China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[KP1025]

9 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I think he means 500 million yuan which is 72 million

 

but WW its gonna crash hard. 

 

This years solo

Unlike Solo, Dark Phoenix was never expected to do big numbers though. 

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Unlike Solo, Dark Phoenix was never expected to do big numbers though. 

I mean not really. Solo was estimated to make 800 mil -1 bil while this movie was estimated to make 500-600 mil. Both movies will have made less than half of the lowest estimates.

[Minnale101]

10 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Unlike Solo, Dark Phoenix was never expected to do big numbers though. 

Yeah I just meant like the biggest flop this year 

 

 

[KP1025]

9 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean not really. Solo was estimated to make 800 mil -1 bil while this movie was estimated to make 500-600 mil. Both movies will have made less than half of the lowest estimates.

I guess my personal expectations were lower. It seemed most were expecting a decent-sized drop from Apocalypse, with only China being its saving grace. Before the gloomy presales in China, it seemed even $500 million WW was the high-end. 

 

But assuming that range, is Dark Phoenix really going under $250 million WW? 

Edited June 5, 2019 by KP1025

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I mean not really. Solo was estimated to make 800 mil -1 bil while this movie was estimated to make 500-600 mil. Both movies will have made less than half of the lowest estimates.

Less than 250? That’s pretty unlikely even still.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think the way Solo's performance damaged the aura around the SW brand makes it a unique and unmatchable failure. Dark Phoenix isn't comparable because the X-men brand didn't have an aura in the first place.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think the way Solo's performance damaged the aura around the SW brand makes it a unique and unmatchable failure. Dark Phoenix isn't comparable because the X-men brand didn't have an aura in the first place.

the last jedi damaged the star wars way more that solo did, solo flopped bc the budget was very very high and bc noone wanted a solo movie really

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the last jedi damaged the star wars way more that solo did, solo flopped bc the budget was very very high and bc noone wanted a solo movie really

Not debating about which one damaged the franchise more, but even after TLJ Star Wars was considered a "sure thing" at the box office. Solo changed that.

[john2000]

Just now, Menor said:

Not debating about which one damaged the franchise more, but even after TLJ Star Wars was considered a "sure thing" at the box office. Solo changed that.

at least in my opinion, i always believed that the only sure thing with star wars were the episode movie , and only them, and that all of star war movies would make good money in us, i wasnt with those who though that star wars as a brand was a sure thing, in my opinion the only sure thing when it comes to box office is mcu, but yeah i didnt expect solo to make that much, i was thinking around 600 mil

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, KP1025 said:

I guess my personal expectations were lower. It seemed most were expecting a decent-sized drop from Apocalypse, with only China being its saving grace. Before the gloomy presales in China, it seemed even $500 million WW was the high-end. 

 

But assuming that range, is Dark Phoenix really going under $250 million WW? 

This is correct. I didnt read a single industry tracker predicting anything XMA level. Between rescheduling, unplanned reshoots, Disney-Fox transition, audience fatigue, no one was expecting much from this film. Tracking was what, 113m domestic total? And that was a conditional expecation based on an assumption regarding the film's quality (as BOP mentioned), so once the reviews came in, you can't really call such conditional predictions wrong per se. This film was one of the most agreed upon financial disappointments in the making. One of the last films marketed by Fox's old team, they didnt even push that hard (TV ad spending is about 60% of SLOP2)

 

Unless lorddemaxus is referring to some people on this forum or on reddit? In which case, take your pick of more recent films that grossly underperformed pre-release expectations, 2019 seems to be a banner year

[Justin4125]

12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

at least in my opinion, i always believed that the only sure thing with star wars were the episode movie , and only them, and that all of star war movies would make good money in us, i wasnt with those who though that star wars as a brand was a sure thing, in my opinion the only sure thing when it comes to box office is mcu, but yeah i didnt expect solo to make that much, i was thinking around 600 mil

I also agree with this. Industry trackers never saw the film above 400m dom given its release date, and there were always concerns about OS performance.

 

After TLJ struggled to significantly out-perform Rogue One and incurred the wrath of many fans (though, fair enough, internet trolls exaggerated the perception of GA's reception of the film), many readjusted expecations, especially since Solo also had many many production problems (complete change of director, heavy reshoots, reschedulings, etc). The behind the scenes drama, coupled with TLJ's signficant drop from TFA, led many to question the viability of Solo. 800M was not the low-end of estimates.

 

Also, SW, while one of the most bankable franchises in history (second maybe only to the MCU) was not proven as a multi-picture a year franchise with spin-off type films like the MCU. Couple that with its release date (following IW and Deadpool 2) led many industry commentators to expect a drop. Yes, it still underperformed, but more conservative estimates were at 600m, and I cant find anyone in May prior to its release expecting anything like 1bn

Edited June 5, 2019 by Justin4125

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

I also agree with this. Industry trackers never saw the film above 400m dom given its release date, and there were always concerns about OS performance.

 

After TLJ struggled to significantly out-perform Rogue One and incurred the wrath of many fans (though, fair enough, internet trolls exaggerated the perception of GA's reception of the film), many readjusted expecations, especially since Solo also had many many production problems (complete change of director, heavy reshoots, reschedulings, etc). The behind the scenes drama, coupled with TLJ's signficant drop from TFA, led many to question the viability of Solo. 800M was not the low-end of estimates.

 

Also, SW, while one of the most bankable franchises in history (second maybe only to the MCU) was not proven as a multi-picture a year franchise with spin-off type films like the MCU. Couple that with its release date (following IW and Deadpool 2) led many industry commentators to expect a drop. Yes, it still underperformed, but more conservative estimates were at 600m, and I cant find anyone in May prior to its release expecting anything like 1bn

agreed, i think that star wars movie and especially episode movie will always be a force to reckon with domestic, but when it comes to os, i dont think that these movies are that strong, now yes 700 os is big, but asia and same goes for latin america does not make much for star wars. and i dont thing that europe/japan can continue to carry star wars os for much longer

Edited June 5, 2019 by john2000

[ZeeSoh]

Midnight grosses of SH and other recent movies (in Yuan)

 

Captain Marvel - 15.45m

Venom - 14.44m

Mission Impossible 6 - 10.21m

Ant Man 2 - 9.5m

Godzilla 2 - 9.13m

Aquaman - 8.96m

Xmen Apocalypse - 7.65m (without ticketing fees)

Dark Phoenix - 7.58m

Alita - 6.51m

Shazam - 6.21m

Bumblebee - 5.82m

Logan - 5.30m

The Meg - 4.28m

Detective Pikachu - 2.96m

[keysersoze123]

its not bad considering how bad the PS looked even couple of days back.

[ZeeSoh]

Early Douban ratings for Dark Phoenix compared to final ratings of other movies

 

Endgame - 8.6

Logan - 8.3

Xmen Days of Future Past - 8.2

Xmen First Class - 8.2

Infinity War - 8.1

Xmen Apocalypse - 7.7

Xmen 2 - 7.7

Xmen 1 - 7.7

Aquaman - 7.7

Xmen 3 - 7.6

Alita - 7.6

Thor Ragnarok - 7.4

Xmen Wolverine Origins - 7.4

Ant Man 2 - 7.3

Venom - 7.2

Bumblebee - 7.1

Wonder Woman - 7.1

Captain Marvel - 7.0

Bumblebee - 7.0

Detective Pikachu - 6.7

Batman v Superman - 6.7

Justice League - 6.5

Shazam - 6.5

The Wolverine - 6.5

Dark Phoenix  - 6.5

Godzilla 2 - 6.4

 

YIKES!!! Again these are final ratings for the movies compared to initial ratings for Dark Phoenix and initial ratings almost always go down. For example, Shazam started at a 7.3 and fell to 6.5. Detective Pikachu started at 7.4 and fell to 6.7. So If the trend holds, then Dark Phoenix is definitely gonna go further down the ratings. 

 

It has the worst rating for an Xmen movie ever. 

 

As for Taopiaopiao I dont have many early ratings on this app, but the ones I have are

 

Endgame - 9.3

Detective Pikachu - 8.8

Shazam - 7.9

Dark Phoenix - 7.1

 

The fact that it is way below even Shazam is alarming. 

 

 

[ymblcza]

That score means worse leg than Shazam, ¥350m/$50m total tops.

Edited June 5, 2019 by ymblcza

[a2k]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

Midnight grosses of SH and other recent movies (in Yuan)

 

Captain Marvel - 15.45m

Venom - 14.44m

Mission Impossible 6 - 10.21m

Ant Man 2 - 9.5m

Godzilla 2 - 9.13m

Aquaman - 8.96m

Xmen Apocalypse - 7.65m (without ticketing fees)

Dark Phoenix - 7.58m

Alita - 6.51m

Shazam - 6.21m

Bumblebee - 5.82m

Logan - 5.30m

The Meg - 4.28m

Detective Pikachu - 2.96m

thanks! what does that tell about the 4-day ow...$40+?

[ZeeSoh]

51 minutes ago, a2k said:

thanks! what does that tell about the 4-day ow...$40+?

Yeah thats what I am thinking too based on midnights and PS, somewhere in the 40’s region for the 4 day OW. 

 

The horrible ratings are giving me a pause though. But this being a holiday weekend I still think it will manage to get over 40m. 

 

Lets see how the OD goes. 3x psm or lower means 40+ will be in danger. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yeah thats what I am thinking too based on midnights and PS, somewhere in the 40’s region for the 4 day OW. 

 

The horrible ratings are giving me a pause though. But this being a holiday weekend I still think it will manage to get over 40m. 

 

Lets see how the OD goes. 3x psm or lower means 40+ will be in danger. 

Is there any precedent for a CBM getting such low ratings? Way lower than even Shazam.

[ZeeSoh]

22 minutes ago, Menor said:

Is there any precedent for a CBM getting such low ratings? Way lower than even Shazam.

Off the top of my head I can only think of 2 SH movies with lower score

Green Lantern - 5.9

Fantastic Four (2015) - 4.4

 

Atleast amongst the recent ones (this decade). I am sure some of the older ones like Ghost Rider, Catwoman, Elektra, etc have ratings lower than DP as well. 

 

These are all Douban ratings, we’ll have to wait a few hours to get the Maoyan rating which is more indicative of reception and legs.