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Thurs #s - R1 3.86m, Sing 3.6m, Pass 1.7m

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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Passengers Sony Pictures $1,581,215 -10% 3,478 $455   $72,093,043
             
Fences Paramount Pictures $822,909 -13% 2,301 $358   $35,963,264
Office Christmas Party Paramount Pictures $283,755 -24% 2,441 $116   $53,262,351
Arrival Paramount Pictures $160,732 -15% 545 $295   $93,262,522
Allied Paramount Pictures $21,915 -4% 163 $134   $39,720,190
Silence Paramount Pictures $13,313 -5% 4 $3,328   $382,423
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Paramount Pictures $8,677 n/c 133 $65   $58,627,114
             
Fantastic Beasts and Where … Warner Bros. $405,178 -20% 1,842 $220   $227,256,573
Collateral Beauty Warner Bros. $363,795 -20% 2,745 $133   $28,555,265
The Accountant Warner Bros. $22,899 -4% 222 $103   $86,067,647
Storks Warner Bros. $15,232 -7% 235 $65   $72,567,492
Live by Night Warner Bros. $5,902 6% 4 $1,476   $141,490
Sully Warner Bros. $3,832 3% 94 $41   $125,016,187

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

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5 minutes ago, Alli said:

HA  Passengers dropped. :jeb!:

 

Everything dropped so far (well, almost everything). Might have one of the better drops of the day for the Top Ten when all is said and done. ;)

 

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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La La Land Lionsgate $1,296,486 -10% 750 $1,729   $41,656,587
Hacksaw Ridge Lionsgate $39,965 -16% 352 $114   $64,887,345
Patriots Day Lionsgate $23,663 -15% 7 $3,380   $765,414
             
Why Him? 20th Century Fox $1,213,803 -9% 3,008 $404   $42,059,553
Assassin’s Creed 20th Century Fox $856,227 -11% 2,996 $286   $45,705,783
Hidden Figures 20th Century Fox $81,666 -20% 25 $3,267   $2,954,178
Trolls 20th Century Fox $69,225 -11% 418 $166   $150,847,528
Miss Peregrine’s Home for… 20th Century Fox $8,950 n/c 121 $74   $87,029,991
             
Jackie Fox Searchlight $203,930 -8% 359 $568   $8,196,551

 

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Walt Disney $3,893,517 -8% 4,157 $937   $455,301,354
Moana Walt Disney $1,236,211 -11% 2,775 $445   $218,981,182
Doctor Strange Walt Disney $74,734 -6% 466 $160   $230,590,918
The Queen of Katwe Walt Disney $2,934 2% 53 $55   $8,874,389

 

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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Thursday, January 5, 2017
 

<<Prev Day <Wk <Mo <Yr
     
>Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day
TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day
1 1 Rogue One BV $3,893,517 -8%   -77%   4,157 $937   $455,301,354   21
2 2 Sing Uni. $3,151,685 -13% -79% 4,029 $782 $193,799,645 16
3 3 Passengers (2016) Sony $1,581,215 -10% -66% 3,478 $455 $72,093,043 16
4 4 La La Land LG/S $1,296,486 -10% -48% 750 $1,729 $41,656,587 28
5 5 Moana BV $1,236,211 -11% -70% 2,775 $445 $218,981,182 44
6 6 Why Him? Fox $1,213,803 -9% -56% 3,008 $404 $42,059,553 14
7 7 Assassin's Creed Fox $856,227  -11% -66% 2,996 $286 $45,705,783 16
8 8 Fences Par. $822,909 -13% -65% 2,301 $358 $35,963,264 21
9 9 Manchester by the Sea RAtt. $470,878 -9% -54% 1,206 $390 $31,340,357 49
10 10 Fantastic Beasts .... WB $405,178 -20% -69% 1,842 $220 $227,256,573 49
11 11 Collateral Beauty WB (NL) $363,795 -20% -72% 2,745 $133 $28,555,265 21
12 - Lion Wein. $292,023 -7% -40% 252 $1,159 $7,792,719 42
- 12 Office Christmas Party Par. $283,755 -24% -73% 2,347 $121 $53,262,351 28
- - Jackie FoxS $203,930 -8% -52% 359 $568 $8,196,551 35
- - Arrival Par. $160,732 -15% -51% 545 $295 $93,262,522 56
- - Dangal UTV $107,998 -18% -81% 338 $320 $10,326,157 16
- - Hidden Figures Fox $81,666 -20% -62% 25 $3,267 $2,954,178 12
- - Doctor Strange BV $74,734 -6% -69% 466 $160 $230,590,918 63
- - Trolls Fox $69,225 -11% -73% 418 $166 $150,847,527 63

 

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Finnick Box Office Gold

Finnick

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Posted

WEEKLY CHART:

 

 

<<Last Week <Last Year View Index: By Year | By Week  
TW LW Title (Click to view) Studio Weekly Gross % Change Theater Count / Change Average Total Gross Budget* Week #
1 1 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story BV $79,922,649 -47.9% 4,157 - $19,226 $455,301,354 $200 3
2 2 Sing Uni. $70,198,155 -31.8% 4,029 +7 $17,423 $193,799,645 $75 2
3 3 Passengers (2016) Sony $26,989,430 -28.6% 3,478 - $7,760 $72,093,043 $110 2
4 4 Moana BV $19,922,143 -23.5% 2,775 +88 $7,179 $218,981,182 - 6
5 5 Why Him? Fox $17,500,966 -28.7% 3,008 +91 $5,818 $42,059,553 $38 2
6 8 La La Land LG/S $16,941,388 +0.6% 750 +9 $22,589 $41,656,587 $30 4
7 7 Fences Par. $16,261,120 -16.7% 2,301 +68 $7,067 $35,963,264 $24 3
8 6 Assassin's Creed Fox $14,662,265 -37.7% 2,996 +26 $4,894 $45,705,783 $125 2
9 11 Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them WB $7,241,779 -16.9% 1,842 -124 $3,931 $227,256,573 $180 7
10 12 Manchester by the Sea RAtt. $7,115,706 -5.2% 1,206 -7 $5,900 $31,340,357 - 7
11 9 Collateral Beauty WB (NL) $6,899,648 -35.2% 2,745 -283 $2,514 $28,555,265 $36 3
12 10 Office Christmas Party Par. $5,715,676 -45.6% 2,347 -94 $2,435 $53,262,351 $45 4
13 15 Lion Wein. $3,960,216 +32.9% 252 -248 $15,715 $7,792,719 - 6
14 13 Dangal UTV $3,201,638 -49.1% 338 +7 $9,472 $10,326,157 - 2
15 14 Jackie FoxS $2,720,545 -14.0% 359 +11 $7,578 $8,196,551 - 5
16 16 Arrival Par. $2,430,190 -3.9% 545 +89 $4,459 $93,262,522 $47 8
17 18 Hidden Figures Fox $1,487,783 +1.5% 25 - $59,511 $2,954,178 $25 2
18 19 Trolls Fox $1,180,899 -15.7% 418 -81 $2,825 $150,847,527 $125 9
19 17 Doctor Strange BV $1,129,608 -38.7% 466 -72 $2,424 $230,590,918 $165 9
20 20 Hacksaw Ridge LGF $678,500 -18.8% 352 -76 $1,928 $64,887,345 - 9
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Daxtreme Box Office Gold

Daxtreme

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Posted (edited)

Just wanted to pop by and say that it is time to compare Rogue One actuals with my projected numbers in this post:redcapes:

 

Last Monday I projected the weekly numbers for R1 based on the week-end estimates, and here is what I had after applying a 73% week-to-week drop to the whole week:

 

4-day week-end: 64.35M

Tuesday: 6.1M

Wednesday: 4.9M

Thursday: 4.5M

Total: 79.9M

 

Now, here are the actuals for Rogue One's week:

 

4-day week-end: $65,522,676

Tuesday: $6,268,921

Wednesday: $4,237,535

Thursday: $3,893,517

Total: $79.924M

Difference: +0.03%

 

I must say, I didn't expect it to be THAT close. :ohmyzod:

 

It all happened because of the higher than expected Monday hold, because for the rest of the week, I actually under-predicted the already-huge 73% week-to-week drop I gave Rogue One (it dropped more like 76% on average). I guess Monday's insane number compensated for those huge drops.

 

I then applied a 50% weekly drop to this weekly number for 8 weeks and ended up with 535M. Did the same for 3 other movies (Sherlock Holmes 2, MI:GP, and Alvin) released in 2011, and got a difference between the projection and the actuals of + ~5% on average. (range was 4% for Alvin to 6.77% increase for MI:GP)

So yeah, I said 535M was the floor for Rogue One based on those calculations, so of course that's not gonna change since nothing changed :qotd:

If we apply that 5% bump on average to $535M, we get $560M. To stay on the safe side, I'd say the more probable finish for R1 is $555M, with potential to go up to $575M or so (~1.07 x 535M)

 

Cheers  :hiphiphoray:

 

 

Edited by Daxtreme
typo galore
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elcaballero Box Office Gold

elcaballero

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

Just wanted to pop by and say that it is time to compare Rogue One actuals with my projected numbers in this post:redcapes:

 

Last Monday I projected the weekly numbers for R1 based on the week-end estimates, and here is what I had after applying a 73% week-to-week drop to the whole week:

 

4-day week-end: 64.35M

Tuesday: 6.1M

Wednesday: 4.9M

Thursday: 4.5M

Total: 79.9M

 

Now, here are the actuals for Rogue One's week:

 

4-day week-end: $65,522,676

Tuesday: $6,268,921

Wednesday: $4,237,535

Thursday: $3,893,517

Total: $79.924M

Difference: +0.03%

 

I must say, I didn't expect it to be THAT close. :ohmyzod:

 

It all happened because of the higher than expected Monday hold, because for the rest of the week, I actually under-predicted the already-huge 73% week-to-week drop I gave Rogue One (it dropped more like 76% on average). I guess Monday's insane number compensated for those huge drops.

 

I then applied a 50% weekly drop to this weekly number for 8 weeks and ended up with 535M. Did the same for 3 other movies (Sherlock Holmes 2, MI:GP, and Alvin) released in 2011, and got a difference between the projection and the actuals of + ~5% on average. (range was 4% for Alvin to 6.77% increase for MI:GP)

So yeah, I said 535M was the floor for Rogue One based on those calculations, so of course that's not gonna change since nothing changed :qotd:

If we apply that 5% bump on average to $535M, we get $560M. To stay on the safe side, I'd say the more probable finish for R1 is $555M, with potential to go up to $575M or so (~1.07 x 535M)

 

Cheers  :hiphiphoray:

 

 

:bravo:

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BadAtGender Global Phenomenon

BadAtGender

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Posted

Well, I haven't done it in a while, but I wanted to plug some films into my simple, stupid box office predictor, now that we have a relatively normal week to use.

 

First up:

 

Rogue One

A third week pull of 79.9m pushed the star wars spinoff to 455m. Which is pretty keen.

 

Since the film came out, the conversation has been focused on whether or not it can gross more than The Force Awakens to become the biggest movie of all time.

 

And the answer to that is "technically, yes." It probably passes TFA if it drops about 14-15% per week going forward. So, really, it's "realistically, no."

 

But how about Avatar? Well, in order to make Star Wars a one-two punch at the top of the all time lists, it only needs to drop 20% per week. So, I guess the Cameron fans win this round.

 

700m can happen with only 24% drops, though. And 29% drops get it just barely above 650m. (28% drops have it slightly beating Titanic, if you really want to root for that.)

 

30% drops hit 640m.

35% drops are what's required to do 600m.

40% get to 575m. And 45% drops to 552m.

 

50% drops from here on out and it just edges out TDK.

 

I don't have my calculator set up for any drops bigger than 59%, but even that gets it to 510m. So it would really need to drop off a cliff to fall under 500m.

 

In order for @baumer's club to succeed, it would need to go back in time and earn less money.

 

Anyway, 550m or a bit more seems like where it's going. TDK goes down and we finally have another film in the 500m range.

 

Second:

 

Sing (or is it "Sing!"?)

The latest Illumination offenses to the senses (unless you're @WrathOfHan, I guess) pulled in 70.155m for it's second full week.

 

And I'm sure that everyone's wondering "Can it beat Frozen?"

 

The answer is: Yes, if it can start pulling in 25% drops from here on out.

 

Can it beat SLOP? Yes, with 28% drops.

 

How about Zootopia? 32% drops.

 

35% drops get it to 324m.

40% drops to 299m.

45% drops to 279m.

50% drops to 264m.

 

In order to end up under Despicable Me, it will need to have more than 55% drops from here on out.

 

~280m feels like a target it's going for.

 

Keep those thresholds in mind, though, because we need to look at Sing's biggest competitor for... something:

 

Moana

The latest WDAS musical earned just shy of 20m this week, to put its total just shy of 219m.

 

Can it beat the last WDAS musical, Frozen? No, not it probably cannot. Even topping Zootopia, to become the biggest WDAS movie of the year, would need ~14% drops.

 

20% drops get it to 295m, so it needs to drop better than that to hit 300m.

25% drops to 277m.

30% drops to 265m.

35% drops are good for 255m.

40% hits 248m. (39% just crosses 250m.)

45% has it at 243m, putting it under TS2.

50% drops has it under 240m.

 

So Sing is likely to end up on top. Moana needs to hold considerably better (~15% better), while it's only shown that it's likely to hold a bit better. I had been thinking that while Sing may end up ahead, it's probably be by about 10-20m in the end. More realistically, it should be a 20-30m gap. 280m to 255m, perhaps. It's almost a Shrek vs. Monsters, Inc. redo, all told.

 

Last up? Everyone's favorite critical bomb but surprisingly okay box office contender:

Passengers

The Pratt & Lawrence joint pulled in almost 27m and pushed its total past the 70m mark.

 

If it starts pulling in 20% drops, it will edge past... no, wait, Interstellar earned more than I thought. It needs ~18% drops to edge past it. Good luck on that.

 

However it only needs 25% drops to get past 150m.

30% drops for about a 135m finish.

35% does 122m and change.

40% for 112m.

45% pulls a cool 105m.

 

The magic number, though, seems to be 49%. It does that, it hits a century. It falls 50% from here on, and it's going to JUUUUUST miss it. (or rather, it looks like it's going to miss and miss and miss until Sony does some weird double feature with, um... Well, they'll probably try with Life, but then they'll have to try again so it will seriously be in July with Spider-Man when it actually happens.


It's going to be Spectre all over again, isn't it? Seriously, Sony. How many times do you have to do this to us?

 

 

I'll check again next week to see how things are holding up.

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Daxtreme said:

Just wanted to pop by and say that it is time to compare Rogue One actuals with my projected numbers in this post:redcapes:

 

Last Monday I projected the weekly numbers for R1 based on the week-end estimates, and here is what I had after applying a 73% week-to-week drop to the whole week:

 

4-day week-end: 64.35M

Tuesday: 6.1M

Wednesday: 4.9M

Thursday: 4.5M

Total: 79.9M

 

Now, here are the actuals for Rogue One's week:

 

4-day week-end: $65,522,676

Tuesday: $6,268,921

Wednesday: $4,237,535

Thursday: $3,893,517

Total: $79.924M

Difference: +0.03%

 

I must say, I didn't expect it to be THAT close. :ohmyzod:

 

It all happened because of the higher than expected Monday hold, because for the rest of the week, I actually under-predicted the already-huge 73% week-to-week drop I gave Rogue One (it dropped more like 76% on average). I guess Monday's insane number compensated for those huge drops.

 

I then applied a 50% weekly drop to this weekly number for 8 weeks and ended up with 535M. Did the same for 3 other movies (Sherlock Holmes 2, MI:GP, and Alvin) released in 2011, and got a difference between the projection and the actuals of + ~5% on average. (range was 4% for Alvin to 6.77% increase for MI:GP)

So yeah, I said 535M was the floor for Rogue One based on those calculations, so of course that's not gonna change since nothing changed :qotd:

If we apply that 5% bump on average to $535M, we get $560M. To stay on the safe side, I'd say the more probable finish for R1 is $555M, with potential to go up to $575M or so (~1.07 x 535M)

 

Cheers  :hiphiphoray:

 

 

 

Nice work!

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