China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[TommyA10]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

Star wars is the biggest franchise domestically BY FAR. It was not necessary that TFA did what is doing to know it.

 

But in terms of OS figures, Harry Potter has always made better figures than Star Wars. Just Episodes I and IV can compete OS with Potter films. And now TFA too. But the same year that SW3 was making $460m, HP4 did over $600m. A final film could not compete with an intermediate chapter. And the main example: HP1 adjusts to about 1.15-1.2 billion OS. And it did not have expanding markets. It is the biggest overseas modern film excepting Cameron's monsters.

$650 million OS in 2001 most certainly doesn't adjust to $1.2 billion today. It adjusts to $900 million tops and TFA easily beat that number. Also, if we're gonna play the "adjustments" game, why don't we adjust for much more competition in 2015 when compared to 2001. Why don't we adjust for much more available entertainment sources in 2015 like smartphones or smartEVERYTHING. Why don't we adjust for much sooner available BluRays and DVDs and Netflix and who knows what else??!

 

Also,

HP7 pt.2 was released in China and made $60 million there, hardly a game changer.

 

EDIT

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/number-of-frequent-young-moviegoers-plummets-in-2013-1201146426/

 

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by TommyA10

[peludo]

50 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

$650 million OS in 2001 most certainly doesn't adjust to $1.2 billion today. It adjusts to $900 million tops and TFA easily beat that number. Also, if we're gonna play the "adjustments" game, why don't we adjust for much more competition in 2015 when compared to 2001. Why don't we adjust for much more available entertainment sources in 2015 like smartphones or smartEVERYTHING. Why don't we adjust for much sooner available BluRays and DVDs and Netflix and who knows what else??!

 

Also,

HP7 pt.2 was released in China and made $60 million there, hardly a game changer.

Just four examples:

 

HP1 did $24m in Spain with 6.3 million admissions. With today average ticket price, that amount of admissions means $43m (+79%)

In UK, it did $91m. It sold an estimated 17.56 million admissions, which today means about $170m (+86%)

In Germany it sold 12.5 million admissions which means, if I am not wrong, about $120m (it did $67m) (+79%)

In France it sold 9.5 million admissions which means about $75m against the real $48m (+56%)

 

In Germany, France and Spain cases, HP1 sold more admissions than TFA. And in UK case it can be quite close.

 

Even in US the estimated adjusted figure is a 51% bigger than the real figure. And you are saying a mere +38% increase in 14 years even considering that HP1 had worse ER than now. And of course, in the adjusted figures I do not include the 3D effect that SW7 has.

 

DH2 did $60m in China 5 years ago. Today HP would be easily a 150-200 contender. Fantastic Beasts will be a good test to know it.

 

Said this, I agree with you that people have more entertainment sources than in 2001 and the amounts made this 2015 not just by TFA, but by JW, AoU, F7 or Minions have an incredible merit. But the same applies if we compare 2001 with 1977 and A New Hope times  What kind of entertainment or ways to see films existed in 1977 beyond going to the cinemas? no one.

 

It is impossible to compare different eras for those factors, so we just have to look at the BO figures/admissions, or just we can avoid this kind of comparisons. But it is more fun to compare

 

BTW, Welcome to the forums!!

 

Edit: My bad. Just seen that TFA will sell more than 10 million admissions in France, so TFA wins there, but not by much.

Edited January 11, 2016 by peludo

[peludo]

Sorry about the off topic...

 

So, where is headed TFA in China, 125? 130? maybe something more?

[tokila]

4 hours ago, MonstersandRoy said:

JJ Abrams can say what he likes, but it's by no means a standalone, it's just the start of a new chapter. Perhaps works more as a standalone in the west where even people who have not seen Star Wars, kind of know about the characters & elements. If you saw the film(TFA) and read the opening title scrawl, it is full of references to characters from the previous 3 films. I mean the first words

  Reveal hidden contents

Luke Skywalker has gone missing

 is instantly a connection to the previous 3.

 

Nostalgia is important to Star Wars, like it is with many beloved series in different countries. If that connection isn't there in a country with the 7th in a series, then it's sure the dampen the experience. TFA is a well made film, and a huge critical success (94% RT), unlike the prequels which were not, but they were still Star Wars. The nostalgia in those film's didn't blind audiences in the west.

There is a difference between a stand alone film and a film that stands on its own. I recall JJ saying he believe the film stands well on its own. I think his right. Obviously the film is better if you have seen the OT, and EP8 and EP9 will add to this film by flushing out the story. But, you can watch TFA without any previous knowledge and enjoy it. You just wont enjoy it as much.

[TommyA10]

18 minutes ago, peludo said:

Just four examples:

 

HP1 did $24m in Spain with 6.3 million admissions. With today average ticket price, that amount of admissions means $43m (+79%)

In UK, it did $91m. It sold an estimated 17.56 million admissions, which today means about $170m (+86%)

In Germany it sold 12.5 million admissions which means, if I am not wrong, about $120m (it did $67m) (+79%)

In France it sold 9.5 million admissions which means about $75m against the real $48m (+56%)

 

In Germany, France and Spain cases, HP1 sold more admissions than TFA. And in UK case it can be quite close.

 

Even in US the estimated adjusted figure is a 51% bigger than the real figure. And you are saying a mere +38% increase in 14 years even considering that HP1 had worse ER than now. And of course, in the adjusted figures I do not include the 3D effect that SW7 has.

 

DH2 did $60m in China 5 years ago. Today HP would be easily a 150-200 contender. Fantastic Beasts will be a good test to know it.

 

Said this, I agree with you that people have more entertainment sources than in 2001 and the amounts made this 2015 not just by TFA, but by JW, AoU, F7 or Minions have an incredible merit. But the same applies if we compare 2001 with 1977 and A New Hope times  What kind of entertainment or ways to see a films exist in 1977 beyond going to the cinemas? no one.

 

It is impossible to compare different eras for those factors, so we just have to look at the BO figures/admissions, or just we can avoid this kind of comparisons. But it is more fun to compare

 

Edit: My bad. Just seen that TFA will sell more than 10 million admissions in France, so TFA wins there, but not by much.

Absolutely. The same goes for ANH in 1977.

Also, we cannot just use 3D ticket prices and apply them to all movies which didn't have it. TFA will sell more 3D/IMAX tickets than any HP movie would have. That's certain. It will beat Avatar for IMAX tickets (or come very close to, not entirely sure). Moviegoing in general was noticeably bigger 10-15 years ago, as evidenced by the variety article. It declined by 15% amongst teens and young adults. In Japan, moviegoing has collapsed compared to 15 years ago.

One more thing that goes along cheaper ticket prices is more tickets sold. Average wages have hardly followed ticket prices increases for the past decade. (And lots of countries like Spain for ex. have some severe economical issues now)

All in all, for TFA to beat/match or come pretty close to matching HP1 admissions from 2001 and easily beat it in dollars means SW has outgrown HP internationally, to me. By the same margin as in US? No, but I think it is the biggest franchise internationally and by far the biggest one worldwide. LOTR and HP follow it. Marvel is 4th. (Obviously doesn't include merchandise).

 

But lets not get too carried away too much lol  All of the studios who own them make a decent living from them  

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, TommyA10 said:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/number-of-frequent-young-moviegoers-plummets-in-2013-1201146426/

First of all:

 

 

Second, thank you for the link, I searched for ages and didn't find it again sometime last year!

[POTUS 2020]

21 minutes ago, peludo said:

Sorry about the off topic...

 

So, where is headed TFA in China, 125? 130? maybe something more?

seems that way

however, presales now just -10% from yesterday at the same time and the multiple should get a little bigger today

could be in for a surprise hold

Tuesday is an important number worth waiting for. Was the doom premature? will know in a few hours. check back in, except for kswiston  of course who would prefer to wait for DHD actuals next Monday. That's like tracking box office in the dark ages, like 2011 or something.

[peludo]

41 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

Absolutely. The same goes for ANH in 1977.

Also, we cannot just use 3D ticket prices and apply them to all movies which didn't have it. TFA will sell more 3D/IMAX tickets than any HP movie would have. That's certain. It will beat Avatar for IMAX tickets (or come very close to, not entirely sure). Moviegoing in general was noticeably bigger 10-15 years ago, as evidenced by the variety article. It declined by 15% amongst teens and young adults. In Japan, moviegoing has collapsed compared to 15 years ago.

One more thing that goes along cheaper ticket prices is more tickets sold. Average wages have hardly followed ticket prices increases for the past decade. (And lots of countries like Spain for ex. have some severe economical issues now)

All in all, for TFA to beat/match or come pretty close to matching HP1 admissions from 2001 and easily beat it in dollars means SW has outgrown HP internationally, to me. By the same margin as in US? No, but I think it is the biggest franchise internationally and by far the biggest one worldwide. LOTR and HP follow it. Marvel is 4th. (Obviously doesn't include merchandise).

 

But lets not get too carried away too much lol  All of the studios who own them make a decent living from them  

I can agree with that. I was just comparing to HP1, not the whole Potter franchise, which we can say that has been at least extremely constant with its grosses along 10 years, something that is extremely hard. I agree that, right now, Star Wars has become the dominant brand.

 

Anyway, I will always have the desire to see what would had done today the 2 first Potter films and LOTR...

Edited January 11, 2016 by peludo

[efialtes76]

32 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

seems that way

however, presales now just -10% from yesterday at the same time and the multiple should get a little bigger today

could be in for a surprise hold

Tuesday is an important number worth waiting for. Was the doom premature? will know in a few hours. check back in, except for kswiston  of course who would prefer to wait for DHD actuals next Monday. That's like tracking box office in the dark ages, like 2011 or something.

Even with a good Tuesday hold TFA won't finish with more than $150m-$160m.

Edited January 11, 2016 by efialtes76

[TommyA10]

39 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

First of all:

 

 

Second, thank you for the link, I searched for ages and didn't find it again sometime last year!

Thanks for the welcome  and you're welcome  .

Edited January 11, 2016 by TommyA10

[POTUS 2020]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Even with a good Tuesday hold TFA won't finish with more than $150m-$160m.

correct, but that's better than 130m and could get over 1B yuan, a respectable milestone locally

[terrestrial]

25 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Even with a good Tuesday hold TFA won't finish with more than $150m-$160m.

but that would be way higher than a lot (or maybe even all) of not-known to the Chinese movie's stories / franchises beside JW

I did some charts,.. about that earlier = I really do not understand at all where all those high expectations come from

 

As written in that post, at BOM a few years are missing, but can you (or someone else) name me any other US/UK movie beside JW and Avatar, that made over let's say $100m or $110m++, with the condition it's basic story and / or cast,... being not already introduced, part of a franchise, movie series?

I do not count Titanic for certain reasons as one of those (I have no interest at all to get that one starting again).

 

Not wanting to be a geek (? annoying fan) = I really try to understand those expectations that seem to float around (you might not even part of that, I lost a bit the .. oversight/over-view, who 'demands' certain results and who thinks about them and so on)

Edited January 11, 2016 by terrestrial

[James]

When I compared HP to Star Wars I meant it as the overall franchise. HP is bigger than SW overall. Take a look at the Mojo chart. And TFA had 40 years of fans to do what it did. The fact that Potter managed around 1B with movies coming out every other year is just stunning. Just wait and see the same happening with Fantastic Beasts. 

[Kalel009Shel]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

forcseems that way

however, presales now just -10% from yesterday at the same time and the multiple should get a little bigger today

could be in for a surprise hold

Tuesday is an important number worth waiting for. Was the doom premature? will know in a few hours. check back in, except for kswiston  of course who would prefer to wait for DHD actuals next Monday. That's like tracking box office in the dark ages, like 2011 or something.

Force has no power in China.  They see it for what it is a bad rip off of anh that's spits on OT characters.  Lol damned Jpw will own the force in China, as will furious 7 and transformers baby. 140-160m max ?

[Plain Old Tele]

It's a shame this thread is turning into a retread of all the SW/Avatar threads in the domestic forum.

[75Live]

4 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

It's a shame this thread is turning into a retread of all the SW/Avatar threads in the domestic forum.

 

sadly due to a thimble full of people, it is inevitable 

[Kalel009Shel]

10 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

It's a shame this thread is turning into a retread of all the SW/Avatar threads in the domestic forum.

Nope just happy it failed in China tele and won't topple titanic.  

Jpw made 230m  in China right ?

And furious 7around 370. Damn

[James]

13 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

It's a shame this thread is turning into a retread of all the SW/Avatar threads in the domestic forum.

Tele, please, it is a SW/Potter thread. Give credit where it's due

[Kalel009Shel]

24 minutes ago, James said:

When I compared HP to Star Wars I meant it as the overall franchise. HP is bigger than SW overall. Take a look at the Mojo chart. And TFA had 40 years of fans to do what it did. The fact that Potter managed around 1B with movies coming out every other year is just stunning. Just wait and see the same happening with Fantastic Beasts. 

Amen.  I heard fantastic beasts will be huge too.  When does that debut?  2016?

[James]

Just now, Kalel009Shel said:

Amen.  I heard fantastic beasts will be huge too.  When does that debut?  2016?

Yup. This November