China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[efialtes76]

Maoyan is dead! 

1m in the last half hour... 

 

[JimiQ]

Just now, efialtes76 said:

Maoyan is dead! 

1m in the last half hour... 

 

Crumbling  lets hope for fri/sat pickup

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Avengers: Endgame

 

Day	Date	Gross in ¥ ('000)	Gross in $	% +/- YD / LW*		Shows / Avg		Gross-to-date	Day #
Tue	Apr. 23, 2019	¥190,000	$28,274,000			39,000	$725	$28,274,000	0
Wed	Apr. 24, 2019	¥550,000	$81,845,000			225,000	$364	$110,119,000	1
Thu	Apr. 25, 2019	¥305,000	$45,185,000	-44.79%		225,000	$201	$155,304,000	2

 

good drop ?

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, HeadShot said:

Does anyone know what the total gross will be in China?  What’s the best/worst case scenario? 

$500-$600m

23 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

 

Th PS will finish 140m 136m at 2am   

Fr  PS  200m+

Sa  PS 250m+

Su  PS 100m+

The PSm will not stay at 2.  Just at 2.5 its FRi 500m Sat 625m. and I think both will be well over 200 and 250

Next Wednesday PS on track for 100m+ with at least a 3 PSm.  Normally it would be at 5

 

EG's OD PSm was slightly under IW's 2.13 at 2.03

IW Sat PS was at 210, 493m total.  2.35PSm.  Just a 10% increase.  FF8 was 20% increase

I say go with 2.15 to be safe. 300m.  But its a thursday not a Sat. 2.3-2.5x possible

IW's Sunday PSm was 2.65,  

2.5PSm on Friday seems about right

 

It will crawl to 300m tonight.   136mPS   PSm was 2.2.  A 10% increase just like IW.  Should have stuck with last night's projection.  The hourly updates are askew with the stalls and throwing off projections.

Having said that, good news. Tomorrow's PSm could stay flat because its a friday or increase 10% again like IW did on Sunday

Fri PS will get to/over 190m at 3am.   PSm at 2.2-2.42x 

418-460m!  Just 300m today has not affected the weekend.  Still on course for mid $300s

	AEG	9.3	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	189		35	186		81
W	535		227	125	-32.8%	82
Th	300	-43.9%	221	92	-26.4%	82
F	420	40.0%	225	126	37.0%	81
S	610	45.2%	230	238	88.9%	84
S	270	-55.7%	221	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2324		1159	966		501
$$	346			156

Edited April 25, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[charlie Jatinder]

12 hours ago, MadmenEndgame said:

@Charlie Jatinder  Your numbers gave me a boner

 

 

I am doing some weird stuff, giving boner to people on other edge of world

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Crumbling  lets hope for fri/sat pickup

??? it did fine today its work day for god shake

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

good drop ?

Yeah. Pretty good. More than drop, its raw number matter, i.e. ¥300mn is pretty solid.

 

Pre-sales for Friday are great, suggesting ¥420mn tomorrow. Let's see if it actually happen.

 

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

$500-$600m

It will crawl to 300m tonight.   136mPS   PSm was 2.2.  A 10% increase just like IW.  Should have stuck with last night's projection.  The hourly updates are askew with the stalls and throwing off projections.

Having said that, good news. Tomorrow's PSm could stay flat because its a friday or increase 10% again like IW did on Sunday

Fri PS will get to/over 190m at 3am.   PSm at 2.2-2.42x 

418-460m!  Just 300m today has not affected the weekend.  Still on course for mid $300s

	AEG	9.3	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	189		35	186		81
W	535		227	125	-32.8%	82
Th	300	-43.9%	221	92	-26.4%	82
F	420	40.0%	225	126	37.0%	81
S	610	45.2%	230	238	88.9%	84
S	270	-55.7%	221	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2324		1159	966		501
$$	346			156

 

So at this point, even using much smaller increases and a heavier drop for Sunday; I'd say the floor is 2100 / $312m.

 

[Lordmandeep]

The opening day was stronger then expected so the drop is fine I think

[JimiQ]

6 minutes ago, john2000 said:

??? it did fine today its work day for god shake

Isn’t this what this forum is all about? Euphoria taking turns with sadness

[lor15]

$300m achieved i think from here everything is good

[POTUS 2020]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So at this point, even using much smaller increases and a heavier drop for Sunday; I'd say the floor is 2100 / $312m.

 

Sure, you can use that as a net to prevent an outcry, but I dont see how it misses 420 tomorrow and with Sat PS at 170m now, heading to 250m+ and a 2.4 PSm or better, 600m is a virtual lock.  I've never seen a PSm go back to OD or hold flat at just 10% over OD

[Andreas]

1 minute ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Sure, you can use that as a net to prevent an outcry, but I dont see how it misses 420 tomorrow and with Sat PS at 170m now, heading to 250m+ and a 2.4 PSm or better, 600m is a virtual lock.  I've never seen a PSm go back to OD or hold flat at just 10% over OD

Maybe the fact that Sunday is a work-day could prevent the movie from doing such business on Saturday? Idk I just thought that Fri could be bigger than expected and Sat maybe smaller.

[HeadShot]

51 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

$500-$600m

It will crawl to 300m tonight.   136mPS   PSm was 2.2.  A 10% increase just like IW.  Should have stuck with last night's projection.  The hourly updates are askew with the stalls and throwing off projections.

Having said that, good news. Tomorrow's PSm could stay flat because its a friday or increase 10% again like IW did on Sunday

Fri PS will get to/over 190m at 3am.   PSm at 2.2-2.42x 

418-460m!  Just 300m today has not affected the weekend.  Still on course for mid $300s

	AEG	9.3	Shows k	AoU	8.6 rating	Shows k
				30		8
Th	189		35	186		81
W	535		227	125	-32.8%	82
Th	300	-43.9%	221	92	-26.4%	82
F	420	40.0%	225	126	37.0%	81
S	610	45.2%	230	238	88.9%	84
S	270	-55.7%	221	169	-29.0%	83
Tot	2324		1159	966		501
$$	346			156

Holy lord!!!!

[POTUS 2020]

30 minutes ago, Andreas said:

Maybe the fact that Sunday is a work-day could prevent the movie from doing such business on Saturday? Idk I just thought that Fri could be bigger than expected and Sat maybe smaller.

Typically an SH drop 66% on Monday.  We've seen movies drop just 50% on a workday sunday(like a summer monday).  So some people are apparently off or take in a movie on sunday afternoon/evening as a weekly habit. IDK. 

That makes Saturday like a summer sunday(the day before a 50% drop monday) which is only a 10% drop from a summer Saturday.

So I think Saturday will be 10% weaker than normal(summer sunday), hence just the 45% bump on Saturday and not a 60-70% bump.  Normally it would be a 80-90% bump like AoU(see earlier post) but PTA saturation would have prevented that

Edited April 25, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[POTUS 2020]

I mentioned this in the PS thread. Here is an extended version.

What makes this an interesting run to track is the calendar set up and the wed open

 

Wednesday is like a Friday due to OD

Thursday is like a summer Thursday because of OD spillover

Friday is a second Friday

Saturday is like a summer Sunday, 10% weaker than normal due to....

Sunday becomes a summer monday because not everyone works -50-55% instead of 66%

Monday is Monday

Tuesday is a Friday because its a day before a holiday +30-40%

Wednesday is a Saturday on steroids with the holiday +100%

Thursday is a saturday(holiday) with a 15% demand burn

Friday is another saturday after another 10-15% demand burn

Saturday is Sunday as its the last day of the holiday -30%

Sunday is another summer monday(workday) -50% instead of 66%

Monday is Monday once again

Any questions?

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I mentioned this in the PS thread. Here is an extended version.

What makes this an interesting run to track is the calendar set up and the wed open

 

Wednesday is like a Friday due to OD

Thursday is like a summer Thursday because of OD spillover

Friday is a second Friday

Saturday is like a summer Sunday, 10% weaker than normal due to....

Sunday becomes a summer monday because not everyone works -50-55% instead of 66%

Monday is Monday

Tuesday is a Friday because its a day before a holiday +30-40%

Wednesday is a Saturday on steroids with the holiday +100%

Thursday is a saturday(holiday) with a 15% demand burn

Friday is another saturday after another 10-15% demand burn

Saturday is Sunday as its the last day of the holiday -30%

Sunday is another summer monday(workday) -50% instead of 66%

Monday is Monday once again

Any questions?

If sunday is summer monday does that mean that this saturday becomes a Summer summer monday?  

And if so, what the heck is that suposed to mean 😛 

Edited April 25, 2019 by pepsa

[Rebeccas]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

I mentioned this in the PS thread. Here is an extended version.

What makes this an interesting run to track is the calendar set up and the wed open

 

Wednesday is like a Friday due to OD

Thursday is like a summer Thursday because of OD spillover

Friday is a second Friday

Saturday is like a summer Sunday, 10% weaker than normal due to....

Sunday becomes a summer monday because not everyone works -50-55% instead of 66%

Monday is Monday

Tuesday is a Friday because its a day before a holiday +30-40%

Wednesday is a Saturday on steroids with the holiday +100%

Thursday is a saturday(holiday) with a 15% demand burn

Friday is another saturday after another 10-15% demand burn

Saturday is Sunday as its the last day of the holiday -30%

Sunday is another summer monday(workday) -50% instead of 66%

Monday is Monday once again

Any questions?

confusedmathlady.gif

[ucas]

Offical estimate today : 320M 

[Olive]

OD actuals 535-536M, how do you get 550M

already 226k showtimes reported , it won't add too much.