BK007 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I don't claim anything to be a perfect science, but you're presuming an apples-to-apples comparison that doesn't weed out trash data (which we aim to do). The over-arching point here is that the film was tracking extremely well -- and not *only* on Twitter.Tracking? MTC was nearly 20m under RS. There were always signs. And maybe the best point to make, as filmnerdjamie pointed out, the first wasn't actually very well received a la Sherlock Holmes. And just like in that case, the trailers here were once again mediocre/painting out the same picture. It's not that surprising. And I say this having had Sherlock 2 be one of my most anticipated films and I liked Sherlock 1. (Sherlock 2 kinda sucked) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Nevada Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Hmmm, nothing very interesting coming out next week, but the week after that has Lawless (starring the fabulous and talented Jessica Chastain) opening. That movie looks cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deathlife Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Is anyone surprised the Expendables is disappointing?The first one was a novelty and I don't know one single person that was super excited to see it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 (edited) Yeah Lawless should be on the radar as a potential sleeper hit. Great cast that should be appealing also. Edited August 18, 2012 by MovieMan89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 (edited) Who had it that high?Shawn got pretty close to there, because he and I had the same prediction almost.What it came down to was yes, I knew the Ledger factor was big and it had the Joker, but I thought the goodwill from TDK and finale factor would overcome that issue along with higher screen count, more IMAX premiums, etc. From there, I assumed a 190m OW, and then worse legs would bring the total to 550m (or in that range), assuming of course that the movie was within a comparable quality somewhere with the first two films. That would still be less admissions than TDK, but higher gross.Also, prediction inflated a bit due to Avengers Edited August 18, 2012 by MrPink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 So a Joker movie without Batman in it would gross $440m domestic and $1 billion worldwide? Good luck with that one.You were expecting $600m? It's a fact overseas loves sequels. Look at Madagascar 3 and Ice Age and Shrek and Pirates and Spider Man, all going strong despite having dubious predecessors and whatnot. The Batman franchise is actually good, so increasing OS is expected. Decreasing domestic was too, and that's what happened. Of course there was an Aurora effect but it was still falling short of TDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 (edited) Who had it that high?Quite a few, most had it over TDK's final tally though.So a Joker movie without Batman in it would gross $440m domestic and $1 billion worldwide? Good luck with that one.Hurray for reading comprehension. Edited August 18, 2012 by Shpongle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Who had it that high?@Jack0 @RTX @Dark Alfred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 You were expecting $600m?It's a fact overseas loves sequels. Look at Madagascar 3 and Ice Age and Shrek and Pirates and Spider Man, all going strong despite having dubious predecessors and whatnot.The Batman franchise is actually good, so increasing OS is expected. Decreasing domestic was too, and that's what happened. Of course there was an Aurora effect but it was still falling short of TDK.I predicted $450m domestic for it before Aurora ever happened, so no I was not expecting $600m for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goffe Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 OMG, I predicted 10.6 OD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Quite a few, most had it over TDK's final tally though.Hurray for reading comprehension.You said the Joker was more popular than Batman. My point is good luck proving it. Batman has proven that it can be popular without the Joker, whereas the Joker doesn't even exist on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kvikk Lunsj Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Prometheus - Most people had it over 200m, yet that would've been astronomically high for an R-rated horror film.Some people like me thought it was going to be PG-13. When the R rating came out I was expecting low 100m like 130m or something.next one is going to be the Hobbit people are predicted way to way for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Considering a full 90 members were part of that TDKR over $200m OW club let's not start pretending now that most people here didn't have huge $500m+ expectations for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab276 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Considering a full 90 members were part of that TDKR over $200m OW club let's not start pretending now that most people here didn't have huge $500m+ expectations for it.$500m was a reasonable prediction. It's gonna come fairly close to that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 You said the Joker was more popular than Batman. My point is good luck proving it. Batman has proven that it can be popular without the Joker, whereas the Joker doesn't even exist on its own.Its just a coincidence then that the Batman films with the Joker in it are by far the biggest then right? The marketing campaign for TDK was almost entirely about the Joker as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Yeah well most people didn't merely have it doing a 2.5x multi either. They had $200m+ OW prediction and at least 2.8x multi, so you do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Its just a coincidence then that the Batman films with the Joker in it are by far the biggest then right? The marketing campaign for TDK was almost entirely about the Joker as well.So then explain how a Batman movie ever even makes a fucking profit without the Joker. I'm a big believer in the Joker effect on Batman films. I've been talking about it for years. But there is still way more evidence that the Joker isn't a bigger deal than Batman. If he was, then they would never make a profitable Batman film without him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 (edited) So then explain how a Batman movie ever even makes a fucking profit without the Joker. I'm a big believer in the Joker effect on Batman films. I've been talking about it for years. But there is still way more evidence that the Joker isn't a bigger deal than Batman. If he was, then they would never make a profitable Batman film without him.Batman is big, the Joker's presence makes the franchise much bigger. Get it yet? Edited August 18, 2012 by Shpongle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackO Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 I would feel bad for Expendables bombing but it's movie's fanboys are unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Shpongle, explain this.TDK adjusts to $595m.TDKR is headed for $440m.That's a difference of $155m, which you can attribute some to the Joker and some to Ledger's death. But that still leaves a huge ass movie without the Joker. If the Joker was more popular, then theoretically TDKR should be on track for less than half of TDK's adjusted gross ($298m). Again, good luck proving your theory. The numbers don't support your argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
