The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[RTX]

Just when I thought this thing was finally dead, it's showing signs of life again. <_<Still, I expect it to be quite literally wiped off the face of the Earth when TDKR opens.

[Fake]

TF3 earned 14.8M on this Friday last year and made 123.6M after it. If TASM follows TF3, it will make another 173M which will put the final total near 270M.TF3 had DH2 opening only a week later which should more than offset TDKR opening two weeks later.

[Shawn Robbins]

So it should perform like TF1 from here on?

In theory, it very well might. Personally, I'm not sure. TF1 didn't have a major family-leaning animated film open in its second weekend. And while it did have Potter to face, I think its safe to say that TDKR (which has a perfect storm of fan appeal *and* mainstream appeal) is a much, much bigger threat to TASM's audience than Potter (which had settled into being a fan-driven franchise at that point) was to TF1's (which had a stronger mainstream draw).I think once the basic opening week audience is out of the way, TASM could start to deviate from TF1's pattern a little more. But that's just my theory. Edited July 7, 2012 by ShawnMR

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I agree with Movieman89 here.... it probably won't hit 2x multi off 6-day.I am expecting 1.9x for 260-270M.

I originally had it at 165/320 so of course I agree. I still think it can surpass SM3's 1.91 6 day multi despite the mid week July 4th opening.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Just when I thought this thing was finally dead, it's showing signs of life again. <_<Still, I expect it to be quite literally wiped off the face of the Earth when TDKR opens.

Yep, next weekend I expect less than 20m against IA4, and the weekend after 0m against TDKR.

[John Marston]

TF1 had Potter, Simpsons Movie and The Bourne Ultimatum all as competition so it's like it had nothing to face

[JackO]

TF1 had Potter, Simpsons Movie and The Bourne Ultimatum all as competition so it's like it had nothing to face

This is not Transformers. This is a reboot with middling reviews and word of mouth to be determined.

[theultimatebiu]

Yep, next weekend I expect less than 20m against IA4, and the weekend after 0m against TDKR.

[RTX]

The reboot was a smart move by Sony.

Except that we didn't need more SpiderMan movies, reboot or not. 3 was enough. Now, if the studios are perceived to be mere profit-maximizing corporations, then yes, I can see where you're coming from. But creatively this move has been utterly bankrupt, embarassing really.

[Fake]

This is not Transformers. This is a reboot with middling reviews and word of mouth to be determined.

Excuse me?

Reviews:

TF1 - 57%, 5.8 avg

TASM - 72%, 6.7 avg

WOM:

TF1 - 4.1 RT user rating, 7.1 IMDB rating

TASM - 4.2 RT user rating, 7.8 IMDB rating

Just because you didn't like it doesn't mean it is bad.

[druv10]

Yep, next weekend I expect less than 20m against IA4, and the weekend after 0m against TDKR.

You didn't hear, TASM's being pulled from theaters on July 20th 2012. Edited July 7, 2012 by druv10

[John Marston]

JackO's responses are always so predictable

Edited July 7, 2012 by John Marston

[Lordmandeep]

You may not remember TF1 when it opened...but people went nuts for that film.It was the blockbuster of the year for audiences that year in NA and its one of the best selling movies on DVD ever.

[Walt Disney]

Haters need to realize if Sony had continued with SM4 and SM5 the domestic decline would have likely continued.But ASM2 should reverse the domestic decline.The reboot was a smart move by Sony.

Reverse it from what though. SM4 would have declined from SM3, but TASM declined from SM3. So there was still a decline. At the moment, I'm not sure why there is a belief that TASM2 will do that much better than TASM or what SM5 would have done.

[druv10]

JackO's responses are always so predictable

So true, he was bitching about moving goalpost for TASM and look what's he doing now. Pretty embarrassing. At least Baumer showed class, rest of the haters.

[RTX]

This is the case where the reviews and user rating need to be thrown out of the window imo.SM has a massive amount of fanboys who would give it perfect grades before watching the film. User rating will go down over time, I'm sure of it.Some SM fanboys also work as movie critics, to the effect that reviews do not really represent the film's quality. FWIW, TASM reviews are only marginally better than SM3.

Edited July 7, 2012 by RTX

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

You didn't hear, TASM's being pulled from theaters on July 20th 2012.

Let me guess...it's being pulled for a double feature with MIB3 on Labor Day weekend.

[druv10]

Reverse it from what though. SM4 would have declined from SM3, but TASM declined from SM3. So there was still a decline. At the moment, I'm not sure why there is a belief that TASM2 will do that much better than TASM or what SM5 would have done.

I believe TASM 2 will increase with either GG or Doc Oc as the villain since Lizard was underwhelming.

[BK007]

Are there actually SM4 (RAIMI/MAGUIRE) defenders? We had On Stranger Tides and Shrek Forever After already to show you what would've happened. Both AWE and STT had marginally better WOM than SM3 and they are all within 5% of gross I think, so as grey ghost said, this was the way forward.

[Walt Disney]

None of them are as famous as the previous cast and director and we are looking at 135-140 6 Day and it already broke 1 record?

Not if you count monday night previews. Then, it didn't break any records.