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iceroll

Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

By iceroll, in Numbers and Data

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Okay here it is:I just rethought the whole case. And now I feel Hobbit could eventually pick up through the holiday season. It is more like a family drawer than a fanbase-drawing movie. No need to rush out. That said, I think it can still come close to 350M DOM and hit around 700M OS after all said and done.I got little carried away last days by its slow starts in OS markets. It is not appropriate to write it off so soon. After all, I am not a Ring hater but have waited to see the film for all year. I am looking forward to see it as always been. (Though I have to wait till middle Feb.)

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Jake Gittes Global Phenomenon

Jake Gittes

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Seems good for at least $85m on OW and a $325m total. Underwhelming relative to expectations, yes, but still a definite success. Hopefully The Desolation of Smaug pulls off a $100m Dec OW, the WOM should be there for it, and if they nail and successfully sell Smaug in the trailers, they'll be in great shape for a better run than this. I also wonder if PJ is going to take notice of the one widespread criticism of AUJ and give TDOS a tighter edit, perhaps bringing it under 150 minutes. I can't imagine the movie being hurt in any way if he did that.Wouldn't be shocked if AUJ made its way to $350m if it really takes advantage of the holidays, although over 370 seems to be a stretch at this point. So yeah I'd say the very early range is 325-370, and if closer, then 335-360. Let's see how it develops. Personally I predicted 123/430 several weeks ago and started leaning towards 105-110/380-410 in the past several days, so yeah it won't meet those expectations. But, like I said, I don't find anything terribly disappointing about its run and its prospects so far.

Edited by Jake Gittes
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Gopher Summer Tentpole

Gopher

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Holdovers look pretty good. Especially Lincoln and SLP. This definitely isn't a case where we're seeing the entire box office suffer. 37.325 28.9 (+16% without midnights) (-22.6%) 20.23 (-30%) 83.455m weekend 4x multiplier would take it to 333m.

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Elessar Summer Tentpole

Elessar

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I didn't post my expectations here before and I agree that I went with hype and predicted $110m OW still you have to remember Hobbit is releasing a weekend earlier to holidays which might help it ahead.

Dunno why it should help it. The holiday boost comes a week later but in turn the dailies by that time will be smaller.
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friendofnarnia Indie Sensation

friendofnarnia

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I also wonder if PJ is going to take notice of the one widespread criticism of AUJ and give TDOS a tighter edit, perhaps bringing it under 150 minutes. I can't imagine the movie being hurt in any way if he did that.

I think it would be wise for him to do so, though TDOS does have more story to cover so it may be able to warrant a longer story time. But I say that if it isn't truly necessary he needs to cut it, and stick it in the extended edition.And speaking of extended editions...what in the world are they going to stick in the one for AUJ? Bilbo blowing his nose? Oh wait, they already covered that... Edited by friendofnarnia
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