day isn't over when Nikki sends numbers -- the day *is* over when Rth sends them.

They're completely different methods and it would literally be almost impossible for Rth to give us that information with such a degree of accuracy at the same time Nikki posts her numbers.

Edited May 10, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Fake]

I think you're misunderstanding how it works. Nikki said $68m on Friday. That was a projection based on rough data. Rth is literally seeing the data, as I understand it, after its come in on Saturday. He's telling us what it actually *did* do because he sees the numbers after they're already in. Nikki's numbers are actual projecting because they're based on incomplete data (thus, it requires more guesswork). The day isn't over when Nikki sends numbers -- the day *is* over when Rth sends them.

They're completely different methods and it would literally be almost impossible for Rth to give us that information with such a degree of accuracy at the same time Nikki posts her numbers.

I think you missed his first update on Saturday which came 'before the day was over' and was pretty accurate.

[Biggestgeekever]

To be completely fair, Nikki's sources were say $68m because they thought matinee business slighty ahead of TDK in May would translate over the rest of the day, which is ludicrous. So if there's anyone to blame for that figure, it's whoever didn't give the sources a crash course in basic box office mechanics.

[blackspider]

To be completely fair, Nikki's sources were say $68m because they thought matinee business slighty ahead of TDK in May would translate over the rest of the day, which is ludicrous. So if there's anyone to blame for that figure, it's whoever didn't give the sources a crash course in basic box office mechanics.

Whichever source said 24m for THG's 2nd Friday deserved to be fired.

[druv10]

Yes i do which is why i said it was too early to judge. TA will keep needing big weekend holds to stay ahead of TDK (in the long run, not now obviously) but i can see its line falling flat quicker than TDK so it needs to keep ahead for a couple of months atleast.

You would have a point if TA only makes 90-95M 2nd weekend. If this makes 100-110M than TDK is going to have a hard time catching up. All of the gain TDK made during the week is going to be neutralized over the weekend. Key is how much TA gains over the weekend??

[druv10]

To be completely fair, Nikki's sources were say $68m because they thought matinee business slighty ahead of TDK in May would translate over the rest of the day, which is ludicrous. So if there's anyone to blame for that figure, it's whoever didn't give the sources a crash course in basic box office mechanics.

Maybe, but Nikke has a habit of doing this every week. Which puts her in the firing lines.

[druv10]

I think you're misunderstanding how it works. Nikki said $68m on Friday. That was a projection based on rough data. Rth is literally seeing the data, as I understand it, after its come in on Saturday. He's telling us what it actually *did* do because he sees the numbers after they're already in. Nikki's numbers are actual projecting because they're based on incomplete data (thus, it requires more guesswork). The day isn't over when Nikki sends numbers -- the day *is* over when Rth sends them.They're completely different methods and it would literally be almost impossible for Rth to give us that information with such a degree of accuracy at the same time Nikki posts her numbers.

As Fake pointed out. Rth had an early Friday number last week. Nikke at the time had a number of 68M and Rth came in said it looks like 80M was in play. After Rth's post Nikke upped her number to 70M and than later to 70-74M. He said he doesn't know why that number was being reported. Either Nikke's sources don't know what they are talking about or they are underestimating the movie he said. Edited May 10, 2012 by druv10

[DeeCee]

Some interesting theories here.

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah, Rth made his call way earlier than Shawn gives him credit for.

[Lordmandeep]

"It would be poetic if all three lines converge at about day 28/29.. I doubt it though, it does look like TA will finish above TDK."I think its almost a certainity.With 50% drops after the 2nd weekend till the end it still ends up around it.With no massive competition I think TA will get some 45-40% drops latter on.

[DAR]

Remember 68 or 80, not a record