JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Quigley]

I don't remember what happened at the time, but Corpse had a choice to leave or not. If he felt so offended by a specific user, then he could've just reported that user. We can't blame No Prisoners for the fact that Corpse left.

Edited April 27, 2016 by Quigley

[Mojoguy]

Corpse hasn't been tracking Zootopia's daily numbers. I guess he just doesn't care about the movie.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Corpse hasn't been tracking Zootopia's daily numbers. I guess he just doesn't care about the movie.

Or maybe he has a life.

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, Cynosure said:

 

I remember you saying it would top Spirited Away in yen, which it didn't.

The DVD was released. After holding flat for 12 weeks it began to decline 20% per week after the DVD announcement.

6 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

That just means that said user is conservative and knows how to level expectations. I've just gone and read a few of those pages and it seems like you really went full looney at some point with some predictions going as high as $400m (you even said above DOM at some point).

 

Though I do admit that some users are very sensitive here. This is the internet afterall.

Saying "never" reaching a level that it ultimately did was obvious thru simple calculatiobs is not conservative. It's just plain wrong. 

If it had a chance to run for a year like SA did or 9 months like titanic did, who knows where it could've gotten to. We'll never know. All bets where off with the DVD.

Easy to see 20/20 with hindsight.

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, Olive said:

No offense, but FD and corpse are far more valuable posters .

They are free to come back and put me on ignore or actually they don't have to do that. I don't initiate engagement.  I express my projections based on calculations and many have told me that they have been helpful. I never went out of my way to reply to their posts to tell them they were off and get a clue. They quoted me first, we're wrong,  and i let them know it. 

I recall one of your recent posts that was quoting me, started off with "lol, you think QM is going to be flat YOY? It's going to be up 30%."

It was close to flat. You're not God either. Your wrong a lot. Own up to it. I do.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 28, 2016 by No Prisoners

[fastclock]

30 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

They are free to come back and put me on ignore or actually they don't have to do that. I don't initiate engagement.  I express my projections based on calculations and many have told me that they have been helpful. I never went out of my way to reply to their posts to tell them they were off and get a clue. They quoted me first, we're wrong,  and i let them know it. 

I recall one of your recent posts that was quoting me, started off with "lol, you think QM is going to be flat YOY? It's going to be up 30%."

It was close to flat. You're not God either. Your wrong a lot. Own up to it. I do.

 

 

 

 

 

Wait a minute. There is no need for a poster to "own up" that their prediction is wrong. This is childish and you are in the wrong for it.

No one is blaming anyone else for a wrong prediction except you.

That is what rubbing people in the wrong way, and you really should stop that.

Otherwise, we will be losing more valuable posters left and right.

[POTUS 2020]

26 minutes ago, fastclock said:

 

Wait a minute. There is no need for a poster to "own up" that their prediction is wrong. This is childish and you are in the wrong for it.

No one is blaming anyone else for a wrong prediction except you.

That is what rubbing people in the wrong way, and you really should stop that.

Otherwise, we will be losing more valuable posters left and right.

Childish? I worked on wall street. You call out a prediction and tell others they are wrong, you better be right, or you own up to it by getting fired. I have fired dozens. Nothing childish in that.

Stay out of it

Edited April 28, 2016 by No Prisoners

[edroger3]

7 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Corpse hasn't been tracking Zootopia's daily numbers. I guess he just doesn't care about the movie.

 

7 hours ago, cannastop said:

Or maybe he has a life.

I don't think Corpse follows a movie boxoffice run because "he love it" or "he cares about it", simply, he follow a movie if its performance is interesting or noticeable for any reason: Zootopia, unfortunately, at the moment is far far away to this.

[LMAbacus]

8 hours ago, Cynosure said:

No clue. Translation gives " acquisition rate" but to what that refers escapes me.

 

I think it's just that 2/3rds number you mentioned, regarding how much of the market is being counted. It's the ratio between 取得館数 (screens accounted for) and 上映館数 (total screens). There's obviously an error regarding the new movies because their total screen count is incorrect.

[Jack]

I don't like the idea of some posters being superior or more valuable to the others. Even if it's true in some ways. And I don't know why.

[catlover]

12 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Childish? I worked on wall street. You call out a prediction and tell others they are wrong, you better be right, or you own up to it by getting fired. I have fired dozens. Nothing childish in that.

Stay out of it

 

That's the point. This is NOT Wall Street. It's a forum, where we can have fun talks, and healthy arguments, predictions or even competition without anyone getting fired or their lives ruined if they're wrong. If someone doesn't agree with you, you can argue but that's it. Nobody has to own up to it or whatever. Your statistics and calculations might be useful, but your "Wall Street" attitude rubs people the wrong way. It's making this thread not fun anymore. I mean bring your knowledge here by all means, but maybe not that attitude? I'm just saying.

 

Also, Corpse provided us with a lot of useful data and information, but we don't get those anymore, unless we copy them ourselves from another forum. I'm not saying he's more valuable than the other posters, but he did bring something valuable to this forum. And I feel that his absence here is a loss for us.

Edited April 28, 2016 by catlover

[cannastop]

12 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Childish? I worked on wall street. You call out a prediction and tell others they are wrong, you better be right, or you own up to it by getting fired. I have fired dozens. Nothing childish in that.

Stay out of it

Settle the fuck down, man. We're all just amateurs on this forum. And besides:

 

Edited April 28, 2016 by cannastop

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, catlover said:

 

That's the point. This is NOT Wall Street. It's a forum, where we can have fun talks, and healthy arguments, predictions or even competition without anyone getting fired or their lives ruined if they're wrong. If someone doesn't agree with you, you can argue but that's it. Nobody has to own up to it or whatever. Your statistics and calculations might be useful, but your "Wall Street" attitude rubs people the wrong way. It's making this thread not fun anymore. I mean bring your knowledge here by all means, but maybe not that attitude? I'm just saying.

 

Also, Corpse provided us with a lot of useful data and information, but we don't get those anymore, unless we copy them ourselves from another forum. I'm not saying he's more valuable than the other posters, but he did bring something valuable to this forum. And I feel that his absence here is a loss for us.

Who are you kidding. There are a lot of ugly battles in the forums as there are everywhere else in life. People get over it and move on. My attitude comes out when people give it. 

The thing that yall are over looking. Corpse did come back after then stopped again. He wasn't posting that much either way. Others were copying from KJ mostly as they are now.

[Cynosure]

2/3 of the market - Saturday :

 

Movie - Seats - Showtimes - Average seats/showtime - Theaters

 

Conan - 441,223 - 1,228 - 359.3 - 221

Zootopia - 297,380 - 1,197 - 248.4 - 223

Civil War - 291,729 - 1,304 - 223.7 - 228

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

Edited April 28, 2016 by Cynosure

[Finnick]

4 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

2/3 of the market - Upcoming weekend :

 

Movie - Seats - Showtimes - Average seats/showtime - Theaters

 

Conan - 441,223 - 1,228 - 359.3 - 221

Zootopia - 297,380 - 1,197 - 248.4 - 223

Civil War - 291,729 - 1,304 - 223.7 - 228

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

Any projection for weekend boxoffice for these three movies?

[Olive]

5 minutes ago, Cynosure said:

2/3 of the market - Upcoming weekend :

 

Movie - Seats - Showtimes - Average seats/showtime - Theaters

 

Conan - 441,223 - 1,228 - 359.3 - 221

Zootopia - 297,380 - 1,197 - 248.4 - 223

Civil War - 291,729 - 1,304 - 223.7 - 228

 

http://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/

Saturday only.

[Cynosure]

You're right. I edited.

 

@leatherjacket : Corpse should have an early forecast either today or tomorrow. 

 

 

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Usual Locations - Seating/Showtimes (Two-Thirds of Overall Market)

[Sat., 04/30]
TW (LW) Seats (% change), [Theaters/Showings], Film (Dis.) Week of Release
01 (01) 441,223 (-05%), [221/1,228], Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK3
02 (02) 297,380 (-14%), [223/1,197], Zootopia (Disney) WK2
03 (---) 291,729 (------), [228/1,304], Captain America: Civil War (Disney) NEW
04 (---) 200,638 (------), [222/1,124], Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) NEW
05 (---) 196,947 (------), [211/1,103], Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) NEW
06 (04) 153,064 (-15%), [218/841], Crayon Shin-chan: Fast Asleep! The Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK3
07 (03) 126,751 (-34%), [204/924], I Am a Hero (Toho) WK2
08 (05) 96,311 (-45%), [215/686], The Revenant (Fox) WK2
09 (---) 80,554 (------), [155/618], Scanner (Toei) NEW
10 (---) 59,351 (------), [127/455], Sea of Trees (Toho-Towa) NEW
11 (06) 45,849 (-64%), [98/321], Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimension (Toei) WK2
12 (07) 37,058 (-55%), [211/263], Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK6
13 (08) 34,296 (-46%), [214/221], Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) WK6
14 (10) 32,745 (-29%), [206/212], Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) WK7
15 (13) 31,904 (-04%), [205/206], Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK9
16 (12) 28,187 (-22%), [47/180], I've Always Liked You: Confession Executive Committee (Aniplex) WK2
17 (09) 25,947 (-55%), [90/192], The Fifth Wave (Sony) WK2
18 (16) 24,856 (-17%), [197/207], The Summit of the Gods (Toho) WK8
19 (11) 20,235 (-52%), [132/132], The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) WK7
20 (15) 18,319 (-44%), [108/111], Suspicious Woman (Shochiku) WK5
21 (14) 15,832 (-51%), [82/120], Spotlight (Long Ride) WK3
22 (18) 15,578 (-42%), [29/107], Sound! Euphonium (Shochiku) WK2
23 (19) 14,711 (-25%), [53/90], Thomas & Friends: Sodor’s Legend of the Lost Treasure (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK4
24 (23) 6,495 (-38%), [24/34], Kansai Johnnys' Jr. no Mezase ♪ Dream (Shochiku) WK3

Golden Week is upon us (04/29-05/06), so let's see how this year's slate can perform over one of Japan's busiest three weeks of the year.

>Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare continues its big advantage in terms of seating due to its breakout performance as it heads into its third weekend, occupying the largest screens and with ample showtimes. Can it stay atop the box office for a third consecutive weekend as a result? Most likely, yes, it'll once again claim the top spot over the weekend with ¥500-600 million, but two Disney films will prove to be stiff competition.

>Zootopia had a somewhat soft opening last weekend, though still impressive, but it has maintained a very healthy amount of seating/showtimes in its second weekend despite so many new openers. It should be able to experience either a minimal drop this weekend, or could possibly see a small increase as well, as it attempts to hold onto its second place position against a host of superheroes.

>Captain America: Civil War might be being handled as another Avengers film in most other markets (and may perform as such), but theater owners I believe realized that it's unlikely to perform as well as the Avengers if its seating/showtimes are any indication. If Spider-Man, and to a much lesser-extent, Iron Man, aren't the primary characters, then superhero films generally underperform in Japan.

However, by including so many other superheros, including those I mentioned, it's still likely to outperform any non-Spider-Man/Avengers film, but I don't see it reaching #1 and predict a close battle with Zootopia for second place this weekend with both films perhaps earning ¥400 million+.

>Terra Formars appears, based on seating/showtimes and early ticket sales (which aren't too far behind Civil War at the moment), to be settling for fourth place this weekend, but it's still shaping up for a nice opening. I haven't checked to see how it's performing at too many locations yet, though it looks like it could do ¥300 million or so over the weekend.

Also, it's worth mentioning, that to capitalize on potential foreign moviegoers (fans of the manga) who will be in Japan this Golden Week, Warner Bros. has provided select screenings of the film with English subtitles.

>Chihayafuru - Part 2 is a tricky one to predict. The second half of a film almost always decreases on opening weekend and in total compared to the first half, but Part 1 in this instance had a very soft opening and has since enjoyed great legs. I wouldn't rule out an opening above Part 1 (¥179 million), and ¥200 million+ might be attainable.

Overall, while this year's Golden Week is looking strong, even if the weekend openers themselves aren't blockbuster material.

I'll provide regular updates, almost daily, during this year's Golden Week. The strongest days of this year's Golden Week will be today (Friday), Sunday, and then Tuesday through Thursday.

[Cynosure]

Marvel/DC Box-Office History


Top Opening Weekends
¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) - Spider-Man (2002)
¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
¥793.9 million ($6.5 million) - Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
¥580.9 million ($7.4 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man (2012)
¥500.9 million ($6.3 million) - The Avengers (2012)
¥420.3 million ($4.1 million) - The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014)
¥414.7 million ($4.3 million) - Iron Man 3 (2013)
¥372.0 million ($4.6 million) - The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) - Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016)
¥368.9 million ($3.4 million) - Superman Returns (2006)
¥361.9 million ($3.1 million) - X2: X-Men United (2003)
¥333.2 million ($3.1 million) - The Dark Knight (2008)
¥290.2 million ($2.7 million) - Batman Begins (2005)
¥276.6 million ($2.4 million) - X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)
¥272.5 million ($2.7 million) - X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014)
¥268.3 million ($2.8 million) - Man of Steel (2013)
¥264.6 million ($2.9 million) - Iron Man 2 (2010)
¥247.5 million ($2.1 million) - Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007)
¥224.1 million ($2.1 million) - Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
¥211.7 million ($2.0 million) - Iron Man (2008)
¥204.7 million ($1.9 million) - Fantastic Four (2005)
¥200.4 million ($1.7 million) - Ant-Man (2015)
¥198.4 million ($1.9 million) - Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014)
¥194.3 million ($1.6 million) - Daredevil (2003)
¥187.1 million ($1.8 million) - Thor: The Dark World (2014)
¥184.3 million ($1.9 million) - The Wolverine (2013)
¥176.8 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)
¥160.9 million ($1.4 million) - Hulk (2003)
¥158.5 million ($1.9 million) - X-Men: First Class (2011)
¥129.9 million ($1.6 million) - Thor (2011)
¥109.7 million ($1.2 million) - Watchmen (2009)
¥88.3 million ($1.1 million) - Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)
¥65.1 million ($0.6 million) - Catwoman (2004)
¥42.6 million ($0.6 million) - The Green Lantern (2011)
¥41.5 million ($0.4 million) - The Incredible Hulk (2008)

 

¥400 million+ would be twice as high as CA2 but half as low as AOU.

Edited April 29, 2016 by Cynosure

[cannastop]

　*1　*20227　ズートピア (Zootopia)

　*2　*19732　シビル・ウォー キャプテン・… (Captain America 3)

　*3　*19462　名探偵コナン２０１６ 純黒の… (Detective Conan 2016)

 

And Zootopia is taking the lead. Also, there are a few late night showing scheduled for this day, so it might keep its lead.