Fullbuster Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I'm glad Thor 2 isn't doing TA/IM3 numbers, leaves more space for CF to break out. Why people always react like this "I want this movie to disappoint because my movie could destroy everything this way" It's a huge world, there is space for more than one. And by the way Thor 2 / CF don't have the same audience, two different kind of people. Still, I think now CF should beat Thor 2 because its DOM score will be much higher, offsetting mild numbers in Asia, and much bigger in Europe/Latin America as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Thor 2, Hobbit 2 (4 movies over 600M OS), plus a huge amount of mega hits like Fast 6, WWZ, Monsters University, Man of Steel, Now You See Me, Gravity, The Croods, The Hangover Part III, Pacific Rim, etc... WTF are you talking about...? I think it is likely we will have only 2 movies with more than $600M OS in 2013: IRON MAN 3 & THE HOBBIT 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyla Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 (edited) Still, I think now CF should beat Thor 2 because its DOM score will be much higher, mte Edited November 3, 2013 by Leyla Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 We have already had the debate about if 2013 is a weak box office year. Last year we had two huge surprises like Avengers and Skyfall. Asuming 1.050 billon for TH2, 900 million for CF and 750 for Thor 2 (maybe a bit optimistic all of them, but not impossible), top 10 WW would add 8.14 billion when last year top 100 added 9.24 billion. That is about 1.1 billion lower. I understand firedeep's point: 2013 seems a weak year. But we have to take account that last year we had final installments of two massive franchises like Batman and Twilight, and more sequels than this year. Let's compare top 10 (I try to compare similar movies, but I asume there are a pair of "hard" showdowns ) Avengers vs Iron Man 3 => 1 SH against the whole team: understandable 300 million difference Skyfall vs Fast & Furious 6 => Enormous surprise and astonishing record in UK against a franchise which is maybe reaching its peak TDKR vs Thor 2 => Final installment and sequel of the most beloved SH movie against a not key Marvel movie. Hobbit 1 vs Hobbit 2 => Probably a slight increase Ice Age 4 vs Despicable me 2 => A tie Twilight 5 vs Monsters University => Final installment of a massive teen franchise against a not Pixar masterpiece Amazing Spider-man vs Man of Steel => One reboot had more appealing for OS audiences than the other. That's all. Madagascar 3 vs The Croods => Threequel against original movie Hunger Games vs Catching Fire => A movie and its sequel: logical increase Men In Black 3 vs World War Z => Threequel against original movie, again. But even with that, close numbers. Movie by movie, I find logical the difference. Even with expansion of some new big markets, the appealing of one year is bigger than the other. And looking 2014 releases, we already know that it will be another "small" year. On the other hand, 2015 is extremely saturated of probable enormous hits. Just coincidences in schedules. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 I think it is likely we will have only 2 movies with more than $600M OS in 2013: IRON MAN 3 & THE HOBBIT 2 DM2 may still pass that mark, and Thor 2 has a VERY GOOD chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 mte mte? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 DM2 may still pass that mark, and Thor 2 has a VERY GOOD chance. DM2 and Thor 2 over 600 OS??? Are you serious? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 DM2 and Thor 2 over 600 OS??? Are you serious? I thought DM2 still had a big market left. Shame it doesn't have. Still, 550M OS is huge. And I didn't said Thor 2 will do it, I said it has a very good chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I thought DM2 still had a big market left. Shame it doesn't have. Still, 550M OS is huge. And I didn't said Thor 2 will do it, I said it has a very good chance. I thought Thor 2 would reach 525-550, but now I do not think it can even reach 500, so, IMO, 600 is out of question. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 (edited) I thought Thor 2 would reach 525-550, but now I do not think it can even reach 500, so, IMO, 600 is out of question. I think it's all but premature. Personally i see 500+ OS, but we have to wait the OW weekend OS gross, we have to wait the second weekend gross to measure the WOM impact, hence the repeating view impact, hence the legs. And finally, we have to wait to see how China reacts to this. Then we will know if it is on pace to reach $500 M or not. One thing for sure, a good rate and good legs will be the key factor to maximise its gross during the next three weeks. Edited November 3, 2013 by Ent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Yeah we have discussed this thing before quite a few times. All in all, international markets in 2013 is performing similarily to 2010, but a little behind 2011 and well behind 2012. I expect 2014 to be on par with 2011 overally. 2015 finally should be able to surpass 2012. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I will wait on the overseas numbers. I remember we severely underestimated IM3 potential overseas initially when it opened. The fact is the film will likely stick around for a while as its Winter Overseas and its doing good in Europe which is a more leggy market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 when IM3 opened it was the event movie and there was no other movie in the same ballpark. I think CF now should match Thor 2 and based on where Thor ends can beat it as well. But for now Thor is well placed for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 (edited) I will wait on the overseas numbers. I remember we severely underestimated IM3 potential overseas initially when it opened. The fact is the film will likely stick around for a while as its Winter Overseas and its doing good in Europe which is a more leggy market. Hunger Games is coming. when IM3 opened it was the event movie and there was no other movie in the same ballpark. I think CF now should match Thor 2 and based on where Thor ends can beat it as well. But for now Thor is well placed for sure. When IM3 opened, it instantly broke all kinds of records. The chance of CF doing more than Thor 2 both OS (and WW of course) is increasing. We should not forget THG did more OS than Thor 1. Edited November 3, 2013 by firedeep Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shantal Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 The chance of CF doing more than Thor 2 both OS (and WW of course) is increasing. We should not forget THG did more OS than Thor 1. In a very empty event-movie March-April period, compared to end of April, beginning of May for Thor I [when F&F5 was marvelous OS]. And the one is from a pretty popular book franchise, while the other is a less known super hero [in terms of OS knowledge]. Competition does affect box office performance. I still think CF will do gangbuster and do close to double the first one, but let's first see how Thor is performing for the whole weekend before doing any preliminary conclusions. From the OS trends on the treads, I see it's performing very strong on Saturday-Sunday, making it less front-loaded then some other SH entries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 (edited) Hunger Games is coming. When IM3 opened, it instantly broke all kinds of records. The chance of CF doing more than Thor 2 both OS (and WW of course) is increasing. We should not forget THG did more OS than Thor 1. CF is released in about 3 weeks+ after Thor2 international release. How many weeks do you think a Marvel movie need to make the bulk of its profit ? By that time Thor2 would have made 80% of its overseas money. Plus CF is the one that will have to face more competition between Frozen (which will be massive during the weekends with families), Hobbit and Gravity in China. So i wouldn't worry about Thor2's overseas potential when it is set in the better configuration, meaning 3weeks+ before CF, 4 weeks before Frozen and 6 weeks before The Hobbit Smaug and facing Garvity in some markets. Edited November 3, 2013 by Ent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 i want THOR NUMBERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 IMO it seems Thor 2 and CF should both in the 400~500 range. Not sure about Frozen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Scott Mendelson @ScottMendelson1m I don't have the THOR 2 overseas totals yet, but I can say it earned $5.2m on 136 @IMAX screens in 27 countries ($40k per). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 (edited) Scott Mendelson @ScottMendelson1m I don't have the THOR 2 overseas totals yet, but I can say it earned $5.2m on 136 @IMAX screens in 27 countries ($40k per). That per screen gross is meh. Thor 2 OW 5.2M on 136 IMAX screens 38.2K ave. IM3 OW 7.2M on 113 IMAX screens 64K ave. Gravity OW 3.2M on 89 IMAX screens 36K ave. Edited November 3, 2013 by firedeep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
