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Shawn Robbins

The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

By Shawn Robbins, in Numbers and Data

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

Posted
Posted

When you compare what TA has made thus far and is still making $$$$ hand over fist, everything else basically was destroyed: TASM, Battleship, Dark Shawdows, BB/TDK and in 2 weeks, TDKR will be added to this list..

Great. They are destroyed by TA. what a truth.
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TLK Blockbuster

TLK

Posted
Posted

TDKR is going to hurt TASM during its opening weekend but that's it. People here tend to go overboard with things. There is a 1:1 comparison with TDK and Hancock. Hancock dropped 56% on the TDK weekend but revived and had two back to back sub-40% drops. You will see a similar scenario with TASM and the only difference is that rest of the competition is even weaker compared to 4 years ago with only one major release per week for the next 4 weekends.

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cremino Sleeper Hit

cremino

Posted
Posted

Day 1: "OMG TASM 35m OD!1!!111!! EAT CROW HATERS LOLOLOL!!1!"Day 2: "TASM COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY LOL FAIL!!!1!!"Day 3: "LOL DOWN AGAIN SAY YOUR PRAYERS FANBOYS!!!!11!!"Day 4: "OMFG 20m+ FRIDAY HATERS LOSE AGAIN HAHAHAHA!!!!11!!!"And the cycle continues.

And especially these are boring numbers and nobody can claim victory. Haters predicted around 200m or little more and the loonies 300m or moreand at the end it willbe right in the middle!!!!LOLLL :lol: :lol: :lol:
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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

20-21 would be excellent. Looks like the tables might be turning

Excellent based on what? It had a bit better of a bump than Transformers did on Friday but it also fell much worse than it did for two days. This just puts it on track for a possible 240-250 finish. It's not bad of course, but not great.
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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

Dark Shadows and MIB3 did ok given they weren't waited by the audiences.People has different tastes.TASM won't disappear with TDKR, be serious.Many people won't be able to watch TDKR the first week because of full rooms, no seats available, so they could watch TASM in the meantime.

Why would ASM be the only choice for people? Do you think everyone is going to say that because TDKR is sold out, let's go see that boring ASM flick AGAIN? Doubt it. ASM will fall by about 55% the weekend of Batman. And that's a conservative estimate.
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Jawa Box Office Gold

Jawa

Posted
Posted

Why see TASM when you can see TDKR, which is probably going to be one of the best reviewed movies of the year, and at least top 3 DOM? It's a huge cinematic event, and Batman is the popular thing at the moment, not Spider-Man.

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baumer Cinematic Universe

baumer

Posted
Posted

TDKR is going to hurt TASM during its opening weekend but that's it. People here tend to go overboard with things. There is a 1:1 comparison with TDK and Hancock. Hancock dropped 56% on the TDK weekend but revived and had two back to back sub-40% drops. You will see a similar scenario with TASM and the only difference is that rest of the competition is even weaker compared to 4 years ago with only one major release per week for the next 4 weekends.

Hancock is not a fanboy movie. That's why it rebounded in the coming weeks. ASM is and now people will have other options. Look at it like this:Next weekend Ice Age Opens, ASM down 45-50%, so say 30 mill.TDKR comes in, down 55%, so 13 mill.By this time, the damage is done and the next two weeks have kind of weak releases, so it might recover with a 40-45% drop, but that brings it down to 7 and 4 mill. TDKR will kill it, thank God.
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Fullbuster Global Phenomenon

Fullbuster

Posted
Posted (edited)

TDKR is going to hurt TASM during its opening weekend but that's it. People here tend to go overboard with things. There is a 1:1 comparison with TDK and Hancock. Hancock dropped 56% on the TDK weekend but revived and had two back to back sub-40% drops. You will see a similar scenario with TASM and the only difference is that rest of the competition is even weaker compared to 4 years ago with only one major release per week for the next 4 weekends.

Exactly, happy to see reasonable people there.TASM will be there in August, be sure of it, only stupid people wouldn't think that. Edited by Fullbuster
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cremino Sleeper Hit

cremino

Posted
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Exactly, happy to see reasonable people there.TASM will be there in August, be sure of it, only stupid people wouldn't think that.

Agree but you predicted over 300m ;)Love your Zoro pic tough :D
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TLK Blockbuster

TLK

Posted
Posted

Hancock is not a fanboy movie. That's why it rebounded in the coming weeks. ASM is and now people will have other options. Look at it like this:Next weekend Ice Age Opens, ASM down 45-50%, so say 30 mill.TDKR comes in, down 55%, so 13 mill.By this time, the damage is done and the next two weeks have kind of weak releases, so it might recover with a 40-45% drop, but that brings it down to 7 and 4 mill. TDKR will kill it, thank God.

Let us say it makes 63 million this weekend.75+63= 138 millionMon-Thu 32 millionFri-Sun 33 millionMon-Thu 20 million (~40% Weekly drop)Total = 223 million when TDKR is released.Hancock made 50 million from the day TDK was released but here is the deal - Hancock faced much tougher competition overall than Spidey will face.July 13 : IA4 vs Hellboy 2 and Journey - IA4 will hurt Brave and Mad3 more than it will hurt TASM.July 20 : TDKR vs TDK and Mamma MiaJuly 27 : The Watch vs Step Brothers and X-FilesAugust 3 : Total Recall vs The Mummy: Tomb of The DragonI don't see how Spidey makes less than 50 million in the corresponding timeline when by all indications Spiderman has a better WOM than Hancock.
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Fullbuster Global Phenomenon

Fullbuster

Posted
Posted

A 65m weekend is certainly better than I'd have expected after that Thursday. But either way it's not hitting 300m, so at this point we're arguing over trivialities...

Before the release of TASM trackings expected a $52m weekend, so TASM is better than expected with $65m.$250m is a lock, let's see if $300m is possible.
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fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted

Before the release of TASM trackings expected a $52m weekend, so TASM is better than expected with $65m.$250m is a lock, let's see if $300m is possible.

I have the 300 mill club and not even i beive in that anymore...
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