JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

funny how the thread got real quiet on Thursday and then just exploded again Saturday. how many people threw in the towel on Thursday, come on admit it

[Omni]

A 6% post-SB drop. A 5th weekend above OW, and not in the middle of a holiday.

If it's a dream, don't wake me up!

 

mfantin better keep being right on this freaking beast! I could play the conservative attitude 20 more times if that helped (just as a good-luck charm), but I'm not in the mood anymore.

 

Is anything about a winter soldier doing I-dont-know-how-much in China?

When is Rio's sequel opening? Oh, it already did? Really?

Spider Man is coming with his nth borefest? Good for him, let him find a fly in his meal.

 

Just meteors, I'll pass by. The last chapter in the 'box office history' book is all about Frozen!

 

Oh, and Keanu Reeves is my baby!

mfantin, when do you want me to solve my debt?

 

Edit: I didn't!

Edited April 13, 2014 by Omni

[mfantin65]

The day it crosses 116.5m til the day it closes in japan. Blonde keanu

[edroger3]

On march Eren Jaeger / Corpse said:

 

Multiplier breakdown:

 

Less than 3: I've never seen a film have less than this, so I don't believe it's doable...

 

Less than 5: Usually reserved for films with very niche appeal or very poorly received films released in January, February, June, or October (the four weakest months of the year).

 

5-7: The norm. The vast majority of releases end up in this range. Even sequels and yearly installments such as Detective Conan or Pokemon have no problem getting here. Films with bad reviews can sometimes pull of a 5, too.

 

8-10: Films that earn a multiplier in this range usually have holiday support and are released during robust times of the year. Great reviews and WOM also play a big role here. Also, films that play nearly exclusively to the senior demo generally have no problems ending up here.

 

10+: Wide-scale appeal, plays well with the 40+ audience (the biggest demo in Japan), and has great reviews. A multiplier of this level almost always requires a release date around Obon (July) or New Year (December) to go this high, too, though there are a few exceptions.

 

15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only one was released outside of July and December.

 

I think that Frozen OW multiplier is 12X after a monty. It's right? If yes, is that insane?

 

And from boxofficemojo:

 

Movie         Opening     %open Total gross

Avatar   $6,890,387 3.7% $186,753,197
Gake no ue no Ponyo (Ponyo on a Cliff)   $9,667,033 5.9% $164,565,997
Odoru daisosasen the movie 2               $10,489,418  6.8% $155,138,312
The Last Samurai                           $8,355,132 7.0% $119,268,595
Hauru no ugoku shiro (Howl's Moving Castle)   $13,998,152  7.4% $190,000,000
Frozen (2013) $7,531,463 8.5% $89,000,000
Toy story 3 $11,156,768  8,8% $126,605,533

Monsters University $8,374,662 9.3% $90,141,508
The Borrowers (Kari-gurashi no Arietti) $10,223,318  9.3% $110,013,058
Finding Nemo   $10,331,939 10.1% $102,441,470
The Fellowship of the Ring   $6,888,116  10.1% $68,132,622
Alice in Wonderland (2010)   $14,032,610 10.5% $133,694,649
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol   $7,372,730  10.6% $69,695,185
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $6,904,890  10.6% $65,021,313
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets $16,676,912 11.7% $142,786,414
Hero (2007) $8,709,670  11.9% $73,109,846
Sutekina kanashibari (Once in a Blue Moon)   $6,441,066  11.9% $53,982,636
Umizaru 3 (The Last Message)               $11,333,086 12.0% $94,786,753
Umizaru 4 $11,045,479 12.1% $91,331,832
Chi bi: Xia - Jue zhan tian xia               $6,821,001  12.1% $56,374,881
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince   $10,239,565 12.2% $83,776,293
Gedo senki (Tales from Earthsea)   $7,856,923  12.3% $63,786,538
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire $11,374,170 12.4% $91,438,660
(Pokemon: Best Wishes)   $6,682,575  12.5% $53,387,786
Space Battleship Yamato                       $6,274,087  12.8% $49,163,295
Chi bi (Red Cliff: Part I)   $6,752,188  12.9% $52,418,016
Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows(Part Two) $16,106,042 13.0% $124,331,909
Bayside Shakedown 3: Set the Guys Loose $11,095,820 13.0% $85,245,510
Transformers 3   $7,073,135  13.1% $54,167,274
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End   $12,093,262 13.3% $91,119,039
 

Edited April 13, 2014 by edroger

[chuck0]

On march Eren Jaeger / Corpse said:

 

Multiplier breakdown:

 

Less than 3: I've never seen a film have less than this, so I don't believe it's doable...

 

Less than 5: Usually reserved for films with very niche appeal or very poorly received films released in January, February, June, or October (the four weakest months of the year).

 

5-7: The norm. The vast majority of releases end up in this range. Even sequels and yearly installments such as Detective Conan or Pokemon have no problem getting here. Films with bad reviews can sometimes pull of a 5, too.

 

8-10: Films that earn a multiplier in this range usually have holiday support and are released during robust times of the year. Great reviews and WOM also play a big role here. Also, films that play nearly exclusively to the senior demo generally have no problems ending up here.

 

10+: Wide-scale appeal, plays well with the 40+ audience (the biggest demo in Japan), and has great reviews. A multiplier of this level almost always requires a release date around Obon (July) or New Year (December) to go this high, too, though there are a few exceptions.

 

15+: Everything that a 10+ film has, but also includes repeat viewings. The Japanese rarely go to the movies, much less to see the same film two or more times (TV remains very popular in Japan). But when they do, big things happen. Fewer than 10 films have earned a 15+ multiplier in the past 15 years, and only one was released outside of July and December.

 

I think that Frozen OW multiplier is 12X after a monty. It's right? If yes, is that insane?

 

Frozen opened on a friday so its two day OW was a little deflated... still, i am pretty sure that what is happening here is completely crazy... i mean it already has a 12x multiplier in a weekend that is still larger than its OW which was already pretty big to begin with

Edited April 13, 2014 by chuck0

[seduh]

What a way to finish! Japan run for Frozen is just amazing. It will make $150 for sure there

[mfantin65]

If it drops less than 7% average the next 2 weekends. I will have to mention HP.

[Rsyu]

If it drops less than 7% average the next 2 weekends. I will have to mention HP.

 

[mfantin65]

is that a crazy emoticonI. I was called crazy when I said 130 million back in February you want a little wraht don't you lol

[mfantin65]

I'm on the road tomorrow morning. I can't surf numbers and drive 95 miles an hour at the same time. The multiplier should be 52 tomorrow based on the Toho discount on opening day plus the price hike. Get your abacus labas.30k Toho. 1.6 m would be descent.

[Rsyu]

is that a crazy emoticonI. I was called crazy when I said 130 million back in February you want a little wraht don't you lol

 

Well, you were crazy. It just so happened Frozen's Japan run was just as crazy as you

 

Beating Deathly hallows part 2 would require $230M more from current gross and $320M overall. I mean really?

Edited April 14, 2014 by Rsyu

[BadAtGender]

Well, you were crazy. It just so happened Frozen's Japan run was just as crazy as you

 

Beating Deathly hallows part 2 would require $230M more from current gross and $320M overall. I mean really?

 

It would kinda fit, though. I mean, if Frozen's going to go out with a bang, why not do what it hasn't done anywhere: become the #1 movie of all time in a territory. (At least, it hasn't as far as I know. It's the #1 animated in a lot, though.)

[mfantin65]

Well, you were crazy. It just so happened Frozen's Japan run was just as crazy as you  Beating Deathly hallows part 2 would require $230M more from current gross and $320M overall. I mean really?

why did spirited away do 300 million and why can't frozen to 300 million or some other movie eventually? must ask the right questions Danielson and contemplate possible answers and the unknown shall become known. on Tuesday you said I'm not ready for this number, how wrong was that statement, I mean, really?Btw. I didn't mention HP yet.

[Rsyu]

why did spirited away do 300 million and why can't frozen to 300 million or some other movie eventually? must ask the right questions Danielson and contemplate possible answers and the unknown shall become known.on Tuesday you said I'm not ready for this number, how wrong was that statement, I mean, really?Btw. I didn't mention HP yet.

 

Well not at all wrong actually, it was expected maybe but still a horrible number and I didn't like it. Don't see how there's a right or wrong there. The other weekdays and weekend restored my faith though.

 

SA did $300m? I thought it was 3bil in yen and the dollar amount was $250-270m or something. Maybe if you showed me in a chart how Frozen would get to $300M and beyond I'd put more faith in those predictions

[mfantin65]

Well not at all wrong actually, it was expected maybe but still a horrible number and I didn't like it. Don't see how there's a right or wrong there. The other weekdays and weekend restored my faith though. SA did $300m? I thought it was 3bil in yen and the dollar amount was $250-270m or something. Maybe if you showed me in a chart how Frozen would get to $300M and beyond I'd put more faith in those predictions

SA did 300b yen. Xchange was different, $230m. 25m admissions. Corpse got to dig up its weekend run.

[Ray]

I like how the predictions for Frozen in Japan are starting to surpass the most optimistic pre-release predictions for Frozen from the US & Canada.

[BadAtGender]

I think someone earlier in one of the threads posted what Spirited Away's gross would be at the current exchange rate. It was just shy of $300m.

[catlover]

Yeah Spirited Away did 30b yen, which equals around $230m with 2001-2002 exchange rates. But like DamienRoc said, making 30b yen now means it's making near $300m.

[LABAS]

BO updated.The weekend bo is 840.25m Yen98.8% of the last weekend.The total is 9.284 b Yen.

[mfantin65]

BO updated.The weekend bo is 840.25m Yen98.8% of the last weekend.The total is 9.284 b Yen.

you can't put a "reasonable" finite ceiling on this action. Just minimums. Right now 15multiplier equaling 15% drops, not yet occured, is reasonable. 215m7.5% drops, average is below that since sb peak = 25x = 290m