China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Andreas]

2 minutes ago, pepsa said:

So today IW is looking to get about an 11-12% increase from Wed, and bigger than Tuesday. 

Presales are up 45% at 9:30 pm. So I would guess atleast up by 55% in presales by 3:00 am

Very good news! With the increasingly probable extension, $360M+ seem more and more likely.

[Olive]

2 hours ago, Quigley said:

The first Incredibles made $2.4M in China in 2004. The total box office market is now about 45-50 times bigger. The Incredibles 2 should therefore earn at least $110M to match the market share of its predecessor. Could it beat Coco though?

.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/incredibles-2-lands-lucrative-late-june-china-release-date-1115653

No chance beating Coco which's run is just miracle.

My guess for TI2 is 80M-100m(don't be surprised if it makes less than BH6), NOTE that only 4 animated movies made more than $100M.

While the 2nd biggest Pixar outing made less than $40M.

[pepsa]

Well I am off so much, IW is already up 12% still 110 min left. Presales where 2.08m - 2.10m it's 3.18m atm so up 52% from yesterday. 

Edited May 31, 2018 by pepsa

[Fake]

Looks like a big Children's Day bump for IW tomorrow. Should do 16M+.

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Fake said:

Looks like a big Children's Day bump for IW tomorrow. Should do 16M+.

Does Fri normaly have a better PS multi then weekdays?

[pepsa]

8 minutes ago, Fake said:

Looks like a big Children's Day bump for IW tomorrow. Should do 16M+.

PS will be up +60%

Today is looking like 12m (+15%) if it follows presales it will be at 19.2m.

With a worse multi 16m does seem like worst case, higher multi could get it over 20m +, but because kids are out tomorrow and IW play very well with the younger demo. (thats why it increases and HlWIL won't) So i do expect a big increase on Fri but I woudn't be shocked with a small increase on sat (30%)

[Olive]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

Is there a reason why IW is doing better than the other movies today? (Relatively speaking)

Apparently a pre- Children's Day boost. CA3 also increased 17.5% on same day and +123% on CD.

Thursday Est
How Long Will I Love U 19.85M/608M, -1.3% 
Infinity War 12M/2182m, +15%
Ranger Solo 4.32M/81.7M, +1.3%
A Quite Place 2.95M/192M  -4.5%
Perfetti sconosciuti 2.64M/28.98M -2.2%
Rampage 0.62M/991.7M +22%

[pepsa]

2 minutes ago, Proxima Olive said:

Apparently a pre- Children's Day boost. CA3 also increased 17.5% on same day and +123% on CD.

Thursday Est
How Long Will I Love U 19.85M/608M, -1.3% 
Infinity War 12M/2182m, +15%
Ranger Solo 4.32M/81.7M, +1.3%
A Quite Place 2.95M/192M  -4.5%
Perfetti sconosciuti 2.64M/28.98M -2.2%
Rampage 0.62M/991.7M +22%

But then I had a small increase or flat on sat right?

IW still holds 13.5% screens, down 10.5%.

Edited May 31, 2018 by pepsa

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, pepsa said:

But then I had a small increase or flat on sat right?

IW still holds 13.5% screens, down 10.5%.

The holiday fell on Wednesday for CA3 so cant really compare directly. But CA3 fell nearly 76% on Friday as it lost lots of screens but then doubled on Saturday and fell about 13% on Sun so it had pretty normal weekend drops. 

 

Last time June 1 fell on a Friday was 2012 and most movies fell from Friday with those few that increased, increasing little. So yeah inflated Friday will lead to a drop or at best a small increase on Saturday

Edited May 31, 2018 by ZeeSoh

[Andreas]

Random question: Why do Hollywood blockbusters tend to have huge OWs and small legs in China, while Chinese blockbusters tend to have smaller OWs but far better legs?

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Random question: Why do Hollywood blockbusters tend to have huge OWs and small legs in China, while Chinese blockbusters tend to have smaller OWs but far better legs?

 

Many Hollywood blockbusters have fanbases in China where the unholy amount of theaters and screens allows practically everyone to see a movie on OW, hence legs are cut short, even with great WOM. This rush factor applies mainly to US movies, but also to a few Chinese movies, especially sequels.

 

Furthermore, the market is far more WOM-driven than even the DOM one, if a film has bad WOM it gets around FAST - we saw that even with a highly anticipated chinese blockbuster (Monster Hunt 2), which opened huge and then fell of like a rock because the people where not so happy with it. In short: The bigger the fanbase, the bigger the OW and the smaller the multiplier. Many chinese movies (but sometimes also american movies like Zootopia/Coco) dont really have these fanbases established and thus develop far stronger legs if the WOM is good.

Edited May 31, 2018 by Brainbug

[Pure Spirit]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Many Hollywood blockbusters have fanbases in China where the unholy amount of theaters and screens allows practically everyone to see a movie on OW, hence legs are cut short, even with great WOM. This rush factor applies mainly to US movies, but also to a few Chinese movies, especially sequels.

 

Furthermore, the market is far more WOM-driven than even the DOM one, if a film has bad WOM it gets around FAST - we saw that even with a highly anticipated chinese blockbuster (Monster Hunt 2), which opened huge and then fell of like a rock because the people where not so happy with it. In short: The bigger the fanbase, the bigger the OW and the smaller the multiplier. Many chinese movies (but sometimes also american movies like Zootopia/Coco) dont really have these fanbases established and thus develop far stronger legs if the WOM is good.

I wonder why WoM is so much more critical in China than DOM, and if that will continue to hold true as the middle class in China becomes richer. 

[Barnack]

Because wer tend to follow Hollywood sequels almost exclusively it make the difference look a bit worst than it is, non sequel like Ready Player One/Rampage/Martian do go around 3.0x/3.5x in China.

 

Dog Purpose went over 5.0, Hacksaw Ridge a bit over 4.0.

 

But yeah it does seem everything is amplified in term of how fast legs can drop (Dunkirk didn't came close to just doubling it's OW for example).

 

I imagine almost every movie goers in China will consider watching a Chinese movie with good word of mouth, but a large portion would not go for an english or dubbed movie like the american audience ? Limiting how high an imported non James Cameron movie can go.

[Barnack]

15 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

I wonder why WoM is so much more critical in China than DOM, and if that will continue to hold true as the middle class in China becomes richer. 

I think someone on this message board gave a cultural explanation about a long tradition of markets based on word of mouth for pretty much everything, that maybe could be found with a search.

[Olive]

WOM spreads faster than other markets, 1B people use Weichat, once the movie sucks, people will heard it on OD.

[Olive]

Fun Fact:

TA3 ranking #10 all-time

TA2 Ranking #20 All-time

CA3 ranking #30 all-time

...

DS  #70

CA2 #80

GV2 #90

[EmperorForever]

Random question - Does anyone have a good source for the box office performance of Chinese local films in markets outside of China (e.g., USA, Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Europe)?

[pepsa]

I see I forgot to post it here at 3:00 am the PS of IW were 3.995 or 90% higher then Thu. 

[a2k]

I love that while producers are trying to 'game' the Chinese market and trying to figure it out, the market keeps on throwing pleasant surprises. A year back I would have thought that I2 would be the movie as a CBM that helps Pixar break into the China big time. But it was Coco which broke out and even came uncomfortably close to the Dom gross ($189 vs $210). Coco's run was truly miraculous, much more so than the recent shocker RPO's $222.

[Cooper Legion]

5 hours ago, A2k Raptor said:

I love that while producers are trying to 'game' the Chinese market and trying to figure it out, the market keeps on throwing pleasant surprises. A year back I would have thought that I2 would be the movie as a CBM that helps Pixar break into the China big time. But it was Coco which broke out and even came uncomfortably close to the Dom gross ($189 vs $210). Coco's run was truly miraculous, much more so than the recent shocker RPO's $222.

Yeah, the degree to which Coco smashed the previous best Pixar film was mind-boggling. I’ll be curious to see whether the next few Pixar films fall back to previous levels totally or only partially.