BadAtGender Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, AABATTERY said: Which is almost exactly the same as the Game of Shadows Tuesday increase. 4.65 multiplier confirmed? edit: @grey ghost beat me to the punch. Now he has to make a club for over 4.5 multiplier. Perhaps to do the math a different way: After opening weekend, Game of Shadows earned 29.88 times it's first Monday over the rest of its run. If Rogue One does the same, it'll earn about 537m starting from Monday. Add in the opening weekend, and you've got a total of 692m, which would throw slightly under the 4.5 multiplier. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, DamienRoc said: Perhaps to do the math a different way: After opening weekend, Game of Shadows earned 29.88 times it's first Monday over the rest of its run. If Rogue One does the same, it'll earn about 537m starting from Monday. Add in the opening weekend, and you've got a total of 692m, which would throw slightly under the 4.5 multiplier. Rogue FLOP! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullbuster Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Porthos said: Rogue FLOP! Baumer is crying right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 3 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: Perhaps to do the math a different way: After opening weekend, Game of Shadows earned 29.88 times it's first Monday over the rest of its run. If Rogue One does the same, it'll earn about 537m starting from Monday. Add in the opening weekend, and you've got a total of 692m, which would throw slightly under the 4.5 multiplier. This is why I got a C+ in my Math course. Spoiler Calculus is hard don't judge me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, DamienRoc said: Perhaps to do the math a different way: After opening weekend, Game of Shadows earned 29.88 times it's first Monday over the rest of its run. If Rogue One does the same, it'll earn about 537m starting from Monday. Add in the opening weekend, and you've got a total of 692m, which would throw slightly under the 4.5 multiplier. Omfg, DON'T EVEN. I will have a heart attack if it comes anywhere near 700. But yes, the Monday # is good (goddammit). Was really thinking 15-16. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Epicness from both @Doctor RTH gone Rouge and @TalismanRing One invented the Rubik's Cube, the other solved it. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 18M? Let's guess Tuesday 20M Wednesday 15M Thursday 16M - around 229M Friday 25M Saturday 15M Sunday 29M Monday 31M - around 329M Tuesday 22M Wednesday 19M Thursday 18M Friday 22M Saturday 17M Sunday 19M Monday 16M - around 465M (Baumer's rebellion anihilated by the end of Holidays) 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 -52.25% on Monday (Similar to Sherlock 2 in 2011 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=sherlockholmes2.htm) BUT coming off much better Sunday hold (-18.6% vs -29.7%) and much bigger numbers (37.7m vs 10.3m). Spoiler #NotAnEvent 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 10 minutes ago, Porthos said: Rogue FLOP! Got a better one, and the one I am personally going to roll with going forward: ROGUE DUD: A STAR WARS FLOP 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 5 minutes ago, stripe said: 18M? Let's guess Tuesday 20M Wednesday 15M Thursday 16M - around 229M Friday 25M Saturday 15M Sunday 29M Monday 31M - around 329M Tuesday 22M Wednesday 19M Thursday 18M Friday 22M Saturday 17M Sunday 19M Monday 16M - around 465M (Baumer's rebellion anihilated by the end of Holidays) Whoa you just weirded me out. I posted almost these same numbers on TheForce.net, mine were a bit different on a few days but VERY similar. Like I had 25M Friday, $15M Saturday, and $30M Sunday, with a lower Monday ($25M), but noted that in past cases the Monday was actually the highest day so I could be wrong there. My conclusion was $460.5M by the end of the holidays and you posted $465M. That's uncanny haha I wonder how close we will be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadAtGender Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Or, if we're having fun with math... Sherlock's OW to Monday ratio is 8.05. R1's is 8.62 So from that perspective, Sherlock held better on Monday than R1 did. Not a lot, but a bit. Game of Shadows had better word of mouth. By about 7%. So we should expect R1 to hold about 7% worse than Game of Shadows did from Monday on. It won't get a 29.88 multiplier, but rather a 27.92. That would be 502m more, which makes it a 657m total. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Damien just killed it for me. Almost a 30 multiplier off that would be event level, but 27.92 is pedestrian at best. Just confirms our suspicions that it's not an event. This is way early to be talking about this, but if things go well, and Monday performs percentage-wise like it has in the past sometimes, a $28M Monday the 26th of December would give Star Wars the top 3 Mondays of all time. Just throwing that out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, JonathanLB said: Damien just killed it for me. Almost a 30 multiplier off that would be event level, but 27.92 is pedestrian at best. Just confirms our suspicions that it's not an event. This is way early to be talking about this, but if things go well, and Monday performs percentage-wise like it has in the past sometimes, a $28M Monday the 26th of December would give Star Wars the top 3 Mondays of all time. Just throwing that out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Being a bit conservative, 18 19.45 +8% 14.6 -25% 15.3 +5% 223.0 1 week cume Sherlock 2 did 3.2x off the 1st week cume : 186.85/58.75 Rogue One needs only 2.2x for 500 dom. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mattrek Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 24 minutes ago, Porthos said: Got a better one, and the one I am personally going to roll with going forward: ROGUE DUD: A STAR WARS FLOP I prefer ROGUE ONE: NOT AN EVENT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 18 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: Damien just killed it for me. Almost a 30 multiplier off that would be event level, but 27.92 is pedestrian at best. Just confirms our suspicions that it's not an event. This is way early to be talking about this, but if things go well, and Monday performs percentage-wise like it has in the past sometimes, a $28M Monday the 26th of December would give Star Wars the top 3 Mondays of all time. Just throwing that out there. Following the Sherlock example, we should get around a Monday of about 40M. Maybe it's not the most realistic comparison... Unless I messed the math up again in which case it's late and I'm tired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 If nothing else, take a quick look at the calendar. Just go to "December 2017." Notice anything? December 18 is a Monday, right after Episode VIII comes out. Maybe with not enough school kids being off, it'll still be too much to expect Episode VIII to clear $28M on its first Monday, but TFA did $40M and Episode VIII has one more year of inflation plus it can be down 30% from TFA's first Monday and still hit $28M to take #3 if Rogue One doesn't. But... notice something else? MONDAY, December 25, 2017. Christmas Day AND the second Monday for Episode VIII. That's almost a 100% for sure Top 3 Monday of all time right there. Then you have MONDAY, January 1, new year's day. Probably by the 3rd Monday interest will have waned enough that it won't be THAT big, but you could conceivably have three Mondays $20M+ and it's possible two of those Mondays $30M+. That would give Star Wars the only 4 Mondays in history ever to hit $30M, unless a movie this year pulls it off before then, of course. Also I was just going to throw this out there, food for thought, but everyone makes a big deal of WHEN X-Mas Eve and NYE fall because those days suck, but this year the holidays ended on a Sunday. The Monday after New Years weekend was back to work, back to school time for basically everyone. TFA opened a few days later in the year of course. This time, Rogue One takes a bit of damage by having its first Monday play when not everyone is out of school, but the holidays are extended to three weekends plus a Monday that should be far better than TFA's first Monday after the holidays, percentage-wise (if not in nominal dollars, I mean the percent fall from Sunday). In other words, you always have 2 days that suck, X-Mas Eve and NYE, but you don't always have the holiday period lasting 3 full weekends plus a bonus Monday, which you have both this coming year and the next year for Episode VIII, which also gets three weekends plus New Years Day actually falling on a Monday. Whatever business may be lost with not everyone on vacation the first few weekdays seems like it would be made up by everyone being on vacation one extra day. That means for some schools, like ones where I am, they have no choice but to give two full weeks plus one day off, whereas they would the majority of time give simply two full weeks off, which means 14 days + 2 weekend days = 16 days. These two years, 17 days. Small difference, sure, but it somewhat makes up for the "crappy placement of holidays" situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 hour ago, a2knet said: Being a bit conservative, 18 19.45 +8% 14.6 -25% 15.3 +5% 223.0 1 week cume Sherlock 2 did 3.2x off the 1st week cume : 186.85/58.75 Rogue One needs only 2.2x for 500 dom. At the moment, it is really dificult to see an scenario with RO grossing less than 500M DOM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveJaros Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just intuitively, $18m seems like a very solid number for Monday, and bodes well for R1's chances to surpass $400m DOM and challenge CA and Dory for DOM film of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Interesting how legs work RO opened below batman vs superman but will out gross it by Monday or Tuesday next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
