JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Tower]

10 hours ago, BollyNumbers said:

Anybody can tell me what is the Lifetime collection of Baabubali 2 in Japan. 

According to Japanese media report it collected around ¥ 130 million till 28 march. 

 

 

Corpse from KJ directed to this, which would be about ¥140M:

 

Edited April 10, 2018 by Tower

[Cynosure]

Corpse :

 

Upcoming Release Schedule (Major & Notable Releases)

04/13:
[360] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Toho)
[354] - Crayon Shin-chan: Bakumori! Kung-Fu Boys Ramen Rebellion (Toho)
[319] - Pacific Rim: Uprising (Toho-Towa)

04/20:
[306] - Inuyashiki (Toho)
[188] - Ready Player One (Warner Bros.)

04/21:
[073] - Liz and the Blue Bird (Shochiku)

04/27:
[317] - Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)
[293] - Marmalade Boy (Warner Bros.)
[286] - My Little Monster (Toho)

05/04:
[322] - Laplace's Witch (Toho)
[176] - 12 Strong (Gaga)
[087] - Suburbicon (Star Channel)

05/11:
[188] - Love x Doc (Asmik Ace)

05/12:
[332] - The Blood of Wolves (Toei)
[071] - Then Youth, But Youth (Nikkatsu)

05/18:
[326] - Nomitori Samurai (Toho)
[291] - Peter Rabbit (Sony)
[167] - Rampage (Warner Bros.)
[159] - Godzilla: The City Mechanized for the Final Battle (Toho Video Division)

05/19:
[071] - Kamen Rider Amazons: The Movie (Toei)
[071] - Mori, the Artist's Habitat (Nikkatsu)

05/25:
[335] - What a Wonderful Family! 3: My Wife, My Life (Shochiku)
[300] - After the Rain (Toho)
[184] - Friendship (Gaga)
[105] - All the Money in the World (Kadokawa)

05/26:
[079] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion III - The Imperial Path (Showgate)

*Preliminary theater counts in [brackets]; subject-to-change (especially for 3D/IMAX releases distributed by Disney/Warner Bros.).
*Colored films are their expected or potential gross ranges (see below).

Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited.
101-149: Wide.
150-199: Below Average.
200-249: Standard.
250-299: Above average.
300-349: Very wide.
>350: Optimal.

Color Gross Key:
Black: <¥1 billion (<$10 million)
Red: ¥1.00-1.99 billion ($10-19 million)
Green: ¥2.00-2.99 billion ($20-29 million)
Blue: ¥3.00-4.99 billion ($30-49 million)
Silver: ¥5.00-¥9.99 billion ($50-99 million)
Gold: >¥10 billion (>$100 million)

 

[Valonqar]

Please japan let PRU bomb! 

[Stewart]

28 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Please japan let PRU bomb! 

It's literally going up against the TFA of Japan. Conan has been increasing in recent years and has a legitimate chance of breaking the OW record... 

 

If it doesn't bomb, then it would be a bloody miracle!

[a2k]

What are the prospects of RPO in Japan? $20+ possible?

[manny1234]

@a2knet If you are looking for such answers about RPO potential performance in Japan, Here what Corpse from WOKJ said:

It shouldn't disappoint or bomb, but I don't see any signs that a breakout is likely to happen either. Warner Bros. is doing an effective marketing campaign from what I'm gathering, so I expect it'll have a solid/good performance. Maybe a total around ¥2.5-3 billion (~$25-30 million) or so? We'll see. 

The biggest question is what demographic will this one be appealing to, exactly? I think it needs to bring in audiences from various demos, because I don't see any single demo coming out in significant numbers. The young male/adult crowd that's probably boosting it in the U.S. is well catered to in Japan already, so it's not a reliable demo for imported films to rely on.

The Japanese poster is certainly much better than the U.S. or any other I've seen, and displays the characters most likely to garner the most attention from Japanese audiences (Gundam, Kong, T-Rex, Iron Giant, and The DeLorean):
 

[a2k]

29 minutes ago, manny1234 said:

@a2knet If you are looking for such answers about RPO potential performance in Japan, Here what Corpse from WOKJ said:

It shouldn't disappoint or bomb, but I don't see any signs that a breakout is likely to happen either. Warner Bros. is doing an effective marketing campaign from what I'm gathering, so I expect it'll have a solid/good performance. Maybe a total around ¥2.5-3 billion (~$25-30 million) or so? We'll see. 

The biggest question is what demographic will this one be appealing to, exactly? I think it needs to bring in audiences from various demos, because I don't see any single demo coming out in significant numbers. The young male/adult crowd that's probably boosting it in the U.S. is well catered to in Japan already, so it's not a reliable demo for imported films to rely on.

The Japanese poster is certainly much better than the U.S. or any other I've seen, and displays the characters most likely to garner the most attention from Japanese audiences (Gundam, Kong, T-Rex, Iron Giant, and The DeLorean):
 

Thanks, that is what I was looking for. ~$25-30 would be great. Apart from animations or blockbusters like POTC, FB, BATB I don't think $25-30 is easy in Japan for Hollywood films.

Edited April 11, 2018 by a2knet

[manny1234]

No Problem @a2knet

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, feasby007 said:

It's literally going up against the TFA of Japan. Conan has been increasing in recent years and has a legitimate chance of breaking the OW record... 

 

If it doesn't bomb, then it would be a bloody miracle!

I didn't know it's going against Conan. That series is indeed getting bigger and bigger.

 

 

[Cynosure]

There can be several big films at the same time in Japan. Think of Yôkai Watch and Star Wars both opening with over 1 billion yen on the same weekend. 

[Cynosure]

The drops are really really ugly today for animated movies. At the moment we're at around 65-70% for Coco, 88% for Boss Baby and 95% for Doraemon. Looks like Coco is holding the best among the bunch. I don't think weekend holds will be as bad...but I guess we'll see.

 

Per Corpse, "pretty much all the holdovers suffered 50%+ drops in seating/showtimes".

 

 

Edited April 13, 2018 by Cynosure

[Stewart]

Conan had a roughly ¥300M opening day Friday, from what I can tell. That's about $2.8M, will get proper estimate from Corpse soon including forecast for weekend  

[Cynosure]

And yesterday Corpse mentioned that Saturday was looking at least "4 times greater", evenings aside I would guess.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Cynosure said:

And yesterday Corpse mentioned that Saturday was looking at least "4 times greater", evenings aside I would guess.

Don't take too much exactness on my estimate. Am using a guessed ticket price, but should be in the 250-350 ballpark.

 

4x was for presold seats, now imagine the fact that more seats for Saturday would've sold throughout Friday...

 

¥1B Sat and usually Sunday is massive for Animations, are we talking the potential for ¥2B OW?

 

[Cynosure]

Looking back, last year's movie's OW average price was around 1,300 yen.

[Hei25]

Comparing Detective Conan OD, is on par with Doraemon's 2nd Saturday. So we can expect a 310.000-330.000 Yen OD.

Expect a Saturday 4 times bigger than Friday is a bit too much, but a x2.5 can be reachable. So a my bet is an OW btw 1.350.000-1.425.000 Yen.

 

I'm really anxious about Corpse forecast. I'm a big fan of the franchise so if it can break some record that will be very great.

Edited April 13, 2018 by Hei25

[Cookson]

I hope Godzilla: Monster Planet 2 doubles what the first did. That shouldn't be too hard considering the first only did 4m there, and it's a summer release. I guess having Mechagodzilla will boost some interest too. Predicting a 10m total for that. Would be odd if it made more than that.

[Stewart]

AHHH!

 

Corpse:

 

 

Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer had a very, very strong Friday, selling around 275,000 admissions to earn ~¥350 million $3.3 million) or so based on my estimates. And this was after "poor" morning/afternoon showings due to school and work. Once the evening showings began, it more than doubled its morning and afternoon showings (10-12 hours) in a 3-4 hour time frame.

Saturday will be significantly bigger, possibly twice as big, and I'll have the advance ticket sale figure for the day posted soon, along with comparisons to the films that have debuted above ¥1 billion since 2015.

 

Highest Pre-Sales (2015-)

Pre-Sales/Available Tickets (Capacity) [Theaters/Showings] - Film (Year)
138,795/463,289 (29.9%) [155/1795] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
134,399/440,369 (30.5%) [160/1793] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
126,032/441,270 (28.6%) [163/1645] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
117,302/398,355 (29.4%) [154/1095] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
116,563/320,351 (36.3%) [150/1073] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
114,570/445,179 (25.7%) [148/1522] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
113,434/417,488 (27.1%) [159/1147] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
x94,641/361,514 (26.1%) [149/1006] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
x93,216/446,234 (20.9%) [159/1580] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)

These pre-sales are from ~43% of the entire market. But when I post the hourly updates later, they'll be from ~68% of the entire market (Aeon Cinemas, the largest chain in the country, is excluded from the pre-sales).

This pretty much guarantees a debut above the ¥1 billion mark over the weekend frame, which doesn't even include its Friday results. Its pre-sales are slightly behind last year's film, but last year's didn't release early on a Friday either. It's also worth noting that last year's film was ahead of the 2016 release by 24% in pre-sales, but ended up closing the weekend out by topping it by 6%.

I'll post the hour-to-hour updates in comparison to the same films above -- all the ¥1 billion+ openers since 2015 -- over the weekend, beginning tonight. 

[Stewart]

Massive Saturday incoming, at 18:19 it's got a chance to be the biggest ever. 

 

Corpse wrote:

Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 10PM > FINAL

39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 - Detective Conan 22

Compared To Most Recent ¥1 billion+ Openers (2015-):

43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5*
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast

Saturday Results (Two-Thirds of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings] - Film Title 
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)*
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: Darkest Nightmare (2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)

*Saturday fell on a holiday or nationwide discount ticket day.

[Cynosure]

Coco is doing amazing too. Only a 14% drop for the day as of 7 pm.