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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

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Industry Forecast

 

¥20B - How Do You Live?

¥15B - SLAM DUNK 

¥10B - Mission Impossible VII

¥7B - The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones 

¥6B - Mario 

¥5B - The Elementals, Tokyo Revengers II (Part I &II), Kingdom III

¥4B - Fast X, Spider-Man Anime, Nolan, Doraemon 2023, Avatar 2, Demon Slayer 

 

as of 31 March 2023

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Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

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7 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Why would How Do You Live be so much bigger than The Wind Rises? Is it just hopeful given the return of Ghibli? 

I don't know. That's Industry Forecast.

 

Example

IF was ¥7B for Avatar 2 - did ¥4.30B

IF was ¥9B for TGM - did ¥13.71B

IF was ¥8B for Kingdom II - did ¥5.16B

 

You never which one disappoints and works. Only Forecast after release &Audience ratings is worthy.

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LPLC Box Office Gold

LPLC

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5 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

I don't know. That's Industry Forecast.

 

Example

IF was ¥7B for Avatar 2 - did ¥4.30B

IF was ¥9B for TGM - did ¥13.71B

IF was ¥8B for Kingdom II - did ¥5.16B

 

You never which one disappoints and works. Only Forecast after release &Audience ratings is worthy.

Is it the last Miyazaki movie ?

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MG10 Box Office Gold

MG10

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On 4/1/2023 at 7:47 PM, Issac Newton said:

Industry Forecast

 

¥20B - How Do You Live?

¥15B - SLAM DUNK 

¥10B - Mission Impossible VII

¥7B - The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones 

¥6B - Mario 

¥5B - The Elementals, Tokyo Revengers II (Part I &II), Kingdom III

¥4B - Fast X, Spider-Man Anime, Nolan, Doraemon 2023, Avatar 2, Demon Slayer 

 

as of 31 March 2023

 

One would expect the industry forecasts to be quite conservative so it's more likely that the films will surprise and overperform (like the colleagues usually do in Usa), but here I see Miyazaki, Little Mermaid, Elementals and Spider-Verse all quite high...

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Flip Sleeper Hit

Flip

Posted
Posted
On 4/1/2023 at 1:47 PM, Issac Newton said:

Industry Forecast

 

¥20B - How Do You Live?

¥15B - SLAM DUNK 

¥10B - Mission Impossible VII

¥7B - The Little Mermaid, Indiana Jones 

¥6B - Mario 

¥5B - The Elementals, Tokyo Revengers II (Part I &II), Kingdom III

¥4B - Fast X, Spider-Man Anime, Nolan, Doraemon 2023, Avatar 2, Demon Slayer 

 

as of 31 March 2023

10B for mission impossible would be great, almost double fallout

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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

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On 4/1/2023 at 1:49 PM, SchumacherFTW said:

Why would How Do You Live be so much bigger than The Wind Rises? Is it just hopeful given the return of Ghibli? 

Why would it not? Miyazaki is more a legend and icon now than ever before, anime is bigger in Japan than ever before, and The Wind Rises was Miyazaki in name only. It is not his typical fantasy foray, which my understanding HDYL is supposed to be that on a grand, epic scale, ala Mononoke or Spirited. 

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Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

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5 hours ago, MG10 said:

 

One would expect the industry forecasts to be quite conservative so it's more likely that the films will surprise and overperform (like the colleagues usually do in Usa), but here I see Miyazaki, Little Mermaid, Elementals and Spider-Verse all quite high...

Answer is actually simple. Industry is actually not giving up hope on Disney &Pixar. If when Avatar 2 debut below Avatar with 10x more IMAX Screens &All-Time Widest Screen Share. Still IF was ₹7B. It was Disney hitting ¥10B (thinking it would be TGM)

 

I think Spider-Man is worthy looking how it will do 4x more than Prequel (¥900M). Rest seems fine unless disappointed later.

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Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

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2 hours ago, Flip said:

10B for mission impossible would be great, almost double fallout

Yeah, M.I.7 &M.I.8 are expected to do like early series numbers of M.I. (¥6.5B) &M.I.2 (¥9.7B). 

Passing ¥5.0B doesn't seem difficult (Thanks to TGM). 

 

Oppenheimer is opening on same date. 1 week after Miyazaki &1 week before Kingdom III (¥5B Franchise)

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Issac Newton Global Phenomenon

Issac Newton

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On 4/2/2023 at 1:19 AM, SchumacherFTW said:

Why would How Do You Live be so much bigger than The Wind Rises? Is it just hopeful given the return of Ghibli? 

 

16 hours ago, LPLC said:

Is it the last Miyazaki movie ?

It's almost on Production for 7 years. So probably you all can understand why IF is so high for this work.

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SchumacherFTW Global Phenomenon

SchumacherFTW

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4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

It's almost on Production for 7 years. So probably you all can understand why IF is so high for this work.

I get it's been in production for a long time, but it's not like ticket prices have gone up a ridiculous amount. I'm just not convinced it's going to go far beyond the range that Howl, Ponyo and Wind Rises pulled. 

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I get it's been in production for a long time, but it's not like ticket prices have gone up a ridiculous amount. I'm just not convinced it's going to go far beyond the range that Howl, Ponyo and Wind Rises pulled. 

Howl was pretty much 20b (19.60). Otherwise I agree, but who knows, there's quite a bit of buzz on it, plus anime is doing exceptional at the BO, maybe nostalgia can give this one a kick. I am thinking lower on almost every imported film on that list as well.

Edited by JustLurking
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