JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Olive]

not good, not bad.

[kayumanggi]

But you said, it was not good.

[Corpse]

So normal = not good?

It's a pretty good drop. It's around $7 million already, so $15-20 million is the likely range for it's total.

[Rudolf]

Pixar 2nd weekendBrave 1.3Cars2 3.2TS3 11.2Up 6.0Wall-E 4.5Rat 2.2Cars 2.5incredibles 4.8

[Corpse]

July 28-29

Weekend Ranking

1 (1) Umizaru: Brave Hearts (Toho) Week 3

2 (-) The Dark Knight Rises (Warner Bros.) NEW

3 (-) Naruto: Path to Ninja (Toho) NEW

4 (2) The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki (Toho) Week 2

5 (3) Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (Toho) Week 3

6 (-) Eight Ranger (Toho) NEW

7 (4) Heruta Skelter (Asmik Ace) Week 3

8 (5) Brave (Disney) Week 2

9 (6) The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) Week 5

10 (8) Go Anpanman! Revive Banana Island (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) Week 4

'Umizaru: Brave Hearts' wins it's third-consecutive week on top. After 17 days, the film has exceeded 2.5 million admissions and 3.5 billion yen ($45 million).

'The Dark Knight Rises' debuted on 546 screens to 269,170 admissions to gross 372,024,700 ($4.7 million) yen over the weekend. It's 3-day total, including Friday previews, comes to 455,180,800 yen ($5.8 million) on 331,668 admissions. A strong opening, the best for a non-Spider-Man superhero film, that should give it 2.5-3 billion yen ($30-35 million).

'Naruto: Path to Ninja nearly tripled the opening of it's predecessor with 254,025 admissions and a gross of 302,080,500 yen ($3.9 million) over the weekend on 262 screens. A Naruto film hasn't hit the 1 billion yen ($12.5 million) mark in a couple years, but this one is locked to do it.

'Wolf Children' exceed 1 billion yen ($12.5 million) after just 9 days, running on par with Ghibli's 'Kokuriko Hill' from last year. 4 billion yen ($50 million) may happen.

'Eight Ranger' opened in sixth place on 155 screens with 122,160 admissions to gross 157,836,200 yen ($2 million) during the weekend.

'Pokemon' stays in the Top 5 and exceed 1.5 million admissions and 1.6 billion yen ($20 million) after 16 days.

Edited July 30, 2012 by Corpse

[Fullbuster]

Fairy Tail the Movie could have good numbers.

[bballman24]

Well satisfactory rating by pia (a bit like cinemascore) had TDKR as the #1 so people seem to like it there

[Corpse]

This Weekend's Top 3 were within 50,000 admissions of one another:

Umizaru: Brave Hearts - 303,434 admissions; ¥414,230,450 ($5.30 million), -25.1%, Week 3

The Dark Knight Rises - 269,170 admissions; ¥372,027,700 ($4.75 million), NEW

Naruto: Path to Ninja - 254,025 admissions; ¥302,080,500 ($3.86 million), NEW

'Umizaru: Brave Hearts' total was also greatly underestimated in the Weekend Ranking update. The new estimate after 17 days is 3 million admissions and ¥3.80 billion ($48.60 million).

Umizaru: Brave Hearts Weekly Breakdown:

Week 1 - 1.22 million admissions; ¥1.56 billion ($19.81 million), 4-Day Opening

Week 2 - 2.18 million admissions; ¥2.78 billion ($35.58 million), 10-Day Total

Week 3 - 3.00 million admissions; ¥3.80 billion ($48.60 million), 17-Day Total

I'm thinking it will steamroll the openers in August and log 7-9 weeks in first. Should be over ¥5 billion ($65 million) by August 11th heading into Obon Week which will decide if ¥7.5 billion+ ($100 million) can happen.

Edited July 31, 2012 by Corpse

[Corpse]

[2012 Box Office Charts

As of Sunday, 07/29:

Top Grossing Films (¥1 billion+)

Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor

01 :: ¥5.90 / $75.34 (13.66x) :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 4.64 :: 93 :: Toho

02 :: ¥5.38 / $70.55 (9.39x) :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount

03 :: ¥3.82 / $48.84 (4.35x) :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: July :: 2.99 :: 17 :: Toho

04 :: ¥3.59 / $45.40 (6.50x) :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 3.32 :: OE :: Toho

05 :: ¥3.40 / $43.31 (6.12x) :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.66 :: OE :: Toho

06 :: ¥3.28 / $42.32 (5.21x) :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 2.74 :: OE :: Toho

07 :: ¥3.16 / $40.98 (5.51x) :: MIB 3 :: May :: 2.12 :: TE :: Toho-Towa

08 :: ¥3.10 / $40.84 (5.34x) :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.39 :: OE :: Toho

09 :: ¥2.89 / $37.09 (4.96x) :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 1.94 :: 30 :: Sony

10 :: ¥2.51 / $31.27 (8.50x) :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 2.10 :: OE :: Asmik Ace/Toho

11 :: ¥2.40 / $30.36 (5.16x) :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 1.85 :: OE :: Toho

12 :: ¥2.20 / $27.50 (7.00x) :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.76 :: OE :: Toho

13 :: ¥2.16 / $27.21 (5.35x) :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 1.71 :: TE :: Warner Bros.

14 :: ¥1.96 / $24.49 (6.46x) :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.67 :: TE :: Warner Bros.

15 :: ¥1.90 / $23.74 (6.01x) :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.45 :: OE :: Shochiku

16 :: ¥1.83 / $23.42 (5.85x) :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 1.48 :: 51 :: Toho

17 :: ¥1.80 / $23.17 (6.49x) :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.40 :: TE :: FOX

18 :: ¥1.71 / $22.01 (5.45x) :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 1.37 :: TE :: Asmik Ace/Toho

19 :: ¥1.71 / $21.98 (5.67x) :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 1.33 :: 45 :: Toho-Towa

20 :: ¥1.70 / $21.97 (6.15x) :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.36 :: OE :: Toho

21 :: ¥1.63 / $20.91 (3.21x) :: Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo :: July :: 1.57 :: 16 :: Toho

22 :: ¥1.56 / $19.86 (3.81x) :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 1.34 :: TE :: TOEI

23 :: ¥1.55 / $19.85 (4.06x) :: Space Brothers :: May :: 1.21 :: TE :: Toho

24 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 (4.01x) :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI

25 :: ¥1.50 / $19.28 (5.13x) :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 1.18 :: OE :: Toho-Towa

26 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 (10.42x) :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho

27 :: ¥1.45 / $18.92 (6.41x) :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: OE :: Walt Disney

28 :: ¥1.43 / $18.72 (9.47x) :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI

29 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 (8.47x) :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho

30 :: ¥1.37 / $17.37 (5.57x) :: Sadako 3D :: May :: .969 :: TE :: Kadokawa Pictures

31 :: ¥1.28 / $15.66 (5.54x) :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: TE :: Sony

32 :: ¥1.20 / $15.41 (5.17x) :: Heruta Skelter :: July :: .919 :: 16 :: Asmik Ace

33 :: ¥1.20 / $15.36 (7.04x) :: Puss in Boots :: Mar. :: .925 :: OE :: Paramount

34 :: ¥1.18 / $15.29 (5.84x) :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho

35 :: ¥1.14 / $14.81 (9.47x) :: Chronicle of My Mother :: Apr. :: .876 :: TE :: Shochiku

36 :: ¥1.12 / $14.58 (8.11x) :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '10 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho

37 :: ¥1.09 / $14.13 (4.96x) :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa

38 :: ¥1.04 / $13.05 (2.82x) :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: July :: .804 :: 9 :: Toho

39 :: ¥1.03 / $12.70 (5.28x) :: Crayon Shin-chan (2012) :: Apr. :: .963 :: TE :: Toho

40 :: ¥1.03 / $12.67 (5.88x) :: Hugo :: Mar. :: .732 :: TE :: Paramount

41 :: ¥1.02 / $12.65 (5.23x) :: Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future :: Mar. :: .881 :: TE :: TOEI

'Umizaru' adds over 1 billion to it's total again this week and enters the Top 3. It won't be long before it surpasses 'Mission Impossible' and unseats 'Thermae Romae' for #1 for the year.

'Pokemon' moves up 14 spots on the chart. It'll continue it's climb up the charts and reach the Tpp 10, maybe the Top 5, by the end of August.

'Heruta Skelter' and 'Wolf Children' debut on the charts after 16 and 9 days in release. The latter is keeping up with Studio Ghibli's 'Kokuriko Hill' from last year, so expect it to see it near the top of the charts sometime soon.

***************************************************************

***************************************************************

Top Opening Weekends (2-Days ONLY, ¥200 million+)

Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor

01 :: ¥878.23 / $11.08 :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: July :: 686.98 :: 450 :: Toho

(¥1.563 / $19.91 :: 1.223 :: 4-Day Opening Weekend)

02 :: ¥629.74 / $7.82 :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 540.98 :: 351 :: Toho

03 :: ¥583.89 / $7.61 :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 426.16 :: 1,092 :: Sony

(¥901.46 / $11.32 :: 620.21 :: 2-Day Opening Weekend Plus Previews)

04 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho

05 :: ¥573.57 / $7.35 :: MIB 3 :: May :: 372.97 :: 979 :: Toho-Towa

(¥701.80 / $8.80 :: 461.85 :: 3-Day Opening Weekend)

06 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount

(¥725.83 / $9.29 :: 563.25 :: 3-Day Opening Weekend)

07 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho

08 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho

09 :: ¥509.94 / $6.42 :: Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo :: July :: 489.86 :: 351 :: Toho

(¥753.76 / $9.61 :: 724.07 :: 3-Day Opening Weekend)

10 :: ¥468.70 / $5.81 :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 351.47 :: 279 :: Toho

11 :: ¥432.55 / $5.40 :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 325.69 :: 304 :: Toho

12 :: ¥410.04 / $5.06 :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentei: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 355.99 :: 292 :: TOEI

13 :: ¥404.53 / $5.05 :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 311.16 :: 571 :: Warner Bros.

14 :: ¥382.32 / $4.87 :: Space Brothers :: May :: 285.34 :: 322 :: Toho

15 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI

16 :: ¥372.02 / $4.75 :: The Dark Knight Rises :: July :: 269.17 :: 546 :: Warner Bros.

(¥455.18 :: $5.81 :: 331.67 :: 2-Day Opening Weekend Plus Previews)

17 :: ¥365.15 / $4.67 :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: July :: 276.33 :: 381 :: Toho

18 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku

19 :: ¥314.89 / $3.97 :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 242.92 :: 297 :: Asmik Ace/Toho

20 :: ¥314.70 / $3.96 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho

21 :: ¥313.66 / $3.95 :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 242.82 :: 316 :: Toho

22 :: ¥303.35 / $3.77 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros.

23 :: ¥302.08 / $3.86 :: Naruto: Path to Ninja :: July :: 254.03 :: 262 :: Toho

24 :: ¥301.78 / $3.75 :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 234.87 :: 572 :: Toho-Towa

(¥374.83 / $4.71 :: 296.16 :: 3-Day Opening Weekend)

25 :: ¥295.31 / $3.67 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Asmik Ace/Toho

26 :: ¥292.16 / $3.65 :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 237.87 :: 545 :: Toho-Towa

(¥364.01 / $4.52 :: 298.15 :: 3-Day Opening Weekend)

27 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX

28 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho

29 :: ¥246.41 / $3.08 :: Sadako 3D :: May :: 154.15 :: 214 :: Kadakowa Pictures

30 :: ¥233.53 / $3.04 :: Heruta Skelter :: July :: 174.24 :: 204 :: Asmik Ace

31 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony

32 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney

33 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa

34 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho

'The Dark Knight Rises' and 'Naruto: Road to Ninja' enter the chart opening above ¥300 million each.

[subscript]-KEY-

New Entry

Indicates a film still in release or being tracked.

Days in Release: TE (Tracking Ends, Awaiting OE/FT) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)[/subscript]

Edited July 31, 2012 by Corpse

[Rudolf]

So SM3 and TASM make about the same for 7days now: $3.5m, but TASM makes more weekdays and SM3 made more on the weekend?

[Corpse]

Yes, Spider-Man 3 was still in release during school (schools don't go on break until mid-July in Japan) so it's weekends are stronger than The Amazing Spider-Man's, while it's weekdays are weaker. Most films gross the same during the weekdays as they do on weekends year-round (50-50 split), but during the Summer (mid-July through late-August) weekdays are much, much stronger than weekends. The split will be about 65 (weekdays) - 35 (weekends) until the end of August.But I will stress again that comparing USD grosses is very inaccurate. The exchange rate is way different now than it was in 2007. 2007: US$1 = 122 yen VS. 2012: US$1 = 79 yen.

Edited July 31, 2012 by Corpse

[lab276]

How's the summer shaping up compared to other years? Does it look pretty strong?

[Corpse]

Weaker than 2008 (Ponyo), Better than 2009, Weaker than 2010 (record July with Bayside 3, Arrietty, and Toy Story 3), and depending on where films like Wolf Children end up, on par with 2011. I'll post a comparison Top 5 chart soon.

[Corpse]

Summer Showdown

(May through August releases)

Rank - Gross (multiplier) - Film - Release - Admissions - Distributor

2008

1. ¥15.50 billion / $164 million (15.1x) :: Ponyo :: July :: 12.87 :: Toho

2. ¥7.75 billion / $86 million (7.7x) :: Boys Over Flowers :: June :: 6.38 :: Toho

3. ¥5.71 billion / $63 million (3.9x) :: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull :: June :: 4.2 :: Paramount

4. ¥4.80 billion / $53 million (7.1x) :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior - Shaymin :: July :: 4.56 :: Toho

5. ¥3.95 billion / $42 million (6.3x) :: 20th Century Boys: Chapter One :: August :: 3.1 :: Toho

2009

1. ¥8.55 billion / $94 million (7.0x) :: Rookies :: May :: 6.96 :: Toho

2. ¥8.00 billion / $88 million (8.2x) :: Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince :: July :: 6.2 :: Warner Bros.

3. ¥4.67 billion / $52 million (7.1x) :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life :: July :: 4.45 :: Toho

4. ¥4.41 billion / $49 million (5.1x) :: 20th Century Boys: The Last Chaper :: August :: 3.4 :: Toho

5. ¥4.00 billion / $44 million (7.5x) :: Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance :: June :: 3.1 :: KlockWorx

2010

1. ¥10.80 billion / $130 million (11.1x) :: Toy Story 3 :: July :: 7.2 :: Disney

2. ¥9.25 billion / $112 million (10.4x) :: The Borrower Arrietty :: July :: 7.7 :: Toho

3. ¥7.31 billion / $88 million (7.5x) :: Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! :: July :: 5.6 :: Toho

4. ¥4.16 billion / $50 million (6.6x) :: Pokemon D&P: Master of Illusions - Zoroark :: July :: 4.02 :: Toho

5. ¥3.85 billion / $46 million (14.3x) :: Confessions :: June :: 3.1 :: Toho

2011

1. ¥9.67 billion / $125 million (7.4x) :: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 :: July :: 6.9 :: Warner Bros.

2. ¥8.87 billion / $114 million (7.4x) :: Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides :: May :: 5.85 :: Disney

3. ¥4.46 billion / $58 million (11.5x) :: From Kokuriko Hill :: July :: 3.6 :: Toho

4. ¥4.33 billion / $56 million (8.1x) :: Pokemon BW: Black - Victini and Reshiram / White - Victini and Zekrom :: July :: 4.2 :: Toho

5. ¥4.25 billion / $55 million (7.4x) :: Transformers: Dark of the Moon :: July :: 2.8 :: Paramount

Projected 2012

1. ¥7-8 billion / $90-100 million (8-9x) :: Umizaru: Brave Hearts :: July :: 5.5-6 :: Toho

2. ¥6.10 billion / $77 million (14.1x) :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 4.8 :: Toho

3. ¥4.10 billion / $53 million (11.2x) :: The Wolf Children Ame and Yuki :: July :: 3.3 :: Toho

4. ¥3.90 billion / $50 million (7.6x) :: Pokemon BW: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo :: July :: 3.8 :: Toho

5. ¥3.50 billion / $45 million (6.0x) :: The Amazing Spider-Man :: June :: 2.3 :: Sony

The lack of a Hollywood Blockbuster this Summer weakens 2012's Summer (the overall Summer is still stronger than 2011 though), but thankfully Toho saved 'Bayside Shakedown 4' for September and Sony has 'Resident Evil V' in September as well to make up for this.

If a film had less than one week in April, I included it.

Edited July 31, 2012 by Corpse

[Fake]

What do you expect TDKR to finish with, Corpse?

[Corpse]

2.5-3 billion (low-mid 30's)The highest grossing, non-Spider-Man, superhero film ever.

Edited July 31, 2012 by Corpse

[keysersoze123]

2.5-3 billion (low-mid 30's)The highest grossing, non-Spider-Man, superhero film ever.

That will be an average run considering summer weekdays, obon week etc. Plus the ratings are all great. Is that the average prediction or best case scenario.

[Fullbuster]

I'm excited about The Avengers release there..Success or failure?

[JCS]

I'm excited about The Avengers release there..Success or failure?

Same!How is the hype in Japan with just over 2 weeks until release?

[Corpse]

That will be an average run considering summer weekdays, obon week etc. Plus the ratings are all great. Is that the average prediction or best case scenario.

The most likely range, so I suppose the average prediction. The multiplier should be 7-8, giving it 2.6-3 billion ($33-38 million). It could still hit $40, but that's the best case. The only films that get the multiplier near or over 10 this time of year are the well-received animated films.It may not seem like a lot, but think about this: That's nearly double The Dark Knight, and more than Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, X-Men: First Class, and The Incredible Hulk combined. Edited July 31, 2012 by Corpse