Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[Plain Old Tele]

4 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

Rogue One has already surpassed both HP8 & HP1 ($408M & $425M in inflation-adjusted terms) domestically. The only question is how big the margin will end up being. As for AOTC, the weakest Star Wars movie ever made, both in terms of box-office and in terms of quality it's barely behind HP8, or this year's CA: Civil War. It made $405M in adjusted terms. 

 

Then again, in 1977 dollars, ROGUE ONE's only grossed 115m.  

[Porthos]

The thing about a Peter Jackson/Star Wars movie is:  How much of what happened to King Kong and The Hobbit is really 'just one of those things' and how much of it is Jackson getting a little out of control (and this coming from someone who liked The Hobbit)?  I didn't pay much attention to what happened to The Hobbit, but from what I understand, the suits took more and more control of the project* as time went on and that might, MIGHT, have complicated things.

 

* The rumors about the extended edition of Hobbit 3, especially.

Jackson, IMO at least, unquestionably has vision and talent.  And is an exceptional director, both when it comes to said vision and getting the best out of his actors.

 

But, I just worry about project bloat, ya know?

 

One thing is for sure.  A Jackson/SW project would light the trades and blogs ablaze.  It'd almost certainly make the R1 production look like an afternoon tea social, if only because folks would be sniffing around looking for the slightest hint of trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

As an aside, if this ever did happen (and I'm not exactly betting on it), I suspect Baumer's reaction would be akin to that famous opening scene in Scanners.

[robertman2]

I remember hearing rumors that Peter was at least considered for VIII

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

...the suits took more and more control of the project* as time went on...

No, it was PJ all the way. The suits just went along. (And let's be honest, it was probably the right decision from a financial perspective, although the project was already a creative mess since PJ never really had a completed script for the whole thing.)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

No, it was PJ all the way. The suits just went along. (And let's be honest, it was probably the right decision from a financial perspective, although the project was already a creative mess since PJ never really had a completed script for the whole thing.)

 

Oh, okay.  I had heard something about them yanking funding for sfx for the EE of Hobbit 3 which compromised some of the things he wanted in it, but maybe that was them just finally pulling the plug on everything.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Oh, okay.  I had heard something about them yanking funding for sfx for the EE of Hobbit 3 which compromised some of the things he wanted in it, but maybe that was them just finally pulling the plug on everything.

 

...but even if true, that probably would've happened literally post-release.

[grim22]

7 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

No, it was PJ all the way. The suits just went along. (And let's be honest, it was probably the right decision from a financial perspective, although the project was already a creative mess since PJ never really had a completed script for the whole thing.)

 

The Hobbit trilogy has to be the weirdest paced thing ever. From a first movie where nothing happens to a third movie where literally everything happens with a half developed romance plot line and a divine handjob thrown in the middle for no reason whatsoever. Good thing they got in and got out within 2 years flat before they overstayed their welcome.

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

and a divine handjob...

 

Mean.

[cookie]

I actually saw Hobbit 3 very recently.

 

It's a bit better than I remember but it really is just a third act stretched into an entire movie. I still don't see how it couldn't just've been two films.

[elcaballero]

It would have been so much better as a duology. 

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

Mean.

 

I mean look at this 

 

[grey ghost]

4 hours ago, Christmas Baumer said:

My niece saw Moana today and told me "it's the best movie I've ever seen, Uncle Danny."

 

I ask my kids for the top 5 movies, anime, MCU, etc all the time.

 

They must think I'm insane. 

 

 

[elcaballero]

7 minutes ago, cookie said:

I actually saw Hobbit 3 very recently.

 

It's a bit better than I remember but it really is just a third act stretched into an entire movie. I still don't see how it couldn't just've been two films.

I haven't seen it since the theater, but I remember being so disengaged from what it was happening for that very reason. At the very least, Smaug attacking Laketown should have been the ending of The Hobbit 2.

[TwoMisfits]

50 minutes ago, JB33 said:

 

It's going to be interesting to see what happens in 2018. If I'm Disney, I'm putting Han Solo in that mid-December slot regardless of what happens with Avatar 2. They're better off to let Avengers: Infinity War wreak havoc in May and early June than have two of their own tentpoles cannibalizing each other.  

 

Your wish may be Disney's command - http://makingstarwars.net/2017/01/rumor-could-the-untitled-star-wars-han-solo-stand-alone-see-a-december-13th-2018-release-date/

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

I haven't seen it since the theater, but I remember being so disengaged from what it was happening for that very reason. At the very least, Smaug attacking Laketown should have been the ending of The Hobbit 2.

 

 

I'm a big Tolkien fan and I fell asleep during the Hobbit 3.  The movies were way to stretched out, padded, and lacked the spirit of what made the novel fun.

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Your wish may be Disney's command - http://makingstarwars.net/2017/01/rumor-could-the-untitled-star-wars-han-solo-stand-alone-see-a-december-13th-2018-release-date/

 

Cool. It would definitely be the best choice. I mean, even if Avatar 2 takes a huge bite out of it, they don't necessarily NEED Han Solo to be massive. The saga films are the true mega blockbusters and the massive success of Rogue One is just gravy, considering it's ultimately a spinoff, like HS. 

 

Their main event for that year is Avengers: Infinity War anyway.

[cookie]

I feel my biggest issue with the Hobbit trilogy is that none of the three film's have a real flow to them. Even though The Lord of the Rings movies were also all part of one grand story, each film felt like it had a beginning, middle and end.

 

An Expected Journey is basically the first two acts of a movie with a rushed third act that doesn't resolve anything and an ending that's basically "ok we're just going to stop here lol see you next year".

 

Smaug comes the closest to a three-act structure (part of why I like it the most) but then they had to cut the third act short with a bullshit cliffhanger.

 

Five Armies is the polar opposite of Journey and has a middle and end with the third act from the last film tacked on as the beginning.

[Daxtreme]

Alright, a few messages I've seen on reddit prompted me to try this, so I crunched some numbers and here is what I came up with concerning Rogue One's late legs, projected final gross and so on.

 

First of all, I needed weekly drops so I projected Rogue One's daily numbers for this week. I simply considered that Rogue One would drop 73% compared to last week on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. It's a very reasonable week-to-week drop as good comps Sherlock Holmes' AND Mission Impossible's drops in 2011 (top 2 at the time) were both -65%, -70%, and -70% ---- worth noting that Girl With the Dragon Tattoo's drops were -55%, -55%, and -60%, however Alvin's were -70%, -80%, -80% and Tintin -63%, -72%, -75% ---- so all in all, I think -73% all week is a pretty good middle ground and a good start for a projection.

 

Anyway --

 

Tuesday --> 22.5 * 0.27 = 6.1M

Wednesday --> 18 * 0.27 = 4.9M

Thursday --> 16.7 * 0.27 = 4.5M

total = 15.5M

 

Add that to this 4-day week-end (64.35M) and weekly total is 79.9M

Current Dom total with projection, on Jan 5 = 455.3M

 

Now, I simply apply a 50% weekly drop every single week to Rogue One for 8 weeks

 

39.9
20
10
5
2.5
1.25
0.625
0.31

= 79.5M

 

Add that to current Dom total and you end up with 535M

 

Now here is why I think this is the floor for Rogue One...

 

First of all, 50% weekly drops won't happen because of weeks like MLK with epic holds.

 

Second, I ran the same test with TFA, Sherlock Holmes 2, Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and Alvin and the Chipmunks (2011) just to see what happens if you apply a 50% week-to-week drop for the remainder of their runs at the same point in time as Rogue One is right now, since they are good comps (TFA is more for fun because Star Wars )

 

Here is what happened:

 

The Force Awakens - 770.38M Dom total (lol) on Jan 7 (118.4M weekly gross at ~same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops:
59.2
29.6
14.8
7.4
3.7
1.85
1

0.5
= 888.5M projected total (vs 936.6M actual final total, which is 5% higher than projected)
 

Sherlock Holmes 2 - 143.36M Dom total on Jan 5 (33.34M weekly gross at same point in time as Rogue One), then apply 50% weekly drops:
16.7
8.3
4.2
2.1
1
0.5

0.25

0.1
= 176.5M projected total (vs 186.85M actual final total, which is 6% higher than projected)
 

Same maths with MI:Ghost Protocol gives a projected total of 196.35M (vs 209M actual final total, which is 6.4% higher than projected)

 

Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked gives a projected total of 127.5M (vs 133M actual final total, which is 4% higher than projected)

 

Pretty much what that means is that, Final gross of all these movies is 4-6% higher than applying a very simple 50% drops to their weekly gross coming out of the holidays.

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

SO!

 

...the lesson here is that Rogue One's final domestic take has a floor of 535M Domestic, with potential to reach in the ballpark of $570M, which is about 6% higher than 535M

 

I don't see it going much higher than that. That would mean it has better late legs than TFA, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible:GP, and Alvin and the Chipmunks. Alvin, not so hard to believe, the others, not so much...

 

 

That's it.

 

For those if you who already knew this, well, this post wasn't aimed at you 

It's aimed at those other folks out there who genuinely have no idea what range late legs can give a movie.

 

Thanks for watch, hope you liked kino, pls recommend  

 

 

 

[RyneOh1040]

Finally saw Arrival tonight.  Not to be THAT guy but seriously figured out the 'twist' a little before half way through.  It's a testament to how great that the film is that it didn't take away from my viewing experience at all.  Also is there anything Amy Adams can't do.

[Lumos]

2 hours ago, SWXII said:

I remember the days when people claimed Potter would leave Star Wars in the dust bin of history. Doesn't seem like they did their research.

The box office climate has changed so much since the early 2000's. Adjusted for inflation & 3D and taking into account that many overseas markets are much bigger than they use to be, the first HP film would have likely came close to 2 billion in today's bo climate. And HP 2, 4 & 8 over 1.5 billion. They were huge hits. SS and DH2 were the biggest non-James Cameron films of all time worldwide when they were released. Is Star Wars a bigger film series than Potter? Probably yes. Star Wars is a beast there's no denying that. But Potter is a close second. Also, Potter was always more of a literary phenomenon than a film phenomenon. Even if the films were box office duds the series would go down in history forever. Nearly 500 million copies sold worldwide. So if we're comparing box office I would give the edge to SW. If we're comparing actual popularity of the franchises ....I'd say they are pretty much tied worldwide...probably give Potter the slight edge.

Edited January 3, 2017 by Lumos