Wednesday (7/25/12) Numbers: TDKR @ $13.77m

[bballman24]

The reality is that it's not the other worldly numbers we would like to see, and all of us should just accept. Screw what ifs. Shit happened, and to me that's that. Disappointing since I'm a huge batman and nolan fan (now) but knowing that the world has finally accepted my favorite hero is the feeling I cherish the most.

[Walt Disney]

When the Grandaddy of them all underwhelms to this degree, it kind of kills interest in everything else.

The only thing that I will say about that is that if you look at predictions before TA was released, TDKR seems to be doing right around what most people predicted it would do. There were a few big predictions, but most predictions were right around what TDKR is making right now.Once TA performed so wonderfully, that's when all of the large TDKR predictions started to be made. I don't think it is really underwhelming, since it will still be 2nd or 3rd for the year.

[TLK]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Bat-update: TDKR officially grossed $13,770,092 on Wednesday. Total is now $211,808,988.

[Jordanstine]

That's the reality of this. TDKR was affected by the shooting. But when this ends up making between 410 and 450 you can't say that 100 mill was lost because of the tragedy.

I agree with this statement.Of course there is NO WAY to accurately estimate what the shooting has done, Only thing we can do is try to paint a picture of what the actual figures may look like by using the closes box office estimate (before the shooting) and the actual calculations that are now available to us (after the shooting).Before the shooting even happened, the latest midnight reports were predicting Friday to gross $80 million, with the weekend forecasts were just saying it will be over $170 million.Of course the actuals were $75.7M on Friday and $160.9M for the weekend.That is a marginal loss of 5.38% and 5.35% respectively, very close! Or we can say an average 5.365% loss over the estimates.So we can at least assume to use 5.365% as the "what it may look like multiplier" in predicting what TDKR "could have" made instead.Example:Let's just say "if" TDKR ends up at $450 million, that means that if the projected loss was close to 5.365%, TDKR "could have" made between $474.1 million to $474.2 million.Would this be reasonable?

[Eastwood47]

I couldn't disagree with this statement more. TDKR is the one film right now that is making theaters gobs of money. When you have a film making 25 mill one day, 18 mill the next, 13 the next and then 19 mill the next and so on, that is the mega revenue the theaters need to stay profitable. This sells $6.00 popcorn and $5.00 cokes and $4.00 chocolate. TDKR is not going anywhere.

Everyone knows a film's best weekend is it's first. By your own assessment, DarkKnight benefited by Ledger's death. This made the film a curiosity for everyone to see. And because of that, it opened huge. And because of Ledger's performance, the business stayed strong after that first weekend. With Dark Knight Rises, the same principle can be applied. People are curious to see this film BECAUSE it's the followup to the Darkknight. By default, the film benefits by the success of the last one. So it's an event that first weekend whether the film is any good or not. It can be a complete bust, but people will fill those seats to find out for themsevles. With it being an event, that pulls in people that don't share strong views of the charscter one way or the other. It's simply a big film to see. "It's Batman. Let's go watch it." Then the shooting occurs on Thursday night. Not Saturday night, not Sunday. The very night when the movie is suppose to take off and people start filling seats to celebrate said event. Well the shooting changes all of that. Suddenly Batman no longer projects images of a huge box office film with colorful characters and good times at the theater. Suddenly the media has everyone thinking the theater is your local beach and a Great White as just killed 12 people. Same effect. You have some that venture out regardless. But the event, as initially stated prior to the attack, is over. People suddenly don't feel good about seeing the movie that weekend. Suddenly there's an uneasiness about the association of this crime with the movie. And the people stay away. I would go as far as to say there was alot of money unaccounted for that was spent on empty seats. People who bought advance tickets who decided not to go. So to say somehow this film wasn't significantly hurt it's first weekend is to say Heath Ledger's death meant nothing to the Dark Knight's performance either. And we know that is not true.

[iceroll]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Bat-update: TDKR officially grossed $13,770,092 on Wednesday. Total is now $211,808,988.

Yikes, even lower than the other estimate. The only way to redeem this run now is if it increased tomorrow.

[Jay Beezy]

most disappointing moment/week in BO history, stick a fork in this thingI haven't even been able to think about the movie and fun without thinking of the shooting, those saying its not affecting attendance are cluelessI'm a pretty big Nolan/Batman fan and I haven't rushed to see it twice yet when I thought for sure I would have by now

I've seen it twice. I plan on seeing it a third time as well. Fitting for me since I saw the first once and the second twice in theaters.However, my interest in seeing other movies has declined significantly. Edited July 26, 2012 by Jay Beezy

[TLK]

Yikes, even lower than the other estimate. The only way to redeem this run now is if it increased tomorrow.

13 million+ Thursday will be good. Frankly, I was expecting a big drop today as all the movies had big jumps.

[filmscholar]

I was hoping for over 300 Million By Sunday but it's not looking good.

[filmscholar]

Yes the Shooting clearly had a strong effect but this could also be seeing a Threequel type of drop. There's only a select few Trilogy that increased with each film. Most saw increases on their 2nd film and drops on the 3rd. This seems to be following that pattern.

[Jay Beezy]

I agree with this statement.Of course there is NO WAY to accurately estimate what the shooting has done, Only thing we can do is try to paint a picture of what the actual figures may look like by using the closes box office estimate (before the shooting) and the actual calculations that are now available to us (after the shooting).Before the shooting even happened, the latest midnight reports were predicting Friday to gross $80 million, with the weekend forecasts were just saying it will be over $170 million.Of course the actuals were $75.7M on Friday and $160.9M for the weekend.That is a marginal loss of 5.38% and 5.35% respectively, very close! Or we can say an average 5.365% loss over the estimates.So we can at least assume to use 5.365% as the "what it may look like multiplier" in predicting what TDKR "could have" made instead.Example:Let's just say "if" TDKR ends up at $450 million, that means that if the projected loss was close to 5.365%, TDKR "could have" made between $474.1 million to $474.2 million.Would this be reasonable?

They were predicting 80M on Friday 'after' midnight and without any non-midnight numbers to go on. Earlier pre-Friday projections were 85M-90M. In fact, since that 80M prediction came after the shooting, that number could have been their prediction that was adjusted for the shooting, and then that number ended up being even lower. There's no way to know how much it could have done on Friday non-midnight. Edited July 26, 2012 by Jay Beezy

[MrPink]

Not to add fuel to the fire....http://www.deadline.com/2012/07/dark-knight-rises-weekend-box-office-moviegoers-hesitant/NRG Research is saying 20-25% of moviegoers are still hesitant to go to the theaters this weekend. Regardless of how much or how little the effect is, I'm thinking that the business it has lost up to this point is mostly going to remain that way. The drops this week have been normal, but I think we've been wanting to see some recovery that isn't going to happen, on top of the fact that this is going to be a more frontloaded installment of Batman that doesn't quite have the WOM that TDK did

[redfirebird2008]

Nikki is reporting that 20-25% of domestic moviegoers are still "very hesitant" of going to the theater this weekend due to the shooting.

[Master Scottb]

I was hoping for over 300 Million By Sunday but it's not looking good.

My guess is that it will end up around the $280m-$285m range by Sunday. It will probably hit $300m by Thursday next week.

[Hatebox]

Well this debate isn't going to go away anytime soon.

[#ED]

My guess is that it will end up around the $280m-$285m range by Sunday. It will probably hit $300m by Thursday next week.

Agreed.It will hit $300M by Thursday.At this rate,Thursday: 11MFriday: 18MSaturday: 24MSunday: 17MMonday: 10MTuesday: 7MWednesday: 5MTotal: 303M Edited July 26, 2012 by EaZze

[Jordanstine]

They were predicting 80M on Friday 'after' midnight and without any non-midnight numbers to go on. Earlier pre-Friday projections were 85M-90M. In fact, since that 80M prediction came after the shooting, that number could have been their prediction that was adjusted for the shooting, and then that number ended up being even lower. There's no way to know how much it could have done on Friday non-midnight.

I'm just using these numbers based on Business Week's numbers released before accounting the shooting.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-07-21/dark-knight-likely-had-sales-of-80-million-analysts-estimate

Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight Rises” probably generated $75 million to $80 million in U.S. ticket sales its first day, according to box-office analysts.

The sales, including tickets that were purchased before the gunfire in Aurora, Colorado, early on July 20, mean the movie may take in about $170 million for the weekend, the estimate of Jeff Bock, an analyst for Exhibitor Relations Co.

The numbers Business Week released were the original estimates not yet adjusted after the shooting.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Starting to think TDKR second weekend will barely be above THG second weekend.

THG is apples to TDKR's oranges.

1st Wed:

TDKR: 13.8m(-22.3%)

THG: 8.05m(-22.2%)

This is Summer vs Spring. Which means TDKR is burning off more demand during the week. TDKR started 8.4m ahead of THG for its first 3 days and has gained 21.6m in its last three days. I would not be shocked in the least if it pitches under THG this weekend due to demand being burned off during the week. THG is a horrible comparison, DH2 and of course, TDK are much better comparison films, IMO.

You guys are overreacting. And there are certain individuals ringing this film's death knell that are really surprising me as they are normally very logical posters.

[#ED]

My LONG and hopefully wrong prediction for the next 2 weeks......

7/26 Thursday: 11M

7/27 Friday: 18M

7/28 Saturday: 24M

7/29 Sunday: 17M

7/30 Monday: 10M

7/31 Tuesday: 7M

8/1 Wednesday: 4M

8/2 Thursday: 3M

8/3 Friday: 10M

8/4 Saturday:14M

8/5 Sunday: 9M

TOTAL: 338M

AGAIN I WANT TO BE WRONG AND WISH THIS MOVIE THE BEST.

Edited July 26, 2012 by EaZze

[Jay Beezy]

I'm just using these numbers based on Business Week's numbers released before accounting the shooting.

http://www.businessw...alysts-estimate

Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight Rises” probably generated $75 million to $80 million in U.S. ticket sales its first day, according to box-office analysts.

The sales, including tickets that were purchased before the gunfire in Aurora, Colorado, early on July 20, mean the movie may take in about $170 million for the weekend, the estimate of Jeff Bock, an analyst for Exhibitor Relations Co.

The numbers Business Week released were the original estimates not yet adjusted after the shooting.

That does not prove anything. It said that the gross included pre-sales, but that doesn't mean it makes up the entirety of its gross that day. That 75M-80M number was definitely adjusted, further proved by a phrase you conveniently omitted from the first paragraph of the article.

Warner Bros.’ “The Dark Knight Rises” probably generated $75 million to $80 million in U.S. ticket sales its first day, according to box-office analysts, in a debut marred by violence at a Colorado theater.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Jay Beezy