Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I just reran the numbers with a lower threshold across the board (including only $625M DOM and $400M China) and it still came out to $2.15B

 

We’re gonna be fine, folks!

Do you see now why i was so adamant that 2bil was locked he he.😇

I have also gone over the run using different numbers, and i just couldnt get it under 2bil.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You realise if it does open to your new OW predictions then a smaller than 20% drop is in play for weekend 2

I don’t believe that’s true but we will see how it goes  

[stuart360]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I don’t believe that’s true but we will see how it goes  

Snow storms in the US that could effect OW, sound familiar?. Even God knows not to doubt Cameron and he's giving us a clue of a near flat 2nd weekend, just like the first film|!.

[Cap]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You realise if it does open to your new OW predictions then a smaller than 20% drop is in play for weekend 2

Not when the weekend includes Christmas Eve on a Saturday and Christmas on a Sunday. We really should prepare ourselves for a couple bad weekend to weekend drops that will stabilize in January. Though I think the weekdays will be strong enough to balance things out. 
 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Snow storms in the US that could effect OW, sound familiar?. Even God knows not to doubt Cameron and he's giving us a clue of a near flat 2nd weekend, just like the first film|!.

2nd WE has Christmas Eve on Saturday. That’s going to nuke the strongest day of the weekend. If it does only drop 20%, then a billion DOM is still on the table.

[cookie]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You realise if it does open to your new OW predictions then a smaller than 20% drop is in play for weekend 2

Christmas Eve says hi.

[stuart360]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

2nd WE has Christmas Eve on Saturday. That’s going to nuke the strongest day of the weekend. If it does only drop 20%, then a billion DOM is still on the table.

I was only messing with that post, although i do feel Christmas weekend is going to drop a lot less than most people think.

[ThomasNicole]

Yeah, for all the weird conversations this week, i don't think anyone is really lowering their prediction. 

 

For OW yes, but most people seems to still believe it's getting to around 2B (600M DOM / 400M CHI / 1B OS). Most people are being reasonable, even die hard fans expecting 3B are fine with the opening and are just waiting the next weeks.

 

When a movie is on track to gross a colossal 2B or something close to this and there still space for "disappointing" talks, you know the expectations is simply unreal at this point.

 

But yeah seems like some people are just in the mood for overeactions... Somehow 83% on RT is bad for some, the pretty good audience reception on SK are being spinned as meh etc. And weirdly enough, the overeactions aren't coming from the die hard fans. 

 

For a movie that really depends way more of week 2 and 3 than it's debut i think the next days are shaping up to be extremelly annoying with a few members being loud enough to doom & gloom about everything.

[dignam]

Cinema is packed, not bad for wednesday evening while WC is playing. Not to shabby that germany was kicked out, if they would have played right now, the cinema would be empty 

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Cap said:

Not when the weekend includes Christmas Eve on a Saturday and Christmas on a Sunday. We really should prepare ourselves for a couple bad weekend to weekend drops that will stabilize in January. Though I think the weekdays will be strong enough to balance things out. 
 

 

 

Depending on where it's strong and when it's strong, Xmas Eve early closures may matter less for Avatar 2.  Right now, my theaters are ending shows by 7:45pm (so no 8pm or later starts).  But, we're seeing these 8pm or later starts (especially 10pm or later) are currently Avatar 2's weakest presold showings, so it may not hurt AS much as a normal Xmas Eve might...

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Cap said:

Not when the weekend includes Christmas Eve on a Saturday and Christmas on a Sunday. We really should prepare ourselves for a couple bad weekend to weekend drops that will stabilize in January. Though I think the weekdays will be strong enough to balance things out.

always been more of a weekday guy myself anyway

[MikeQ]

18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

You realise if it does open to your new OW predictions then a smaller than 20% drop is in play for weekend 2

 

I've never been more confident in saying that I don't think there's really any scenario where this film drops 20% in its 2nd weekend. With Christmas eve on the Saturday, WOM can be exceptional and I don't see such a drop.

 

Of course, I hope I'm wrong, because that would be incredible to witness. But my suggestion is to look to the relative day-by-day performance over the week - how is it performing for the calendar configuration it is in - instead of being so focused on the weekend drop.

 

Peace,

Mike

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

2nd WE has Christmas Eve on Saturday. That’s going to nuke the strongest day of the weekend. If it does only drop 20%, then a billion DOM is still on the table.

 

5 minutes ago, cookie said:

Christmas Eve says hi.

 

Before the weekend even starts, it will be down 10-15% (at least) because of the previews.  Then add Christmas Eve on top of that and you've got A LOT of ground to make up to talk about sub 20% drop.

[stuart360]

One of my personal favorite parts of the orig AVATAR run was all those 100+mil international weekends ina row. I think it was something like 6 or 7 100+mil weekends in a row.

Hopefully we get something similar with A2, although ironically the 2nd weekend could fall under 100mil as a lot of international countries shut cinemas completely on Christmas Day.

Edited December 14, 2022 by stuart360

[dignam]

Wow the guy from the cinema told us we have one of the best screens in europe. 

[SchumacherFTW]

25 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

I'm going to XX this out as a potential viewing option, I keep hearing very mixed/mostly negative things about this format. 

 

 

 

Screen X is always to be avoided. Regal/Cineworld need to find a way to sever that contract and turn these back in to normal screens ASAP. 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, dignam said:

Wow the guy from the cinema told us we have one of the best screens in europe. 

Hope you enjoy it bud.

[Verrows]

15 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

I've never been more confident in saying that I don't think there's really any scenario where this film drops 20% in its 2nd weekend. With Christmas eve on the Saturday, WOM can be exceptional and I don't see such a drop.

 

Of course, I hope I'm wrong, because that would be incredible to witness. But my suggestion is to look to the relative day-by-day performance over the week - how is it performing for the calendar configuration it is in - instead of being so focused on the weekend drop.

 

Peace,

Mike

This!! You'd think by now everyone would be well aware that this time of year is when calendar configuration matters the most! The calendar shifting just one day has a domino effect at Christmas time.

 

It's not an exact science of course but people should be looking at the dailies for Rogue One in 2016 as a direct reference for Avatar (not the raw numbers but the drops and jumps from day to day).

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Screen X is always to be avoided. Regal/Cineworld need to find a way to sever that contract and turn these back in to normal screens ASAP. 

I have no experience with the format at all but it just seems like such an awful idea.

[Mr Roark]

The final battle is extremely tense, incredibly choreographed, full of emotions and twists, but definitely less “epic” in scale compared to the “battle for Pandora” of the first one. Both extremely good.