JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Issac Newton]

Analyst tweet : "Sony based Marvel movies are much popular than Disney based Marvel..."

日本は、ディズニー系のマーベル映画はあまり人気ないけど、ソニー系のマーベル映画は、人気だよね。

— Nara (@YukiNara12) December 9, 2021

日本でのスパイダーマン人気の高さがうかがえる。 https://t.co/3WN25dWKdO

— Nara (@YukiNara12) December 9, 2021

Edited December 9, 2021 by Issac Newton

[Issac Newton]

At beginning, I mentioned that ¥9B is upper-limit for SM:NWH....Now, with 376% improvement in 1st 3-days advance booking over FFH, ¥10B+ looks possible if it continues the trend 

 

Previous films:

SM: Hom. : ¥2.80B

SM: FFH   : ¥3.06B

[pepsa]

12 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

At beginning, I mentioned that ¥9B is upper-limit for SM:NWH....Now, with 376% improvement in 1st 3-days advance booking over FFH, ¥10B+ looks possible if it continues the trend 

 

Previous films:

SM: Hom. : ¥2.80B

SM: FFH   : ¥3.06B

Well 376% more presalles doesn't mean 376% more total. Even if OW is 20m super hero movies often struggle to get great multipliers. And a movie with insane upfront demand often has worse legs so even if the first weekend goes insanely high i think 10b would be very very unlikely. The only way it get close to 10b (or more) is if it has breakout word of mouth and behaves like a normal movie in japan.

[charlie Jatinder]

I will be more than happy if this do 5B in Japan.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

Well 376% more presalles doesn't mean 376% more total. Even if OW is 20m super hero movies often struggle to get great multipliers. And a movie with insane upfront demand often has worse legs so even if the first weekend goes insanely high i think 10b would be very very unlikely. The only way it get close to 10b (or more) is if it has breakout word of mouth and behaves like a normal movie in japan.

Yes, but there are exceptional cases since people here like Spiderman &Venom more than other MCU characters. I did not mean improvement in presales is equal to finals but that 10B is possible if trends continue. We do not know the exact presale amount but still that OW will be huge, almost displacing FFH in Week 1 if trends continue. What ever it might, Sony will displaced all the MCU releases in Week 1. And recently Venom is preforming strong and better than what it's overseas ratings was.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I will be more than happy if this do 5B in Japan.

Neutralizing negative hype....Sir, We do not have China, so need to depend more on other Asian countries....

[Issac Newton]

Sony-Marvel Spiderman Series:

 

Spiderman: Homecoming : 

WK0: ¥448,491,500 /¥775,406,300

WK2: ¥254,860,600 /¥1,841,193,300

WK3: ¥140,689,300 /¥2,260,122,800

WK4: ¥91,824,600 /¥2,507,675,100

WK5: ¥46,661,800 /¥2,633,375,500

WK6: ¥31,383,100 /¥2,708,039,900

Finals : ¥2.80B

 

Spiderman: Far From Home : 

WK0: ¥698,561,400 /¥1,009,949,700

WK2: ¥393,607,900 /¥1,867,980,830

WK3: ¥229,105,400 /¥2,356,664,800

WK4: ¥104,177,400 /¥2,685,332,200

WK5: ¥57,504,000 /¥2,847,441,500

Finals : ¥3.06B

Edited December 9, 2021 by Issac Newton

[pepsa]

41 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Yes, but there are exceptional cases since people here like Spiderman &Venom more than other MCU characters. I did not mean improvement in presales is equal to finals but that 10B is possible if trends continue. We do not know the exact presale amount but still that OW will be huge, almost displacing FFH in Week 1 if trends continue. What ever it might, Sony will displaced all the MCU releases in Week 1. And recently Venom is preforming strong and better than what it's overseas ratings was.

If trends continous it might come plose to end games PS, this opened to $13m, I don't know if NWH will get a friday release this could add another 5m (so 18m 3-day)  this would still leave it at $60m total at best (unless insane word of mouth) FFH had a 3 multi from it's 3-day weekend with a lot less hype.

 

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by pepsa

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

If trends continous it might come plose to end games PS, this opened to $13m, I don't know if NWH will get a friday release this could add another 5m (so 18m 3-day)  this would still leave it at $60m total at best (unless insane word of mouth) FFH had a 3.3 multi from it's 3-day weekend with a lot less hype.

 

 

7th Jan is Friday......

Edited December 9, 2021 by Issac Newton

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

7th Jan is Friday......

............thanks............Like i said with a 3-day weekend (I know i was to lazy to check) that still 18m 3-day and that would still only put it at 6.8b yen in total. I think their is no way to even say NWH has a chance at 10B unless it openens to 24m 3-day (4th day is a holiday i though) 32m-4day and even with that opening we need a 2nd weekend drop off 40% (if 3-day weekend is 24m with 16m SAT/SUN) or 30% at most (if the 3day is only 18m with 13m sat/sun) to give it a shot at 10b. Something that hasn't happened for SH movies in a long time (same for HC and FFH). Btw doing this..................might come off as being rude

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, pepsa said:

............thanks............Like i said with a 3-day weekend (I know i was to lazy to check) that still 18m 3-day and that would still only put it at 6.8b yen in total. I think their is no way to even say NWH has a chance at 10B unless it openens to 24m 3-day (4th day is a holiday i though) 32m-4day and even with that opening we need a 2nd weekend drop off 40% (if 3-day weekend is 24m with 16m SAT/SUN) or 30% at most (if the 3day is only 18m with 13m sat/sun) to give it a shot at 10b. Something that hasn't happened for SH movies in a long time (same for HC and FFH). Btw doing this..................might come off as being rude

Thanks for your forecast....It's not like being rude....as how much big it will,...it would not be opening No.1....might get out of luck...Just for the reference please use JPY because the region is Japan....&forecasting gets easier...other thing is that JPY &USD is parting too much...

[Legion Again]

Higher totals will rely on really great WOM, but even if legs are cbm normal will be a great result.

[pepsa]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Thanks for your forecast....It's not like being rude....as how much big it will,...it would not be opening No.1....might get out of luck...Just for the reference please use JPY because the region is Japan....&forecasting gets easier...other thing is that JPY &USD is parting too much...

The reason I am not using JPY is because I don't really have a feeling with the currency yet. What the average tickit prices is and what admission numbers are. What I mean to say is that if i were to use JPY atm it would just be converting my USD guesses in to JPY instead of dong the normal thing: looking at admission numbers to get JPY estimate and than converting to USD (this would be more accurate) but because I have been absent on the Japanese boxoffice for quite I while now I lost track on ticket price and normal admission numbers.

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

The reason I am not using JPY is because I don't really have a feeling with the currency yet. What the average tickit prices is and what admission numbers are. What I mean to say is that if i were to use JPY atm it would just be converting my USD guesses in to JPY instead of dong the normal thing: looking at admission numbers to get JPY estimate and than converting to USD (this would be more accurate) but because I have been absent on the Japanese boxoffice for quite I while now I lost track on ticket price and normal admission numbers.

I understand that. But, E.R. is getting so bad that I give up converting gross to USD for works releasing here. 

[pepsa]

18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

I understand that. But, E.R. is getting so bad that I give up converting gross to USD for works releasing here. 

Well for how well a movie does / altime list we should never use USD for countries that don't have USD as their main currency. Cause yeah E.R makes those comparison very unfair.

[john2000]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Spiderman: No Way Home broke the first three days advance booking records of it's previous two film "Homecoming" &"Far From Home" by 339% &376% repectively. Advance booking for SM:NWH has started from Dec 3.

Is japan a presale heavy market ?

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

Is japan a presale heavy market ?

Rare occurance. It is leggy not frontloaded... Site do not usually crash. Ofc, fan-driven OW is another thing but Spiderman pre-sale has some 46% GA. So, it is save to say leggy if T&A present &also WOM is good

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Rare occurance. It is leggy not frontloaded... Site do not usually crash. Ofc, fan-driven OW is another thing but Spiderman pre-sale has some 46% GA. So, it is save to say leggy if T&A present &also WOM is good

Are there some kind of holidays in jan ? To help spidey ?

[Issac Newton]

Just now, john2000 said:

Are there some kind of holidays in jan ? To help spidey ?

It will have 4-days extended weekend. But may/might not open No.1 due to JJK Movie 0. Since, it's pre-sale is already breaking record. Somemore detailing OW be correctly observe after seeing the film in advanced previews at 21 Dec. For now, it is promising min. ¥1500M to almost ¥2000M if that WOM goes breakdown buzz

[Sophia Jane]

So how well the presale doing?Do we have any data?