China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[TigerPaw]

44 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

Reception seems poor.

Really? I am seeing good word of mouth on weibo, douban and maoyan though

[FantasticBeasts]

No actuals?

[jiangsen]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

No actuals?

Estimates come ~10:30 pm Beijing time, actually won't be out until the next day. 

[fmpro]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

No actuals?

 

Its only 8pm there. Actuals tomorrow..

 

But number will be way higher than POTUS estimated earlier. 10 mill $ is looking good

[peludo]

11 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

No actuals?

Last update in www.cbooo.cn has 20:15 data. Friday is already at 61.9m yuan (65.65m adding midnights)

[POTUS 2020]

In 2 years of tracking, only the TJB did 4x PS, but that was blowing up with great WoM. Now we have two. at 60m at 830pm. Upper 60s happening, could get to $10m OD, $33m OW

[TigerPaw]

12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

In 2 years of tracking, only the TJB did 4x PS, but that was blowing up with great WoM. Now we have two. at 60m at 830pm. Upper 60s happening, could get to $10m OD, $33m OW

Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen films, especially DY's films.. Pre-sales are always low, but the multiplier are always good. 
These are seasoned actors, not the fresh meats whose fans are online fans... DY and JW have a lot of 路人粉 (passer-by) fans who have no idea what movies are showing, but they just need to walk past the cinema, see Donnie Yen on the poster and buy the tickets (walk-ins). They don't usually book tickets online.

Edited January 6, 2017 by TigerPaw

[chrisman0606]

I think Later this weekend the scores may drop and  although it is surpassing ps, it might have a huge drop next weekend.

[TigerPaw]

10 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

I think Later this weekend the scores may drop and  although it is surpassing ps, it might have a huge drop next weekend.

Passengers will be a huge competitor. 

[Olive]

FRIDAY ESTIMATES

Rogue One - ￥67.3M /71M
Some Like It Hot - ￥20.5M/308M
Railroad Tigers - ￥9.1M/574M
The Great Wall - ￥4.85M/￥1089M 

Hacksaw Ridge - ￥2M/￥384M 
See You Tomorrow - ￥1.9M/462M
Nerve - ￥1.85M OD
RO only made one third of EP7's Saturday OD, but better than expected)

[TigerPaw]

Posted this on the International Thread for R1, but will post here too in case people wants to read. Some of you might disagree with me..

 

Wanted to take this chance to post about Rogue One's first day performance at the Chinese Box Office. Which was not incredible, but definitely did much better than expectations (our expectations were lowered due to Pre-sales).

I understand that not a lot of you here are familiar with the Chinese Box Office, as most will only check the threads there or read up on pre-sales comparison when a film you like is going to show and hopes the international total accelerates because China is a big market. I don't claim to be an expert, but I have been tracking the Chinese Box Office on-and-off for a few years now.

So last night at 10.00pm (GMT+8), the presales of Rogue One was 15.5 - 16m yuan (depends on which Chinese tracking site you use). A lot of us were looking at the numbers daily, since pre-sales started, but the pre-sales never picked up... Base on most posters at the Chinese forum, you guys will know that OD for a Hollywood movie is usually 2.75 - 3.25. Which means 44m - 52m Yuan OD is to be expected. So even the most optimistic of us were looking at 60m Yuan OD. And this big drop from TFA is to be expected, as TFA was so badly received in China... Lightsaber fight scenes were nothing compared what chinese viewers are used to seeing, how Wushu Champs like Jet Li and Donnie Yen handles weapon on screen.

(For full details on how TFA is impacting R1 negatively in China, read this: http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/)

So this Opening Numbers was supposed to mean a Big Disappointment, considered a big flop in China. But right now, estimates have come in, thanks to @Olive, we are looking at a 67m Yuan OD (around 9.6m USD), better than all of us has expected, a >4x multipler from pre-sales. And like what @POTUS says, he has tracked box office for 2 years, and 4x+ multiplier from pre-sales are very rare, and only happens to Jungle Book.

But what alot of us failed to realize was this... something so obvious and glaring (like the weakness in the deathstar). Because this was right infront of us all this time, on the China Poster...
Disney played his cards well, R1 is not a typical hollywood movie that needs to follow a 2.75 - 3.25x multiplier... because Rogue One has Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen. 2 of the biggest stars in China Market. 
 

For those who do not know, there are a few categorizes of Stars in China. We have Fresh Meat-小鲜肉 (Young, Up and Comers who may have been a singer previously) whose movie scores at review websites are inflated and pre-sales are outstanding because their fans are young generation who are great at social media. Another category are the established seasoned actors(实力派）like Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen。 

The key is this, for the latter category, which includes name like Donnie Yen, Jackie Chan and Jet Li... pre-sales for their movies are often(not always) disappointing. And it feels like a heartache tracking their movie pre-sales in China. But what they have are passer-by fans （路人粉）. They are a big art of Chinese culture, their movies are always showing on TV, but their friends may be of older generations and not that technological savvy. These passer-by fans may not even know DY or JL has a movie coming out, but they just need to take a stroll after work... see Donnie Yen's face on a poster, and buy the tickets without even watching the trailers(Walk-Ins).  I remember tracking Donnie Yen's Kung Fu Jungle in 2014, the pre-sales were pathetic, but the opening day outperformed.

That is why Disney has the trump card, with Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen onboard, pre-sales number may not look good, but people not from top-tier cities(eg: Beijing/Shanghai) still know these guys. These people may be from more rural part of the country, but they just need to see DY/JW's face on the poster and will buy the tickets.

There is no doubt Rogue One will drop drasically from TFA. But having Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen is really helping to boost the box office a lot, because without them, R1 would have suffered much much more. 

So for those un-initiated. Don't ask "Why R1 cannot outgross TFA despite having chinese stars.", because TFA indirectly killed R1 as it was badly received in China and in fact the chinese stars are already helping based on this pre-sales multiplier.

Of course, there will be people who disagree, and have other reasonings for why the multiplier is better than we thought. But from what I am reading on Weibo, Tieba...chinese social media sites and speaking to my friends who live in China, this really seems to be the case.


The OD is okay, what happens after these is really on WOM (which relates back to subs/dubs/title translation issues which is another topic altogether).

Edited January 6, 2017 by TigerPaw

[ttr]

Is it possible that with DY and JW, and assuming Chinese like R1, this will end up closer (or even above) TFA? What I mean, is it possible that R1 boosts SW in the eyes of Chinese?

[hw64]

9 minutes ago, ttr said:

Is it possible that with DY and JW, and assuming Chinese like R1, this will end up closer (or even above) TFA? What I mean, is it possible that R1 boosts SW in the eyes of Chinese?

 

 

Not on the cards. Not with Passengers releasing next week, the 3-week release window before Spring Festival, and the reception it's getting on Maoyan/Gewara etc. (similar to TFA).

[TigerPaw]

14 minutes ago, ttr said:

Is it possible that with DY and JW, and assuming Chinese like R1, this will end up closer (or even above) TFA? What I mean, is it possible that R1 boosts SW in the eyes of Chinese?

 

 

 

No way, it will not go near TFA. 60m - 70m USD is the optimstic total for R1. There are many reasons why TFA out-performed last year. Despite the Franchise not being established in China.
Including and not limited to...
1) TFA had 3 weekends of almost..0 strong competition(and Chinese New Year was later in 2016, Chinese new year kills all movies other than Chinese New Year Releases - 10 films coming out in 1 day to fight for showtimes, lol). | Passengers will most likely beat R1 next week.
2) A huge opening weekend because Disney spent a crazy lots of money having 500 stormtroopers on the Great Wall, and have the 4 chinese words representing Force Awakens | R1's marketing and hype is pathetic compared to TFA

3) Better red carpet date | (R1's red carpet was almost 3 weeks before its release, hype has died down abit).

4) Penned-up demand and hype, causing even casual movie-goers to watch. | curiousity factor gone, chinese audience thinks Star Wars is a snooze fest.

But like the article mentioned above http://chinafilminsider.com/screen-china-force-not-strong-rogue-one/, TFA's bad WOM killed R1. It is literally dead-on-arrival.
DY & JW can help Disney save some face, but it will not do well.. at all, the blame really goes to TFA.

By the way, if R1 opened last year, instead of TFA(assuming TFA doesn't exist), R1 will easily cross 1billion yuan which is around 155m USD (last year's exchange rate).
But now... it will not even earn half of that.


 

Edited January 6, 2017 by TigerPaw

[terrestrial]

11 minutes ago, ttr said:

Is it possible that with DY and JW, and assuming Chinese like R1, this will end up closer (or even above) TFA? What I mean, is it possible that R1 boosts SW in the eyes of Chinese?

 

Only to be sure, do you mean for SW R1 or for future releases, like SW 8?

[ttr]

Only to be sure, do you mean for SW R1 or for future releases, like SW 8?

I mean the SW franchise generally.

[terrestrial]

Arrgh, I forgot why I am here:

is that a real concern for BO? And I am interested into all films, not only SW R1 BO (and even more ímportant the Chinese population)

I am aware about smog being a huge problem at times.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-will-apocalyptic-smog-hurt-rogue-one-china-weekend-961401?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Quote

Over the past few weeks, heavy smog in northern China has caused hundreds of flights to be canceled as visibility dropped to as low as 150 feet in some locations. On Tuesday, at least two dozen cities issued "red alerts" for pollution, China's highest rating for hazardous air.

Over the New Year holiday weekend, China's box office dropped 23 percent, compared with the year-ago period, with revenue falling to 662 million Chinese yuan ($95.6 million) from 863 million yuan ($124.7 million) in 2016.

The decline came after a slowdown at China's box office, which began last spring. But some Chinese analysts believe the slip was considerably worsened by the hazardous air blanketing much of the country over the holiday.

Box office in heavily smog-affected regions in Northern China, such as Beijing and Tianjin, saw box office fall as much as 34 percent, year on year, according to local media reports. Clear-skied areas in the south experienced just a 13 percent slip, meanwhile. Families and couples, rather than groups of young friends, were the moviegoer categories most likely to shun cinemas and stay home out of concern for their health, the reports said.

On Friday evening, many neighborhoods in Beijing registered an air quality index of nearly 300. The U.S. government, via its embassy in Beijing, rates readings above 200 "very unhealthy," and 301 to 500 as "hazardous." Forecasters don't expect the air to clear until Sunday or Monday.

THR Box Office ‏@THRBoxOffice  42 minutes ago

Box Office: Will Apocalyptic Smog Hurt 'Rogue One' in China This Weekend?

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, ttr said:

I mean the SW franchise generally.

 

Well Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen aren't going to be in future Star Wars films. If Rogue One is to boost the franchise in the eyes of Chinese audiences, then it will need to do so on its story, special effects, etc. - things that can carry over to future films.

 

It doesn't look like it's going to do that though, again based on initial reception to the film on sites like Maoyan and Gewara. Episode VIII will most likely increase from Rogue One, but not by much, and it most likely still won't come close to TFA.

Edited January 6, 2017 by hw64

[ttr]

 
Well Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen aren't going to be in future Star Wars films. If Rogue One is to boost the franchise in the eyes of Chinese audiences, then it will need to do so on its story, special effects, etc. - things that can carry over to future films.
 
It doesn't look like it's going to do that though, again based on initial reception to the film on sites like Maoyan and Gewara. Episode VIII will most likely increase from Rogue One, but not by much, and it most likely still won't come close to TFA.

You never know [emoji6]
Thanks for the answers to you and TigerPaw. I still hope that Disney parks will help Chinese to get more familiar with SW.

[TigerPaw]

19 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Well Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen aren't going to be in future Star Wars films. If Rogue One is to boost the franchise in the eyes of Chinese audiences, then it will need to do so on its story, special effects, etc. - things that can carry over to future films.

 

It doesn't look like it's going to do that though, again based on initial reception to the film on sites like Maoyan and Gewara. Episode VIII will most likely increase from Rogue One, but not by much, and it most likely still won't come close to TFA.

Only if suddenly.. Chinese Audiences embrace the recently deceased Carrie Fisher as their own. (Just like how they suddenly felt that Paul Walker was their own during FF7, even though Paul Walker films have never done well there previously)

@ttr - this relates to u as well.
 

Edited January 6, 2017 by TigerPaw