JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[LABAS]

Maybe idk. Sundays are bigger than Saturdays and then there's the increase in ticket price..it could be close!

 

I think it will be a little under though, Labas will probably be able to make a better estimate

Well, to tell the truth , I think if tomorrow's TOHO number is around 65000, I am very satisfied....

I dare not say 70000....it's not reasonable...but of course , it it happens, I will be very elated !

[edroger3]

Unless tomorrow TOHO number is over 71500...that will be totally crazy...

Just a +5% from last sunday.....

[LABAS]

Compared with last Saturday, Frozen dropped only 6.2 % but all the other movies dropped at least 30 %...Doraemon more than

50%..

[Rsyu]

Well, to tell the truth , I think if tomorrow's TOHO number is around 65000, I am very satisfied....

I dare not say 70000....it's not reasonable...but of course , it it happens, I will be very elated !

 

Yup, no need to be disappointed if it doesn't beat Ponyo. 

 

Beating HMC is a must, Ponyo would be a bonus.

 

When does detective conan come out??

[LABAS]

Just a +5% from last sunday.....

Considering next Monday is TOHO day (discount day), some people might go to the movies on 14th

rather than tomorrow....so, 5% increase is not easy...

[LABAS]

Yup, no need to be disappointed if it doesn't beat Ponyo. 

 

Beating HMC is a must, Ponyo would be a bonus.

 

When does detective conan come out??

April 19th, next Saturday !

Everyone says there will be an intensive competition between these two animations...

It is estimated that both movies will earn around 6m and CA2 will be dead...(Japanese forum)

[edroger3]

April 19th, next Saturday !

Everyone says there will be an intensive competition between these two animations...

It is estimated that both movies will earn around 6m and CA2 will be dead...(Japanese forum)

Will be an head-to-head between an opening movie and a movie that had already grossed 100M$........

[Incarnadine]

From WOKJ (Corpse)

 

Biggest 5th Weekends [¥300 millon+] (2004-)

¥851 million* - Ponyo (2008)

¥704 million - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)

¥527 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)

¥521 million* - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)

¥518 million - Avatar (2009)

¥478 million - The Wind Rises (2013)

¥474 million* - Arrietty (2010)

¥467 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)

¥449 million - Crying Out Love, in the Center of the World (2004)

¥440 million - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)

¥439 million - Alice in Wonderland (2010)

¥433 million - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)

¥421 million - Toy Story 3 (2010)

¥414 million - Rookies (2009)

¥409 million* - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)

¥399 million* - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (2006)

¥376 million  - The Eternal Zero (2013)

¥365 million - The Da Vinci Code (2006)

¥356 million - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)

¥352 million - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)

¥346 million - The Ecstasy Hotel (2006)

¥334 million* - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)

¥330 million - Monsters University (2013)

¥317 million - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)

¥315 million - Hero (2007)

¥309 million - Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005)

 

*Holiday weekend

 

What's really crazy is that Frozen's Saturday alone is enough to put it #17 on the all time 5th weekend list.

[LABAS]

Will be an head-to-head between an opening movie and a movie that had already grossed 100M$........

And the following week will be killed by amazing spider man 2 and Roma  Thermae 2...

[mfantin65]

Showdown. If Frozen continues to hold like Howl's MC and Ponyo...Howl's MC................Ponyo.....................Frozen............WE...........TOT..........WE..........TOT............MW.......WE.........TOT13.988.....13.998.......9.667.......9.667.....................7.531......9.73111.680.....44.430.......7.591.....30.416......11.300...8.550....29.535..9.832.....65.878.......7.210.....48.924......13.400...8.569....51.579..9.165.....81.210.......7.012.....66.966......15.200...8.300....75.100..8.200.....97.000.......7.904.....92.309........7.500...7.000....89.500 Estimate WE 20% drop. MW 50% drop...7.500...112.000.......5.359...106.482........6.800...6.300..102.600 10% drop. Could hold 100%. ..6.866...125.703.......4.715...116.169........6.000...5.300..113.900 15% WE drop, 10% MW drop. TAMS2 opens...6.171...145.795.......3.496...124.186......10.000...6.500..130.400 Summer over for Ponyo. GW should triple week 7 tally over next 2 weeks...3.367...154.556.......2.406...128.568........8.000...4.800..143.200 In 2008 2nd MW held 1st MW in later part of GW. Holiday over for HMC..3.323...159.840.......1.433...132.326........4.500...4.200..151.900 GW over, hopefully legs like Howl please....2.464...163.425.......0.913...134.862........3.800...3.500..159.300 Legs, baby, legs!!..1.817...166.170.......0.750...139.589........2.800...2.600..164.700 June..1.812...170.218.......0.642...140.710........3.400...3.000..171.400 Sing along!..1.219...172.561.......0.394...141.808........2.800...2.600..176.800 Run Forest Run!..1.090...174.104.......0.388...142.486........2.000...2.000..180.800Ext.........190.000.......Ext.......154.000.........Extended........200.000 !!!! For the first time in forever..a 200m moviePonyo and Howl's MC had extended runs like Avatar and Titanic. Maybe Frozen extends into July

Yup. Above is going to happen

[catlover]

Showdown. If Frozen continues to hold like Howl's MC and Ponyo...Howl's MC................Ponyo.....................Frozen............WE...........TOT..........WE..........TOT............MW.......WE.........TOT13.988.....13.998.......9.667.......9.667.....................7.531......9.73111.680.....44.430.......7.591.....30.416......11.300...8.550....29.535..9.832.....65.878.......7.210.....48.924......13.400...8.569....51.579..9.165.....81.210.......7.012.....66.966......15.200...8.300....75.100..8.200.....97.000.......7.904.....92.309........7.500...7.000....89.500 Estimate WE 20% drop. MW 50% drop...7.500...112.000.......5.359...106.482........6.800...6.300..102.600 10% drop. Could hold 100%...6.866...125.703.......4.715...116.169........6.000...5.300..113.900 15% WE drop, 10% MW drop. TAMS2 opens...6.171...145.795.......3.496...124.186......10.000...6.500..130.400 Summer over for Ponyo. GW should triple week 7 tally over next 2 weeks...3.367...154.556.......2.406...128.568........8.000...4.800..143.200 In 2008 2nd MW held 1st MW in later part of GW. Holiday over for HMC..3.323...159.840.......1.433...132.326........4.500...4.200..151.900 GW over, hopefully legs like Howl please....2.464...163.425.......0.913...134.862........3.800...3.500..159.300 Legs, baby, legs!!..1.817...166.170.......0.750...139.589........2.800...2.600..164.700 June..1.812...170.218.......0.642...140.710........3.400...3.000..171.400 Sing along!..1.219...172.561.......0.394...141.808........2.800...2.600..176.800 Run Forest Run!..1.090...174.104.......0.388...142.486........2.000...2.000..180.800Ext.........190.000.......Ext.......154.000.........Extended........200.000 !!!! For the first time in forever..a 200m moviePonyo and Howl's MC had extended runs like Avatar and Titanic. Maybe Frozen extends into July

 

Yup. Above is going to happen

 

Except it won't drop 20% in its 5th weekend and 10% in its 6th weekend. It's the other way around. With that Sat number there's no way it's gonna drop 20% this weekend. And with strong competition from Conan, it will be hard to have a 100% hold in its 6th weekend. But, so far so good. I think we can use your showdown here, compare it with the actual numbers to see where Frozen will end up.

Edited April 12, 2014 by catlover

[seduh]

amazing run! I want Frozen to make $150, something more and more likely every day

[Corpse]

The fifth biggest weekends charts someone posted is only from 2004, and it has a couple errors on it (Howl's 7th weekend instead of its 5th, and estimates for a couple others).

 

Here is the updated list, along with the 5-week totals for each film:

 

Biggest Fifth Weekends/Five Week Totals (2001-)

 

Fifth Weekend (% change) / 5-Week Total -> Final Total - Film

¥1.069 billion (+10%) / ¥10.52 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)

¥890.0 million (-06%) / ¥13.26 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)

¥889.1 million (-07%) / ¥9.86 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)

¥888.9 million (+16%) / ¥10.47 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)

¥851.2 million (+13%) / ¥9.94 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)

¥834.5 million (+47%) / ¥7.50 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)

¥782.5 million (+44%) / ¥6.68 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)

¥765.0 million (-10%) / ¥9.10 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *early projection*

¥756.6 million (-18%) / ¥9.69 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

¥526.7 million (-23%) / ¥8.37 billion -> ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)

¥520.8 million (-07%) / ¥6.95 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)

¥518.4 million (+02%) / ¥7.00 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)

¥499.1 million (-01%) / ¥5.14 billion -> ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)

¥478.7 million (+25%) / ¥6.47 billion -> ¥9.25 billion - Arrietty (2010)

¥473.8 million (-07%) / ¥7.28 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)

¥467.1 million (-29%) / ¥7.10 billion -> ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)

¥449.5 million (-01%) / ¥4.92 billion -> ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)

¥439.6 million (-16%) / ¥7.03 billion -> ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)

¥438.5 million (-16%) / ¥9.34 billion -> ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)

¥433.1 million (-41%) / ¥8.52 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)

¥420.8 million (-32%) / ¥6.66 billion -> ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)

¥417.6 million (-31%) / ¥8.34 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)

¥414.3 million (-33%) / ¥6.77 billion -> ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)

¥409.0 million (+11%) / ¥7.42 billion -> ¥9.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)

¥401.1 million (-14%) / ¥5.17 billion -> ¥8.75-8.90 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)

¥400 million+

[mfantin65]

Except it won't drop 20% in its 5th weekend and 10% in its 6th weekend. It's the other way around. With that Sat number there's no way it's gonna drop 20% this weekend. And with strong competition from Conan, it will be hard to have a 100% hold in its 6th weekend. But, so far so good. I think we can use your showdown here, compare it with the actual numbers to see where Frozen will end up.

the table is from Tuesday. Its over performing my optimistic -20% estimate. Most movies drop 30-60% the weekend after SB.Conan is mostly for kids, its weekday box office reflects that in the past. In light of this tight hold. 10% is likely next weekend. The following weekend has more competition but w 3d dubbed and sing along it may hold flat followed by a GW bump. The table will be updated after Tuesday's number in order to gauge the week.This hold, unprecedented after SB, GW, obon, new year or summer is another confirmation that it will exceed 200m. Edited April 13, 2014 by mfantin65

[druv10]

Per Corpse

 

Frozen is still holding very, very well, down just 8% compared to last Saturday. If Sunday follows a similar pattern to last week's, then the weekend drop will be around 10-12%. Whether the weekend drop is over/under 10% doesn't rally matter considering how impressive either number is.

If it drops 10%, the weekend gross will be around ¥765 million ($7.5 million), and its 5-week total will exceed ¥9 billion for sure I believe. ¥9.1 billion ($89 million) looks likely after Sunday, its 31st day in release.


Biggest Fifth Weekends/Five Week Totals (2001-)

Fifth Weekend (% change) / 5-Week Total -> Final Total - Film
¥1.069 billion (+10%) / ¥10.52 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥890.0 million (-06%) / ¥13.26 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥889.1 million (-07%) / ¥9.86 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥888.9 million (+16%) / ¥10.47 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)
¥851.2 million (+13%) / ¥9.94 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥834.5 million (+47%) / ¥7.50 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥782.5 million (+44%) / ¥6.68 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥765.0 million (-10%) / ¥9.10 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *early projection*
¥756.6 million (-18%) / ¥9.69 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥526.7 million (-23%) / ¥8.37 billion -> ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥520.8 million (-07%) / ¥6.95 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥518.4 million (+02%) / ¥7.00 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥499.1 million (-01%) / ¥5.14 billion -> ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥478.7 million (+25%) / ¥6.47 billion -> ¥9.25 billion - Arrietty (2010)
¥473.8 million (-07%) / ¥7.28 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥467.1 million (-29%) / ¥7.10 billion -> ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥449.5 million (-01%) / ¥4.92 billion -> ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥439.6 million (-16%) / ¥7.03 billion -> ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥438.5 million (-16%) / ¥9.34 billion -> ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥433.1 million (-41%) / ¥8.52 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥420.8 million (-32%) / ¥6.66 billion -> ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥417.6 million (-31%) / ¥8.34 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥414.3 million (-33%) / ¥6.77 billion -> ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥409.0 million (+11%) / ¥7.42 billion -> ¥9.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
¥401.1 million (-14%) / ¥5.17 billion -> ¥8.75-8.90 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥400 million+

[LABAS]

the table is from Tuesday. Its over performing my optimistic -20% estimate. Most movies drop 30-60% the weekend after SB.Conan is mostly for kids, its weekday box office reflects that in the past. In light of this tight hold. 10% is likely next weekend. The following weekend has more competition but w 3d dubbed and sing along it may hold flat followed by a GW bump. The table will be updated after Tuesday's number in order to gauge the week.This hold, unprecedented after SB, GW, obon, new year or summer is another confirmation that it will exceed 200m.

 Looking at the showtimes in GW, I find that Frozen will suffer from a huge cut of seats.

 In some theaters, the English version will stop screening.

[catlover]

the table is from Tuesday. Its over performing my optimistic -20% estimate. Most movies drop 30-60% the weekend after SB.Conan is mostly for kids, its weekday box office reflects that in the past. In light of this tight hold. 10% is likely next weekend. The following weekend has more competition but w 3d dubbed and sing along it may hold flat followed by a GW bump. The table will be updated after Tuesday's number in order to gauge the week.This hold, unprecedented after SB, GW, obon, new year or summer is another confirmation that it will exceed 200m.

 

Yeah dropping 10% or less post holiday is unprecedented. Conan's main demographics are kids, teens, and surprisingly people in the 20s. Also, 65-70% are females. I hope it doesn't hit Frozen that hard. But at the same time I hope Frozen won't effect Conan that much either, because I'm a fan of Detective Conan. I want Conan to open with the usual number (6-7m), while Frozen still has the same drop as this weekend.

Edited April 13, 2014 by catlover

[Olive]

Big increase on Sunday.

[LABAS]

Afternoon.................... M ........T..........W .........T.......... F ........ S ......... SFirst............................................................18517--29035--38186Second......9396--10976--21854--12231--33278--32340--39828Third........14958--19027--46478--25446--21273--29380--44173Fourth......25661--41430--43550--25701--22309--28912--39206Fifth.........11969----6527--15260---4465----3965--25002---38584Evening................... M ........ T ........ W ........ T ......... F ........ S ........ SFirst............................................................49224--58491--64414Second... 19967--21651--43281--26963--68297--67663--72506Third .......28363--34679--83765--40795--37218--58906--80440Fourth......40807--69958--74515--39964--38667--61448--67696Fifth.........22202--15224--35286--11375---13861--57650

[Omni]

Yeah dropping 10% or less post holiday is unprecedented.

 

And just when you're all excited by Frozen's saturday number, Corpse arrives and cools you down:

 

 

Its first full post-Spring Break week is looking at about a 40% drop, so it's not going to pull a Spirited Away, Howl's Moving Castle, Princess Mononoke, or Avatar type mid/late-run, which all maintained their holiday numbers for many weeks or months after the holidays were over.[...]

Conan should take most of the bigger screens, and combined, they should cut into Frozen's hold onto the rest.