Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[MovieMan89]

except for a couple of fanboys no one was predicting that

Right? I never even predicted 500m, merely said the potential was there. And considering we still have no idea how big holiday legs will be there's no way to solidly predict if it finishes at $350m or $450m+ at this point.

[RichWS]

From Variety...

UPDATE: According to Friday estimates, Warner Bros.' "The Hobbit" is on track to become the highest December opening of all-time with an estimated $85 million weekend in the U.S., but won't reach the soaring nine-figure domestic totals that some had predicted.

[fishstick]

So if franchises tick like a clock... tell me what it means for "The Hobbit" that it's midnight/OD multiplier is probably much lower than ROTKs and most important: What does it mean, that "The Hobbit" (judging by early numbers) is barely beating ROTKs opening wednesday with 10 years of inflation, 3D and more frontloadedness?

It means that those are natural occurances because people watch movies on their phones and tablets now. You have to take market situation into consideration and you can`t view TH as LOTR 4. It`s starts the cyclus all over again so instead of going "why isn`t it beating ROTK?", you view it as the first movie in the new cyclus. Now, I said "unless it begins to stray from the pattern" and that`s something we`ll know when Saturday blows over. If Saturday posts big increase than it`s staying in LOTR pattern. if unexpected decrease occurs than this is a new franchise so to speak.Also, don`t forget that LOTR arrived on the market that was low in geek properties and quality tentpoles for GA and 2 years after TPM which was a massive disappointment. Therefore, it was much easier for fans to embrace it as the next geek and tenpole-friendly GA thing. OTOH, look at geek shit that oversaturates the market now. Not the same situation. TH is no more the savior of geekdom, alternative to SW or whatever LOTR was dubbed in 2001-2003. It`s just one of many franchises. Edited December 15, 2012 by fishnets

[MovieMan89]

Oh boy, haters about to have a field day now. No way I'm buying $85m until we see a real Friday number. If Friday is anywhere over $35m like all early estimates have reported it will hit 100 or at least get very close.

[John Marston]

I'll be happy with 85m opening since that means with holidays 300m should happen

[The Futurist]

except for a couple of fanboys no one was predicting that

Yes but many thought 400m would be a walk in the park because of LOTR prestige, inflation and 3D. Edited December 15, 2012 by The Futurist

[Noctis]

Oh boy, haters about to have a field day now. No way I'm buying $85m until we see a real Friday number. If Friday is anywhere over $35m like all early estimates have reported it will hit 100 or at least get very close.

$37m is the estimate. So I see $90m off that number. Lower than my $105m prediction.

[JackO]

Glad I stuck with my gut on Hobbit. I thought it would hit 40M today. It should get a little over 90M just because my math is always underestimates films.

[MovieMan89]

No but many thought 400m would be a walk in the park because or LOTR prestige, inflation and 3D.

With holidays who says $400m still won't be a walk in the park? Are we forgetting that it is easily possible for a movie to open sub $80m in December and still cross 400? We need to see how WOM will be before anyone starts writing off 400, even if that disappointing $85m OW (not buying it) does happen.

[rb02]

Anything over 35M OW puts this project on a path to profitability. No fear! (Especially because it may triple 35M OW).

[Noctis]

With holidays who says $400m still won't be a walk in the park? Are we forgetting that it is easily possible for a movie to open sub $80m in December and still cross 400? We need to see how WOM will be before anyone starts writing off 400, even if that disappointing $85m OW (not buying it) does happen.

You must be shitting yourself if you think this film will do a near 5x multiplier if it hits $80m. Ridiculous. May I offer you a cup of logic?

[fishstick]

Fishnets, I like and appreciate your recent posts, the moreso because you have been a detractor who still maintains objectivity. That said, I must nitpick with your post in one way. It's not the geeks that are supporting this film; in fact, for the most part, the AICN weirdies are railing on it. It's the general audience that is making this a hit.

Well, at the moment, "hit" is a debatable word. ;)As for my being a detractor with objectivity, I`m full of shit last two days to tell you the truth. Neo slapped me with a warning so I`m playing nicer and more objective than usual.

[The Futurist]

You must be shitting yourself if you think this film will do a near 5x multiplier if it hits $80m. Ridiculous. May I offer you a cup of logic?

I heard it s tasty.

[Poseidon]

It means that those are natural occurances because people watch movies on their phones and tablets now. You have to take market situation into consideration and you can`t view TH as LOTR 4. It`s starts the cyclus all over again so instead of going "why isn`t it beating ROTK?", you view it as the first movie in the new cyclus. Now, I said "unless it begins to stray from the pattern" and that`s something we`ll know when Saturday blows over. If Saturday posts big increase than it`s staying in LOTR pattern. if unexpected decrease occurs than this is a new franchise so to speak.Also, don`t forget that LOTR arrived on the market that was low in geek properties and 2 years after TPM which was a massive disappointment. Therefore, it was much easier for fans to embrace it as the next geek and tenpole-friendly GA thing. OTOH, look at geek shit that oversaturates the market now. Not the same situation. TH is no more the savior of geekdom, alternative to SW or whatever LOTR was dubbed in 2001-2003. It`s just one of many franchises.

Sorry, i don't get your logic then, stating that "franchises tick like a clock" cause that's not what your explanation tells.

Oh boy, haters about to have a field day now. No way I'm buying $85m until we see a real Friday number. If Friday is anywhere over $35m like all early estimates have reported it will hit 100 or at least get very close.

It never ever is hitting 100m with a 35m friday. You are aware, that those numbers include midnight? So 35m would be a 22m friday, and even in the very unlikely case of it rising by 50% on saturday, it's still way under 100m, so maybe it's time to open your eyes.But again, 85m is still the december record and it probably still hits 300m.

[MovieMan89]

God there's some irritating little mosquito in this thread that keeps buzzing at me. Wish I could flick the little prick away.

[TLK]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/peter-jacksons-hobbit-eyeing-82-402969

Box Office Report: 'The Hobbit' Eyeing $82 Million-Plus Domestic Opening

eter Jackson's 3D fantasy-adventure -- set 60 years before the events chronicled in The Lord of the Rings -- is pacing to debut in the $82 million to $90 million range, easily besting the $77.2 million opening of Will Smith's I Am Legend on the same weekend in 2007.

Box office observers, however, are cautioning that the elementary school shooting in Newton, Conn., that left 26 people dead, including 20 children, could dampen moviegoing among families. The killing rampage is a reminder of the mass theater shooting in Colorado last summer that left 12 dead and 58 others injured.

[Mango]

Oh boy, haters about to have a field day now. No way I'm buying $85m until we see a real Friday number. If Friday is anywhere over $35m like all early estimates have reported it will hit 100 or at least get very close.

If it does $35 million today then it will actually be very lucky to hit $85 million for the weekend. With that $100 million is out of the question, as it would take a mammoth Saturday jump (from non midnight Friday) for it to get even $90 million.

But prequels have never performed as good as originals/sequels. Plus this will likely be a very leggy movie. It will do $300 million easy.

[dashrendar44]

85M Opening Weekend? Well...I can kiss goodbye to my 110M prediction.

[Noctis]

God there's some irritating little mosquito in this thread that keeps buzzing at me. Wish I could flick the little prick away.

There's the ignore feature. But mosquito bites still longer.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Everything's going to plan so far. So much for Firedeeps 'omg biggest flop of the year there's no way to spin it now'.

Just can't imagine it coming anywhere close to $120m based on OS numbers. LOTR / Hobbit was supposed to be much bigger OS. Something's fishy.

Yeah, it seems it kinda is overperforming DOM ...