The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug OS Thread

[peludo]

60m from China would not happen if the date is 2.21. (maybe 50m)

 

Underwhelming English speaking territories and .... South Europe... always dragging back sequels.

If I remember well, that date is very similar to AUJ's, isn't it?

[peludo]

Asuming right now a 30 million gap (Japan must not be counted for the moment) and if it could drop like AUJ from now (what seems difficult but I will give it a last chance), it could make about 690 OS? In that case it would be headed to about 960 WW.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Asuming right now a 30 million gap (Japan must not be counted for the moment) and if it could drop like AUJ from now (what seems difficult but I will give it a last chance), it could make about 690 OS? In that case it would be headed to about 960 WW.

Which is still awesome.

[peludo]

Which is still awesome.

Of course. That is still a huge amount of money and probably 2nd movie of the year. Just a bit disappointing.

[sensui]

It'll come down to China again as it did last year (for a billion). Though if there is a silver lining this time (despite the bad release date), hopefully DOS will not have to play alongside a near 200 million dollar grosser in Journey to the West

Edited December 29, 2013 by sensui

[sensui]

Hobbit will be #2 for the year, unless Despicable Me 2 does something crazy in China

Edited December 29, 2013 by sensui

[CaptainJackSparrow]

It'll come down to China again as it did last year (for a billion). Though if there is a silver lining this time (despite the bad release date), hopefully DOS will not have to play alongside a near 200 million dollar grosser in Journey to the West

So China is the last chance? Either way, 900 mil is awesome.

[Elessar]

I'm surprised how much it lost ground in the last 7 days, especially during the midweek (from -$10m i think it was by last sunday to -$40m this sunday). The weekend itself is only $8m behind. I don't get it.

 

Can somebody explain that to me? It still doesn't make sense.

[fmpro]

I have nothing^

[eXtacy]

Internationally, “Smaug” has eclipsed $340 million, led by strong U.K. grosses that have been on a par with “The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.”

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/the-hobbit-desolation-of-smaug-tops-500-million-worldwide-1201003097/

 

AUJ was at 344M overseas as of Wed and 373M as of Thur. Is it possible we were comparing DoS Thursday to AUJ Wednesday.

 

It would explain the ~40m widening gap even though the weekend was only 8m difference

Edited December 29, 2013 by eXtacy

[A Marvel Fanboy]

If I remember well, that date is very similar to AUJ's, isn't it?

2.21 would not be similar to AUJ (2.22) .... actually.

 

2014's Chinese new year holiday (Spring festival) runs 2.1~2.7 while last year (2013) it was 2.9~2.15. Traditionally, half month (15 days or so) post Spring festival, the marketplace enters slack season as students back to schools. Last year (2013) shools (mostly) reopened on 2.25, this year will be on 2.17.

 

If DoS date was 2.8 (a date as my source was told earlier), it would miss holidays (as it always destined to) but it could still enjoy 10 days school off season time, as well as mighty VD (2.14) boost.

 

However, WB and most Chinese outlets insist the date is 2.21 ... there goes all the student benifits and VD boost. I will put it this way: 2.21 for DoS is a worse (!) slot than 2.22 for AUJ, while 2.8 would be much better.

 

Problems for AUJ in China: pirated copies, long delay and JTTW.

Problems for DoS in China would be: pirated copies (it already emerged ...), long delay and heafty competions despite no JTTW.

 

There are predictions that even Robocop (on 2.6) could do more than DoS due to students and VD boost, which I think cant be ruled out. Prepare for the worst: DoS may not inrease at all from AUJ in China.

[Elessar]

AUJ was at 344M overseas as of Wed and 373M as of Thur. Is it possible we were comparing DoS Thursday to AUJ Wednesday.

 

It would explain the ~40m widening gap even though the weekend was only 8m difference

 

That's what i was saying. But the question still remains how come DOS fell behind AUJ so much between monday and wednesday (or thursday).

Edited December 29, 2013 by Elessar

[peludo]

2.21 would not be similar to AUJ (2.22) .... actually.

 

2014's Chinese new year holiday (Spring festival) runs 2.1~2.7 while last year (2013) it was 2.9~2.15. Traditionally, half month (15 days or so) post Spring festival, the marketplace enters slack season as students back to schools. Last year (2013) shools (mostly) reopened on 2.25, this year will be on 2.17.

 

If DoS date was 2.8 (a date as my source was told earlier), it would miss holidays (as it always destined to) but it could still enjoy 10 days school off season time, as well as mighty VD (2.14) boost.

 

However, WB and most Chinese outlets insist the date is 2.21 ... there goes all the student benifits and VD boost. I will put it this way: 2.21 for DoS is a worse (!) slot than 2.22 for AUJ, while 2.8 would be much better.

 

Problems for AUJ in China: pirated copies, long delay and JTTW.

Problems for DoS in China would be: pirated copies (it already emerged ...), long delay and heafty competions despite no JTTW.

 

There are predictions that even Robocop (on 2.6) could do more than DoS due to students and VD boost, which I think cant be ruled out. Prepare for the worst: DoS may not inrease at all from AUJ in China.

Thank you very much for the explanation. I do not why, but I had already assumed that DOS would not increase in China. I know it is not logical, but I had this feeling since AUJ performance.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

AUJ was at 344M overseas as of Wed and 373M as of Thur. Is it possible we were comparing DoS Thursday to AUJ Wednesday.

 

It would explain the ~40m widening gap even though the weekend was only 8m difference

How could AUJ did 29M on its third Thursday ?

[eXtacy]

How could AUJ did 29M on its third Thursday ?

 

It did, I just browsed through the Hobbit 1 international thread.

 

http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/3845-the-hobbit-an-unexpected-journey-os-thread-over-1b-ww/page-58

Edited December 29, 2013 by eXtacy

[Leyla]

Wait, let me get my crystal ball...

 

 

 

60m from China would not happen if the date is 2.21. (maybe 50m)

 

Underwhelming English speaking territories and .... South Europe... always dragging back sequels.

yeah I read your post quoted in the Dos main thread

wont be expecting miracles now

good thing if it doesnt decrease I guess

Edited December 30, 2013 by Tauriel

[Michael Seng Wah]

Asuming right now a 30 million gap (Japan must not be counted for the moment) and if it could drop like AUJ from now (what seems difficult but I will give it a last chance), it could make about 690 OS? In that case it would be headed to about 960 WW.

 

Hope the current markets will make DoS to 650mil at least,  +China (50mil), +Japan (15mil) = 715mil + DOM 250mil = 965mil.

Unless it holds well, I could see the current market end around 600mil+, possible to get higher?

[zackzack]

That's what i was saying. But the question still remains how come DOS fell behind AUJ so much between monday and wednesday (or thursday).

 

Chinese audience is getting more and more affluent. They are more willing to splurge now that all the factory jobs end up in China. I could see them not wanting to be labelled cheap by buying pirated VCDs, a consequence of the rising standard of living there.

I could see DoS doing $50M or more. Japan has been lukewarm to Hollywood, look at PAC RIM, WOLVERINE & 47 RONIN, all genre movies getting snubbed. They love cartoons & musicals (LES MISERABLES & Pixar movies). China, OTOH, may love this one (Dragon is a very familiar mythological creature in their tradition)

[Hernan Gonzalez]

Today The Hobbit: DOS (Which also means 2 in spanish, he he) became 2013 #1 movie in Spain with more than 18.6 M. so far!!! That doesn't the 23 M. that AUJ did in 2012 but is enough to top this year's market.

Edited December 31, 2013 by HenryBcn

[Olive]

Today The Hobbit: DOS (Which also means 2 in spanish, he he) became 2013 #1 movie in Spain with more than 18.6 M. so far!!! That doesn't the almost 23 M. that AUJ did in 2012 but is enough to top this year's market.

USD or Euro?