Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[interiorgatordecorator F]

17 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

 

Won't happen. Even with a $200M OW, 2nd weekend Saturday is Christmas Eve which is basically the worst possible day for it. My hope is it's less than 55%. 

 

3rd weekend then?

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator F said:

 

3rd weekend then?

 

We will see how it goes. If legs are going to be 4x then I'd say 55% 2nd weekend drop and 20% 3rd weekend. If legs are going to be 5x, I'd say 45-50% 2nd weekend and sub 10% 3rd weekend. 

[Fanboy]

3rd Weekend has New Years Eve falling on Saturday which will also cause a dent in weekend earnings. It will have to have stupidly big weekday numbers to break 2nd or 3rd weekend record. 

[JustLurking]

3 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

If you look on reddit you'll find people still debating whether or not it's going to make $1 billion.

I went there to check and that sub is insane. A lot of people genuinely think this is going to be run of the mill MCU tier. I don't get it.

 

Anyway, 2b looks quite likely to me but there's still the possibility that reception won't be as strong as we think. That would make the castle fall. Otherwise I think it's going to happen.

Edited November 24, 2022 by JustLurking

[ThomasNicole]

This is not looking good 

 

 

 

 

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is not looking good 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, people need to keep their China expectation low and just accept that this won't have the run it could have had there. Maybe it can have a long run instead to make up for it somewhat but it's definitely not going to be able to max out here. Just take whatever China gives as a bonus and move on, it's not worth fixating on. It is what it is.

Edited November 24, 2022 by JustLurking

[stuart360]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

I don't really care that much on the opening, I want to see SW:TFA biggest 2nd weekend record to go down! 

This film is going to be more about high week days, and high legs, not any kind of weekend record, well unless we are talking about weekend records weeks into its release.

As big as this film is going to be (and i still think it has a chance at being the biggest, assuming the film is great), its still a sequel to a 13 year old film. This isnt a Star Wars or Marvel fanboy driven film.

A film like this is going to be more about its legs.

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

 

24:57 - 25:09

Zoe Zaldana saying that avatar 2 is much worse than avatar 3

 

Edited November 24, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[MikeQ]

The TV spots that have been popping up have given me some good vibes, and suggest that we have seen only glimpses of the 3+ hour film. It's rather thrilling to think about the potential - what we could be in store for, in the way that the original did 13 years ago. We have so few cinematic blockbusters these days that feel like they truly hold such wondrous possibilities. Hoping for the best.

 

Zoe Saldana looks like she is probably going to make me emotional again. She's the heart of the original film, and I'm looking forward to seeing her Neytiri again in Way of Water. Wish we had someone more capable than Sam Worthington as Jake, but we've got Sigourney back, plus Kate Winslet, etc.

 

Peace,

Mike

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

 

24:57 - 25:09

Zoe Zaldana saying that avatar 2 is much worse than avatar 3

 

I picked up on that too when I was watching. Interesting comment.

[AniNate]

FYI the OG is back on Disney+

[SullyJake]

19 hours ago, adaros said:

China release is shocking itself, but I think it's good to lower our expectations how much $ it will make there. From online reports around 50% cinemas in China are closed and zero covid restrictions are big thing. If anybody expects Endgame or close numbers in China they will be very disappointed.

Noted. I shouldn't get too excited about China as anything can happen, I have therefore revised my China prediction from 4b to 3.8b

Edited November 24, 2022 by SullyJake

[Valonqar]

8 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Yeah, people need to keep their China expectation low and just accept that this won't have the run it could have had there. Maybe it can have a long run instead to make up for it somewhat but it's definitely not going to be able to max out here. Just take whatever China gives as a bonus and move on, it's not worth fixating on. It is what it is.

 

If TGM could make almost 1.5B w/o China and NWH almost 2B w/o China it would be really embarrassing for Avatar if it needed big China (let alone China at all) to hit a milestone. 

[IronJimbo]

45 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

If TGM could make almost 1.5B w/o China and NWH almost 2B w/o China it would be really embarrassing for Avatar if it needed big China (let alone China at all) to hit a milestone. 

 

yeah if the conditions in China cause Avatar 2 to get something low like 200-300m there, then so be it.

The film it's competing against is Avatar and that $260m there (thanks to re-release). It makes the battle for highest grossing film of all time more fair.

Edited November 24, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Deuce66]

13 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

If you look on reddit you'll find people still debating whether or not it's going to make $1 billion.

 

WoW is already set to make more than $500 million domestic, if the ratio to international is 30/70 that's $1.666 Billion right there. The movie would have to be Battlefield Earth level of awful in order to crash and burn below $1B. That's not going to happen on a Cameron directed/produced movie.

 

 

[Eric the Minion]

 

[Valonqar]

Shit, Cameron has just said LOTR:ROP is the best TV series he's ever seen.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Valonqar

[adaros]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Shit, Cameron has just said LOTR:ROP is the best TV series he's ever seen.

I don't believe he have time to watch any TV series at all working on Avatar sequels.
From 2019, he didn't approve The Abyss 4k remaster for last 3 years. Wtf James you now watch ROP like nothing's happening. 

“it’s a question of time-management. True Lies and The Abyss both have Blu-ray transfers that are complete for my review. The problem is the next 14 hours when I have to go back and trim the color and get each one perfect. That’s 28 hours. I don’t have 28 hours”.  

Edited November 24, 2022 by adaros

[Valonqar]

So let me get this straight:

 

Cameron thinks the blandest most unspiring yet most expensive show on TV is the best ever

 

Avatar 2 review embargo lifts only 3 days before release 

 

[Eric the Minion]