China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[KP1025]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Not sure why are surprised Venom. Look at what Aladdin did. Look at TS4 did. 

 

Seems like sub 150m is very possible. 

Jungle Book seems like the best comparison (same director, similar theme with talking CGI animals, etc ), and that grossed $150 million. It's not difficult to imagine three years later and with even better visuals and WOM (Jungle Book currently has 8.8 on Maoyan) that Lion King could improve on that.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Jungle Book seems like the best comparison (same director, similar theme with talking CGI animals, etc ), and that grossed $150 million. It's not difficult to imagine three years later and with even better visuals and WOM (Jungle Book currently has 8.8 on Maoyan) that Lion King could improve on that.

I agree, but it’s also not too hard to imagine that reception is worse and it does a bit lower. I’m feeling O/U TJB admissions for now, not sure how large a RMB increase that would be.

[cdsacken]

44 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Jungle Book seems like the best comparison (same director, similar theme with talking CGI animals, etc ), and that grossed $150 million. It's not difficult to imagine three years later and with even better visuals and WOM (Jungle Book currently has 8.8 on Maoyan) that Lion King could improve on that.

It's also easy to see it doing 140 or barely better at 160. 200 is possible as is 140

Edited July 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Jungle Book seems like the best comparison  

But 3 years old. 

[VENOM]

11 hours ago, cdsacken said:

I'm skeptical on TLK. China is very picky about animated films.

Yeah it’s called good taste not being picky. They just not into accepting obvious cash grabs left and right. I’m surprised Disney hasn’t announced a live action remake of Micky mouse yet what’s going on!

[keysersoze123]

Its at 23.45m at 2PM slightly down from 2PM number yesterday. But midpoint yesterday was really early(slightly before 3PM). I am assuming today it will be closer to 4PM?

 

realtime number is 24.82 and so RR is around 3m. That should amp up based on charlie's doc.

 

Around 60m friday?

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

But 3 years old. 

Market hasnt increased much in the last 3 years. 

SHs have lifted the past year but for the most part HLWD films have remained in a range. Like TS4 doing a typical $30m for a toon or GZL coming close to KK

Edited July 5, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Market has increased much in the last 3 years. 

SHs have lifted the past year but for the most part HLWD films have remained in a range. Like TS4 doing a typical $30m for a toon or GZL coming close to KK

I was talking about pre-sales trend.

[POTUS 2020]

10 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was talking about pre-sales trend.

The PS trend is about the same when comparing an 8 day run  to 8 days and 14 to 14.  

The PSm keeps changing though

With only 8 days we'll be looking for 40-50% increases thru wed after the roll out settles down tomorrow.  Probably 75% but could be 100% on Thurs.  Been like that for 4 years.

My chart from TJB PD run is posted in the PS thread, it was stronger than normal on the last 3 days

[POTUS 2020]

On 7/3/2019 at 10:45 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

Summer Fri/sat sees typically 20-25%/40-50% bumps instead of 40-50/80-100% if there isnt much show loss

If Thursday is 55m look for 

F  61m

S  92

S  79m

T  232m -65%  but Sunday will be down just 57%

The whole week may be down just 62% 

Low $200s total still looking good

Its looking like 60m. Staying on track for low 200s.  $210-220m if it doesnt fall more than 75% against TJB. Its got $200m even it fall 80%

Aq	9.3				XR 6.89	Vm	9.1			XR 6.94	SM7	9.1			XR 6.87
Day	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot
Fri	157			166	24.2	223			239	34	224			246	36
Sat	266	69.6%		432	62.8	303	35.9%		542	78	244	8.9%		490	71
Sun	220	-17.0%		652	94.9	224	-26.1%		766	110	185	-24.2%		675	98
Mon	89	-59.5%		741	107.9	90	-59.8%		856	123	84	-54.9%		759	110
Tues	74	-17.5%		815	118.6	80	-11.1%		936	135	66	-21.0%		825	120
Wed	62	-15.9%		877	127.6	69	-13.8%		1005	145	60	-8.6%		885	129
Thur	55	-11.5%		931	135.6	62	-10.1%		1067	154	55	-8.8%		940	137
Fri	87	57.8%	-44.7%	1018	148.0	85	37.1%	-61.9%	1152	166	60	9.1%	-73.2%	1000	144
Sat	164	90.1%	-38.1%	1182	171.8	162	90.6%	-46.5%	1314	189	90	50.0%	-63.1%	1090	159
Sun	124	-24.6%	-43.7%	1306	189.9	109	-32.7%	-51.3%	1423	205	77	-14.4%	-58.4%	1167	170
Mon	41.4	-66.6%	-53.6%	1348	195.9	35.6	-67.3%	-60.4%	1459	210	38.0	-50.6%	-54.5%	1205	175
Tue	36.6	-11.6%	-50.3%	1384	200.9	30.5	-14.3%	-61.9%	1489	215	34.0	-10.5%	-48.5%	1239	180
Wed	33.1	-9.6%	-46.5%	1417	205.7	26.6	-12.8%	-61.4%	1516	218	30.5	-10.3%	-49.4%	1269	185
Thu	30.3	-8.5%	-44.7%	1448	210.1	23.7	-10.9%	-61.8%	1539	222	27.7	-9.2%	-49.6%	1297	189
Fri	33.4	10.2%	-61.4%	1481	215.0	31.1	31.2%	-63.4%	1571	226
Sat	70.2	110.2%	-57.3%	1551	225.2	61.5	97.7%	-62.0%	1632	235
Sun	58	-17.4%	-53.2%	1609	233.6	43.2	-29.8%	-60.4%	1675	241
Xeve	36.1	-37.8%	-12.8%	1645	238.8	14.4	-66.7%	-59.6%	1690	243
Xday	35.7	-1.1%	-2.5%	1681	244.0	13.0	-9.7%	-57.4%	1703	245
Wed	19.5	-45.4%	-41.1%	1701	246.8	12.0	-7.7%	-54.9%	1715	247
Thu	17.5	-10.3%	-42.2%	1718	249.4	11.3	-5.8%	-52.3%	1726	249
Fri	16.7	-4.6%	-50.0%	1735	251.8	18.1	60.2%	-41.8%	1744	251
Sat	18.75	12.3%	-73.3%	1754	254.5	40.0	121.0%	-35.0%	1784	257
Sun	43.4	131.5%	-25.2%	1797	260.8	27.5	-31.3%	-36.3%	1812	261
NYE	53.2	22.6%	47.4%	1850	268.5	9.3	-66.2%	-35.4%	1821	262
NYD	50.9	-4.3%	42.6%	1901	275.9	8.2	-11.8%	-36.9%	1829	264
Wed	11.5	-77.4%	-41.0%	1913	277.6	7.8	-4.9%	-35.0%	1837	265
Thu	9.7	-15.7%	-44.6%	1922	279.0	7.3	-6.4%	-35.4%	1844	266
BB od	5.3	-45.4%	-68.3%	1928	279.8	2.1	-71.2%	-88.4%	1846	266
Sat	12.1	128.3%	-35.5%	1940	281.5	4.7	123.8%	-88.3%	1851	267
Sun	10.8	-10.7%	-75.1%	1950	283.1	3.7	-21.3%	-86.5%	1855	267
				2012	292.0				1870	269.5

[nguyenkhoi282]

@POTUS 2020 TLK, not TJB (to avoid later confusion)

Edited July 5, 2019 by nguyenkhoi282

[a2k]

FFH Maoyan could go below 9.0 in the end.

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

FFH Maoyan could go below 9.0 in the end.

it wont matter that much in the end

Edited July 5, 2019 by john2000

[fmpro]

FFH will have a tough time reaching 60 mill tonight IMO

Flat or tiny bump more likely

[john2000]

2 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Its looking like 60m. Staying on track for low 200s.  $210-220m if it doesnt fall more than 75% against TJB. Its got $200m even it fall 80%

Aq	9.3				XR 6.89	Vm	9.1			XR 6.94	SM7	9.1			XR 6.87
Day	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot	Yn	DoD	WoW	Tot	$Tot
Fri	157			166	24.2	223			239	34	224			246	36
Sat	266	69.6%		432	62.8	303	35.9%		542	78	244	8.9%		490	71
Sun	220	-17.0%		652	94.9	224	-26.1%		766	110	185	-24.2%		675	98
Mon	89	-59.5%		741	107.9	90	-59.8%		856	123	84	-54.9%		759	110
Tues	74	-17.5%		815	118.6	80	-11.1%		936	135	66	-21.0%		825	120
Wed	62	-15.9%		877	127.6	69	-13.8%		1005	145	60	-8.6%		885	129
Thur	55	-11.5%		931	135.6	62	-10.1%		1067	154	55	-8.8%		940	137
Fri	87	57.8%	-44.7%	1018	148.0	85	37.1%	-61.9%	1152	166	60	9.1%	-73.2%	1000	144
Sat	164	90.1%	-38.1%	1182	171.8	162	90.6%	-46.5%	1314	189	90	50.0%	-63.1%	1090	159
Sun	124	-24.6%	-43.7%	1306	189.9	109	-32.7%	-51.3%	1423	205	77	-14.4%	-58.4%	1167	170
Mon	41.4	-66.6%	-53.6%	1348	195.9	35.6	-67.3%	-60.4%	1459	210	38.0	-50.6%	-54.5%	1205	175
Tue	36.6	-11.6%	-50.3%	1384	200.9	30.5	-14.3%	-61.9%	1489	215	34.0	-10.5%	-48.5%	1239	180
Wed	33.1	-9.6%	-46.5%	1417	205.7	26.6	-12.8%	-61.4%	1516	218	30.5	-10.3%	-49.4%	1269	185
Thu	30.3	-8.5%	-44.7%	1448	210.1	23.7	-10.9%	-61.8%	1539	222	27.7	-9.2%	-49.6%	1297	189
Fri	33.4	10.2%	-61.4%	1481	215.0	31.1	31.2%	-63.4%	1571	226
Sat	70.2	110.2%	-57.3%	1551	225.2	61.5	97.7%	-62.0%	1632	235
Sun	58	-17.4%	-53.2%	1609	233.6	43.2	-29.8%	-60.4%	1675	241
Xeve	36.1	-37.8%	-12.8%	1645	238.8	14.4	-66.7%	-59.6%	1690	243
Xday	35.7	-1.1%	-2.5%	1681	244.0	13.0	-9.7%	-57.4%	1703	245
Wed	19.5	-45.4%	-41.1%	1701	246.8	12.0	-7.7%	-54.9%	1715	247
Thu	17.5	-10.3%	-42.2%	1718	249.4	11.3	-5.8%	-52.3%	1726	249
Fri	16.7	-4.6%	-50.0%	1735	251.8	18.1	60.2%	-41.8%	1744	251
Sat	18.75	12.3%	-73.3%	1754	254.5	40.0	121.0%	-35.0%	1784	257
Sun	43.4	131.5%	-25.2%	1797	260.8	27.5	-31.3%	-36.3%	1812	261
NYE	53.2	22.6%	47.4%	1850	268.5	9.3	-66.2%	-35.4%	1821	262
NYD	50.9	-4.3%	42.6%	1901	275.9	8.2	-11.8%	-36.9%	1829	264
Wed	11.5	-77.4%	-41.0%	1913	277.6	7.8	-4.9%	-35.0%	1837	265
Thu	9.7	-15.7%	-44.6%	1922	279.0	7.3	-6.4%	-35.4%	1844	266
BB od	5.3	-45.4%	-68.3%	1928	279.8	2.1	-71.2%	-88.4%	1846	266
Sat	12.1	128.3%	-35.5%	1940	281.5	4.7	123.8%	-88.3%	1851	267
Sun	10.8	-10.7%	-75.1%	1950	283.1	3.7	-21.3%	-86.5%	1855	267
				2012	292.0				1870	269.5

update potus for today  55-60 ?

[john2000]

1 minute ago, fmpro said:

FFH will have a tough time reaching 60 mill tonight IMO

Flat or tiny bump more likely

170 by the end of the weekend possible ?

[john2000]

 

[fmpro]

15 minutes ago, john2000 said:

170 by the end of the weekend possible ?

Not impossible. Will be around that number. 200 mill+ still locked

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

 

 

$60m+ opening + Zootopia legs = $600-$625m total!!

 

 

(I know this won’t happen)

[john2000]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

$60m+ opening + Zootopia legs = $600-$625m total!!

 

 

(I know this won’t happen)

probably not, but i would pay for this to happen if only for the reactions

Edited July 5, 2019 by john2000