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2011 Best Picture Predicts

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Haven't seen any of these three yet but from what I hear... War Horse, The Descendants, The Artist are locked in at this point

I haven't seen War Horse yet, obviously, but of the three I'd rather have The Descendants win. It's a great movie. The Artist is too... lighthearted.

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Locked

The Artist (momentum is everything with Oscars, and TA seems to have it. Already winning prizes)

The descendants (glowing reviews, success in its first weeks. It reminds me a lot of Up in the air)

The tree of life (divisive film, but has too many diehard supporters, Already winning prizes, plus Pitt year, plus Malick)

Moneyball (has many factors Oscars do love, and also is a mainstream film and well respected by critics. Already with precursors love)

Very probable

Hugo (good early WOM, building a mainstream audience. Already has precursors prizes)

Midnight in Paris (Comeback, success independent film, despite being a summer release it hasn't lost its heat)

The Help (voters can see this as an actress vehicle, but the success it had can proppel to a nom)

War Horse (almost not shown. Also the long time it's been as the frontrunner can turn back to dissappointing results. But it's Spielberg)

Possible

Extremely loud (almost not shown. Early critics precursors didn't name it)

Tinker spy (critics liked it a lot, but possibly not loved it the way a film needs to get Oscars)

Not likely (but not out of the race)

Harry Potter (heavy campaign I didn't expect, but not the kind of film and genre that will get enough supporters)

The Ides of March (the descendants heat hurts this film options)

Dragon Tatoo (not seen, and will likely be divisive between those who preffer the european version)

Young Adult (not seen, but if it's good enough and Theron gets raves for this, it can happen)

Drive (mmmmmaybe we're killing its chances before we should. It had enough critical love)

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Predicts as of right now:

Green Lantern

Bucky Larson

Breaking Dawn 1

The Sitter

Conan

Immortals

Big Momma 3

Sucker Punch

The Worst Movie Ever!

Evil Bong 3D

Whoops! Wrong predicts ;):P

Okay really:

The Artist

Decsendents

Extremly Loud

The Help

Midnight in Paris

Moneyball

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

War Horse

Okay here are other possible titles:

Hugo

DH2

Rango (You never know)

Super 8 (See above)

Young Adult (Forgot about this one)

Dragon Tattoo

The Muppets (Longshot, but yeah)

Drive

50/50

Contigion

Win Win

Not a fan of this multiquote as I wanted to quote the 2 posts I had that I had in another post.

Anyway, one thing I will add that I believe Hugo will be nominated now. Making it 9 films.

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WB will be spending $100m on DH2's Oscar campaign.

I love Harry Potter and everything but that's fucking ridiculous. What a waste of money.

It represents everything that's wrong with the Oscars/Golden Globes/Critics etc. You have to "campaign" for them and spend money. The work should stand on its own.

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Exactly. Its all who pays the most now or who is the most political.

Something of intrest though I learned about 6 or 7 years ago, that apparently Mel Gibson did no campaining for Braveheart. As he felt like the Oscars should not be campained but what was liked the most.

And ironically his film won.

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