Big Hero 6 | November 7, 2014 | Now available on home video

[MovieMan89]

Anyways, I'm actually liking this movie more the more I think about it. I mean I liked it right away, but it's stuck with me since I saw it more than I anticipated and I expect I may love it when I see it a second time.

Edited November 12, 2014 by MovieMan89

[MovieMan89]

I agree, there is more competition, especially from Annie and Penguins.

 

I'm not sure about Into the Woods.  I love it and I've seen it several times, but other than the fact that it's fairy tales, it's not really a 'kids' centric movie.  Safe for kids, yeah, but if it's like the stage version it's really more for slightly older audiences.

I didn't think Into the Woods was supposed to be that kiddie either, but then it got a PG rating and is Disney after all, so I have to think they are going for that audience. Especially with Frozen making musicals popular with kids again.

[Sal]

Anyways, I'm actually liking this movie more the more I think about it. I mean I liked it right away, but it's stuck with me since I saw it more than I anticipated and I expect I may love it when I see it a second time.

 

It's kind of odd like that.  I liked it a lot when I first saw it too, but the longer I think about it, the more I like it even further in hindsight.  I really want to go see it again.

[Sal]

I didn't think Into the Woods was supposed to be that kiddie either, but then it got a PG rating and is Disney after all, so I have to think they are going for that audience. Especially with Frozen making musicals popular with kids again.

 

If they are going for that audience, I wonder if they've toned ITW down a bit.  The original musical is pretty dark. (Then again, so are most actual fairytales).

[GuardiaStar]

 

         

 

 

 

For this one you could try maybe looking at Toys R Us, or even a retail store I may look at Target for some goodies..

I bet you could also try hitting the Disney Store too (there's an exclusive one of him and Hiro I believe, pic down below)

 

 

I'm still trying to find a:

 

 

[Melvin Frohike]

Maybe some kids faked being sick to see Big Hero 6? I know I would

Many children in the DOM market have Veterans/Remembrance/Armistice Day off from school, and many of their parents are off from work, as well.

 

 

I'm really curious what the multiplier on this will be.

Me too. All I know is that a modest 3.6X multiplier will get the movie to $200+M DOM, so falling below that mark of a "successful" release (with some leeway, as Wreck-It Ralph even at $189M is generally considered successful) would be extremely unlikely.

 

Do we have any other animated films opening at this time of year that would be good for reference?

Here are some relevant OW multipliers (DOM) for WDAS movies (21st century only, as these things worked rather differently during the 1990s):

Early November:

Brother Bear: 4.40

Chicken Little: 3.38 (last major WDAS movie to fall below 3.6X)

Wreck-It Ralph: 3.86

Late November:

Treasure Planet: 3.16

Bolt: 4.35

The Princess and the Frog: 4.31

Tangled: 4.12

Frozen: 5.95

Note that OW gross and OW multiplier are not completely independent variables, as generally the lower the OW gross the easier it is for a movie to have a higher OW multiplier, which means for example that Tangled's 4.12X multiplier is actually more impressive than those of Brother Bear, Bolt, and The Princess and the Frog even though they're a bit higher. Note also that Frozen had both the highest OW gross and OW multiplier. While this means that it would be easier for Big Hero 6 to achieve a 5.95X multiplier (suggested in another thread), it's still such an outlier that it would be insane to actually predict, even if audiences seem to respond to the movie like they did to Frozen, anecdotally.

Now here are some Pixar OW multipliers (21st century only):

Early November:

Monsters, Inc.: 4.09

The Incredibles: 3.71

 

Wreck it Ralph would be the best one. Only two years old, same release date, and WDA. That had a 3.9x multi. This could be a lot better than even that great multi if this Tuesday number is any indication.

That's certainly doable based on what we've seen so far.

 

But again, competition is coming. Especially late competition when Annie, Night at the Museum, and Into the Woods all go after the family audience in December. This isn't Frozen, where it only had Walking With Dinosaurs to fend off in December.

Oh, I'm sure that the competition is counting their lucky stars that they didn't have anything major scheduled to go directly up against the likes of Frozen (at least all the way until February with The Lego Movie).

Edited November 13, 2014 by Melvin Frohike

[GuardiaStar]

Many children in the DOM market have Veterans/Remembrance/Armistice Day off from school, and many of their parents are off from work, as well.

Cool, I never got it off as a kid though

[kayumanggi]

I want this to cross 300 M.

[BK007]

This movie is actually really safe and generic.

 

I am kinda disappointed. 

[Melvin Frohike]

I want this to cross 300 M.

You're not alone in that here, but for some perspective here are the required OW multipliers for various potential total DOM grosses:

$200M: 3.56 (in the bag, barring some unforeseeable disaster)

$225M: 4.00 (definitely doable, even likely)

$250M: 4.45 (still doable with strong WOM)

$275M: 4.89 (difficult at best--would need to approach HTTYD's fantastic legs with a bigger OW)

$300M: 5.34 (extremely unlikely for a movie with this OW gross and pre-release exposure)

$325M: 5.78 (approaching Frozen's legs--would have to become a phenomenon)

$350M: 6.23 (would have to take the country by storm, as it were, much like Frozen did)

As for when to expect WOM and legs to start to kick in, I wouldn't get too excited just yet (like some people are in the Tuesday thread). For example, Frozen's legs didn't start to kick in noticeably until the Monday after its second weekend, at the earliest, and didn't really start to take off until after its third weekend. As I recall, for a couple of weeks there, at least, people were actually talking about how it would probably gradually lose its lead over Tangled and regress to a final DOM gross of $200M at the most, despite opening much bigger (i.e. a zero sum between OW gross and OW multiplier, which is practically a worst-case scenario). I don't know how anybody could have thought this given Frozen's WOM, but that seemed to be the prevailing line of thought in a number of forums nevertheless.

So don't jump the gun with Big Hero 6 in this regard, at least based on the daily numbers--not quite yet. It has done very well over the past couple of days, but Tuesday was a national holiday in the DOM market (in both the US and Canada), so that was a big reason. I expect Big Hero 6 to have above-average and maybe even great legs, but we likely won't start to see this reflected in its box office numbers for a while.

[Dingdong123]

That 4.45 multiplier is the most I can see this do, but with tough competition, I won't be surprised if this settles for 4.0 multiplier.

[TalismanRing]

I'm still trying to find a:

 

 

 

 

 

They're all over Ebay - some selling for under $10

[Mojoguy]

They're all over Ebay - some selling for under $10

Disney didn't make the same mistake making too little merchandise for BH6 like they did for Frozen.

[zackzack]

This will do WALL-E number.

Superhero/robot genre is too aggressive for Disney audience.

Look at Incredibles multiplier. 

But this won't even breach $260M - $270M limit.

[lab276]

Monster's Inc's multi (4.08) is probably the best it can hope for. 229m.

Edited November 13, 2014 by lab276

[Melvin Frohike]

Disney didn't make the same mistake making too little merchandise for BH6 like they did for Frozen.

Ironically, I think that Frozen had, at the time of its release, the fewest types of merchandise and the fewest units ordered out of all of WDAS' recent animated features. The reason was probably two-fold: marketing didn't think it would sell well, and Wreck-It Ralph had tanked so badly in merchandise sales that they were determined not to make the mistake of designing and ordering too much merchandise again (mission accomplished--result: still failure ).

 

 

Superhero/robot genre is too aggressive for Disney audience.

Look at Incredibles multiplier.

Well, The Incredibles had a much larger OW, and I can see why it would have less appeal for the GA than for animation/movie geeks. Personally, I don't see this with Big Hero 6.

[Jonwo]

Ironically, I think that Frozen had, at the time of its release, the fewest types of merchandise and the fewest units ordered out of all of WDAS' recent animated features. The reason was probably two-fold: marketing didn't think it would sell well, and Wreck-It Ralph had tanked so badly in merchandise sales that they were determined not to make the mistake of designing and ordering too much merchandise again (mission accomplished--result: still failure ).

 

There seems to be no middle ground when it comes to merchandise for animated films, have too little and the film is a hit, you end up selling out and annoying consumers and suppliers, make too much and the film does well or is a flop/bomb and suppliers are annoyed as they have merch they can't shift. I imagine other studios had these problems like DWA or Universal when a film does well. 

 

I don't get how $200m+ final domestic gross isn't considered to be great, aside from Frozen and Tangled, no other WDAS film has hit that number in the last decade, I imagine Disney will be thrilled if it hits over $200m, unlike with Pocahontas after the enormous success of The Lion King, I think Disney will have had lower expectations with BH6 because it's a different film from Frozen. 

Edited November 13, 2014 by Jonwo

[TServo2049]

As long as it passes $208m, it will still be the second highest-attended non-Pixar feature since Tarzan.

Edited November 13, 2014 by TServo2049

[AniNate]

Other than Frozen, it will be the highest-attended non-Pixar feature since Tarzan.

 

I believe you are forgetting a certain green ogre.

[TServo2049]

I was referring to Disney films, sorry I didn't make that clear.

In the last 15 years, here are the highest adjusted totals for non-Pixar Disney animated features:

Frozen

Tarzan ($273m adj.)

Dinosaur ($207m adj.)

Tangled ($204m adj.)

Lilo and Stitch ($204m adj.)

Edited November 13, 2014 by TServo2049