The Hobbit: the Desolation of Smaug OS Thread

[Fancyarcher]

Should make more than the first overseas.

[peludo]

Should make more than the first overseas.

Difficult. There are some big markets for this like Spain or South Korea that are well below AUJ. It will need an improve from China and Japan.

[LexJoker]

Smaug screener is out.....don't expect a lot from China now.

[Elessar]

Screeners are out all the time.

[Cosmonaut]

Screeners are out all the time.

Nope.

But still, quality is awful, even 1 BD is not enough for this movie, so it may hrt a bit in China and Japan, but not so much to become a serious problem.

[Elessar]

If the movie comes out over two months after its release elsewhere you can bet a screener is out by that time.

[LexJoker]

Not all movies have their screener get leaked online. But Dvd/bluray-rips do come out almost 1 month before they're officaly released.

[Cosmonaut]

But Dvd/bluray-rips do come out almost 1 month before they're officaly released.

Not month, but 2-3 weeks, yes, crappy scene rips then blu-ray itself, it's the time beetwen production and shops.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

So, at least 950 mil WW?

[zackzack]

OS for TH2 vs TH1 seems to be flat but DOM numbers are about $30M short.

China may save the Hobbits if it breaks out and does $60M+ there.

Then, DoS may hit $1B WW...

Edited December 29, 2013 by zackzack

[htall90]

So with almost flat OS this could make around $980mil so a billion if China does well?

[Elessar]

There's also Japan AUJ has already opened in and DOS hasn't. If it manages to stay flat without Japan that would be good for it's chances of reaching a billion.

Edited December 29, 2013 by Elessar

[peludo]

There's also Japan AUJ has already opened in and DOS hasn't. If it manages to stay flat without Japan that would be good for it's chances of reaching a billion.

If I am not wrong, DOS is flat relative to AUJ without counting Japan, so DOS should try to be better than AUJ in Japan too in order to reach billion.

[Elessar]

As of last Thursday DOS was at $343m OS, AUJ at the same point in its run was at $344m, almost even. Both figures include every market the movies were released in at the time. Or do i miss something?

[peludo]

As of last Thursday DOS was at $343m OS, AUJ at the same point in its run was at $344m, almost even. Both figures include every market the movies were released in at the time. Or do i miss something?

My mistake. I did not know it. Then better. I had looked at last Sunday data. It was at 276 last Sunday. AUJ was at 288 with Japan (280 without it). But if on Thursday was as you say, good news

[Leyla]

firedeep predicted 57 in China as far as I remember

Lets hope it goes there or 60

I count on the dragon 

[Elessar]

For reference:

 

 

THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY had another fantastic weekend, grossing $106.5m with approximately 13.7m admissions from nearly 16,600 screens in 62 territories. The holdover drop was a fantastic 12% and we continue to rank #1 for the 3rd straight week across the world, including France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The international cume through Sunday is $464m.

 

Key Opening:

 

Australia grossed an outstanding A$18m ($18.6m) from 560 screens and ranked a commanding #1. By comparison, results were:

 

84% ahead of LOTR 1

27% ahead of LOTR 2

41% ahead of LOTR 3

46% ahead of SKYFALL

43% ahead of AVATAR

19% ahead of THE DARK KNIGHT RISES

 

Key market holdovers (Weekend / drop / cume )

 

Germany (3rd): €12.6m ($16.7m) / +16% /€45.8m ($60m)

UK (3rd): £6.7m ($10.9m) / +12% / £35.8m ($57.7m)

France(3rd): €6.6m ($8.6m) / +23% / €23.8m ($31.2m)

Russia (2nd): Rbl 170m ($5.6m) / -64% / Rbl 835m ($27m)

Spain (3rd): €2.6m ($3.5m) /-28% / €17.2m ($22.4m)

Korea (3rd): Krw 1.9b ($1.7m) / -51% / Krw 21b ($19.5m)

Italy (3rd): €2.6m / $3.4m / par / € $13.7m ($17.9m)

Mexico (3rd): Ps 23m ($1.77m) / -25% / Ps 193m ($15.1m)

Sweden (MGM) (3rd ): Sek 16m / +33% / Sek 98.5m ($14.8m)

Brazil (3rd): R3.7m ($1.8m) / -21% / R28m ($13.4m)

[Heretic]

NVM

Edited December 29, 2013 by Heretic

[Elessar]

Thought those are numbers for DOS, didn't you?

 

I hope they will be in the same ballpark...

Edited December 29, 2013 by Elessar

[Heretic]