Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[fishstick]

The "saved by the (fill in the blank here)". I dunno how many times they get into some no-win situation when Gandalf or the damn eagles appear.

Also, dwarves are apparently made of rubber.

That will become the problem in the third movie when 3 rubber people bite the dust even though they were capable of surviving everything. And even though Gandalf is at Bot5A, he somehow forgot to pull a last-minute rescue 3 times. IMO, PJ should have been bold and killed off 2 dwarves in AUJ, some Bifur, Bofur random dwarf with 2-3 lines. That makes danger palatable, removes cartoonish feel, kids can deal with death of characters they don`t give a shit about cause they handled Bambi`s mom already, and creates the feeling that nobody`s safe. Also, since purists already froth at their mouth over additions including made-up Corseted Katniss For Cheap, no reason to placate them by keeping all 13 dwarves since the number loses its meaning the moment Bilbo joins. And they don`t have anything to do but act like one unit behind Thorin anyway. So kill off 2. Leave 12 people. Thorin now needs Bilbo more than ever because he lost 2 fighters. And it`ll make sense when 3 bite the dust in the third movie ebcause first one proved they are killable and not rubbery.

[rockNrollaDIM]

TH is no TPM. Any comparisons between this and The Phantom Menace are unrealistic. Everyone kept mentioning Bombur so much, I thought he was gonna be another Jar Jar. He's barely a blip on the radar of the film. The most annoying part is actually...

The "saved by the (fill in the blank here)". I dunno how many times they get into some no-win situation when Gandalf or the damn eagles appear. Also, dwarves are apparently made of rubber.

Ugh, this.

It happened countless times. My favorite was when they were in the Goblin cave at the very end, and it looks like doom and gloom because they're "outnumbered", and Gandalf realizes... *daylight* and then they just walk outta there! If the exit was that close to begin with then why the fuss, why worry about fighting goblins if the door is right there!!

[mdubs]

But the press doesn't really hit until Sunday when the weekend estimates come out, and you don't want egg on your face then.

Okay, so I think I've got a theory on the questionable projections that are out there, likely coming from WB: they are using basing their Sunday numbers on previous LOTR trilogy, which averaged Sa-->Su drop of 11.4%. If you use 28m as tonight's expected number, an 11.4% drop on Sunday gives you 24.8m, for a total of 90.3.

[Dragon]

So the trailers I got tonight, why is every upcoming movie in a doomsday or post-apocalyptic setting.The HostOblivionAfter EarthPacific RimOne after the next after the next, nearly identical plots, all coming out next year.

eww no man of steel Thank god I didnt went to see this movie.. Thanks WB for releasing it earlier =] Edited December 16, 2012 by Dragon

[mdubs]

However, as I believe Fake suggested, big disparities between weekends in December. All three LOTR movies opened the weekend immediately preceding Christmas, when all movies enjoy mild Sa-->Su dropoffs. I guess this is because schools are out, and people have finished their shopping?But two weekends before Christmas (i.e., this weekend) are brutal on all movies, new or not, big earners or not. For the years I looked over, average Sa-->Su drop was ~40%, and the best, Apocalypto, was 23.7.So through no fault at all of its own, I predict The Hobbit will have a much higher than officially projected dropoff Sunday, people will be up in arms, and then it will proceed to have far stronger legs than many foresee, including next weekend, where it will do very well.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

eww no man of steel Thank god I didnt went to see this movie.. Thanks WB for releasing it earlier =]

[Michael Gary Scott]

The 9 min preview of Star Trek was worth the 12.50 to see the hobbit in IMAX.

[Dementeleus]

There are news reports during weekend:

Weekend Box Office: 'The Hobbit' Opens To Record-Breaking Friday

BoxOfficeMojo.com: ‘The Hobbit’ Breaks Another Record with $37.5 Million Friday

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Opens to Record $37.5 Million on Friday

Friday Box-Office: 'The Hobbit' Tallies $37.5 Million on Way to Record-Breaking Weekend

Box office: 'The Hobbit' strikes gold with $37.5 million opening on Friday

Shire fires up B.O. as 'Hobbit' hauls in $37.5 million on Friday

Box Office Report: 'The Hobbit' Tops Friday With $37.5 Million, a December Best

'The Hobbit' Steals $37.5 Million on Friday

Friday Box Office: THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY Takes in $37.5 Million on Opening Day

'The Hobbit' Chasing $95M Weekend After $37M Box Office Debut Friday

You find hundreds.

These reports all quota DHD/BOG/BOM/BO 90M+ projections, which surely sounds much better than an around 80m weekend.

Yes, but there will be even more coverage come Sunday, and if WB gets remotely ridiculous, other studios will call them on it (in fact, Nikki's article even mentions WB is saying lower numbers). All these B.O. people don't blindly report whatever WB says, they call around and get a variety of opinions on the numbers.

[Goffe]

General public liked Phantom Menace.

Hell contrary to what the Internet says, public likes the prequels.

I liked PM

[mdubs]

Yes, but there will be even more coverage come Sunday, and if WB gets remotely ridiculous, other studios will call them on it (in fact, Nikki's article even mentions WB is saying lower numbers). All these B.O. people don't blindly report whatever WB says, they call around and get a variety of opinions on the numbers.

Well at least the Hollywood Reporter isn't parroting what everyone else is saying. Their article from today went with $85 m, attributing the figure to WB insiders.

[Goffe]

IMDB reviews are raving the movie, calling a masterpiece

Edited December 16, 2012 by Goffe of Oz

[Incarnadine]

So the trailers I got tonight, why is every upcoming movie in a doomsday or post-apocalyptic setting.The HostOblivionAfter EarthPacific RimOne after the next after the next, nearly identical plots, all coming out next year.

At my showing I gotStar TrekOblivionJack the Giant KillerOz the Great and Powerful (a new version)Man of Steel

[MovieMan89]

So the trailers I got tonight, why is every upcoming movie in a doomsday or post-apocalyptic setting.The HostOblivionAfter EarthPacific RimOne after the next after the next, nearly identical plots, all coming out next year.

Which is why most of them will flop, and one of the 4 will probably do OK.

[MovieMan89]

IMDB reviews are raving the movie, calling a masterpiece

Lol, it's no "masterpiece" by any means and we all know how big of a fan of these movies I am. But it's not even going for "masterpiece" like the LOTR films, It's mostly going for a Raiders of the Lost Ark adventure movie feel, and I think it's a huge success in that respect (especially the incredibly fun second half)>

[rockNrollaDIM]

Which is why most of them will flop, and one of the 4 will probably do OK.

Pacific Rim had the best reaction, but the least star power... hmmm.

[MovieMan89]

I wonder if Will Smith and M. Night Shyamalan will cancel each other out as far as star power. What I mean is that even though Will Smith is a draw, Shyamalan's terrible rep at this point will negate that. I found it very telling they didn't advertise Shyamalan's name anywhere in the preview. He always has his name plastered all over the marketing of his movies.

[JackO]

27-30M is expected for me but slightly better since it had worse OD.

[baumer]

So best case is 37 30 24 ......91 mill.

[Deep Wang]

Updated numbers:Midnight(Friday)[saturday]2D - 304(744)[960]3D - 128(405)[464]Total - 432(1149)[1424]

[John Marston]

Updated numbers:Midnight(Friday)[saturday]2D - 304(744)[960]3D - 128(405)[464]Total - 432(1149)[1424]

so how is it