Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Why shouldn't we expect an MCU pattern of opening weekends?  This is the sequel to the highest grossing movie OF ALL TIME!

 

Before I see the trailer and all the online reactions to go with it, I'm still thinking something like Rogue One domestically - 150/530-550m or so.  

 

That's completely in the MCU upper tier of opening weekends and domestic totals.

 

You're actually somewhat right here, Avatar:TWOW is actually the sequel to the highest grossing film in HUMAN HISTORY.

 

So what does the sequel to a the highest grossing film of all time look like, considering Avatar was indeed a stand-alone film and a complete new and original IP.

The answer is that we don't really know, as that has not been done in this era.

 

Disney's marketing will be outrageous, I know that for sure. It will tap into people's memories of getting mesmorised back in 2009.

 

The trailers will be amazing, and if seen in the correct quality, the juxtaposition between it and the rest of blockbusters will be HUGE.

 

It's opening weekend will be the biggest ever for a sequel to an original movie, and some.

[Reddroast]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Nah, the negative Avatar buzz went up to the release too

https://slate.com/culture/2009/12/is-avatar-destined-to-flop.html

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/avatar-might-be-the-longest-biggest-flop-ever/1863772/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1235154/Has-James-Cameron-Hollywoods-scariest-man-blown-200-million-biggest-movie-flop-ever.html

I have a rule of thumb: if the daily mail says something the opposite happens

[ImNotExcited]

2 hours ago, SnokesLegs said:

The trailer will have depressed views compared to what it would have had if it hadn’t been attached to DS2, there’s no doubt about that, so it’ll almost be a pointless metric trying to use those figures to gauge how interested people are in the film. It’ll be similar to how the first DS2 trailer wasn’t setting the world on fire with its online debut after it’d already been seen by everyone who stayed to the end of NWH.

I think they can swing some good numbers off of the curiosity of seeing what the mythological "Avatar 2" looks like. Will probably fall somewhere in the non-Avengers MCU trailer range.

[IronJimbo]

20 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Nah, the negative Avatar buzz went up to the release too

https://slate.com/culture/2009/12/is-avatar-destined-to-flop.html

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/avatar-might-be-the-longest-biggest-flop-ever/1863772/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1235154/Has-James-Cameron-Hollywoods-scariest-man-blown-200-million-biggest-movie-flop-ever.html

The dailymail one has some nice Jim quotes.

 

Quote

 

Overwhelmingly confident in his own vision, this week Cameron said he could not envisage Avatar failing: 'It's hard for me to imagine that it's not going to work for people.'

But executives at Fox, the company which has put up the majority of the money, are 'very scared, nay terrified, that it is all going to go wrong', one movie insider told me.

The question is, has Hollywood's most monstrous genius finally gone mad?

 

🤣

[Macleod]

1 hour ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Titanic was the same way, there was so much "negativity" towards both these movies before release that they opened soft but then when word came back the floodgates opened. They actually did better in week#2!!! which is unheard of with almost all blockbusters. 

 

34 minutes ago, Joel M said:

For Titanic the doom and gloom I think went all the way up to the weekend of the release. I was too young to know this from memory but the articles from the time give a general sigh of relief "Not a flop" feeling. It probably won't be a bust, it has good wom so it'll recoup it's budget over the holidays etc.

 

Exactly.  This was of course a huge gamble and fairly unprecedented partnership/late-stage agreement between 20th Century Fox and Paramount.  I was working a preview screening the week of opening, even invited my parents to it, but no one quite knew how this expensive endeavor would turn out.  The production had of course been dogged for months prior with rumors of on-set trouble, arguments, budget overruns, etc.  In the room prior to the screening, there was definitely the sense of unease from the audience -- no one was quite sure if this thing would go boom or bust.  But to this day, my parents talk about seeing the movie at that moment, they will never forget it.  

[IronJimbo]

Original Movies live and die by their quality. Luckily for us, Jim is the most reliable blockbuster maker in history and doesn't miss.

 

[IronJimbo]

An interesting thing that I brought up years ago.

Pandora – The World of Avatar is basically a physical advertisment that has been working its magic on the North American general audience. The chances of someone whose been there and on the attractions going to the opening weekend most be substainally higher than they would have been. I've heard of people who are fan of the flight of passage ride more than they are of the film.

[Warmaster506]

Over $200 million  opening weekend for sure. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Warmaster506

[JustLurking]

43 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Nah, the negative Avatar buzz went up to the release too

https://slate.com/culture/2009/12/is-avatar-destined-to-flop.html

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/avatar-might-be-the-longest-biggest-flop-ever/1863772/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1235154/Has-James-Cameron-Hollywoods-scariest-man-blown-200-million-biggest-movie-flop-ever.html

The best thing about avatar being expected to be the biggest flop ever is that titanic was also expected to be the biggest flop ever. Funny how that works.

 

Still have no idea how this huge wildcard of a film will perform but it's wildly amusing watching people locked on their beliefs before a trailer is even officially released.

[Joel M]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

Nah, the negative Avatar buzz went up to the release too

https://slate.com/culture/2009/12/is-avatar-destined-to-flop.html

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/avatar-might-be-the-longest-biggest-flop-ever/1863772/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1235154/Has-James-Cameron-Hollywoods-scariest-man-blown-200-million-biggest-movie-flop-ever.html

"Watts says his models—which don’t consider factors like Avatar’s opening on IMAX screens and the size of the film’s marketing blitz—predict a $65 million to $84 million first-weekend gross. He notes that search volume for Avatar at this stage—one week before release—is about the same as the count for Wolverine, a movie that earned $87 million on its opening weekend."

"On Wednesday, Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere quoted a box-office seer who believes Avatar will make about $70 million on its opening weekend—right around what Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King took in back in 2003. For Wells, the question is whether the film will be a hit or a mega-hit."

 

The Slate article is the only one that has industry expectations on it which are far from the mega flop everyone expected a few months earlier. The other articles are all about gut feeling and anecdotal hearsay that a screening was mixed or  an insider was anxious etc.

Ofc they were doubters right up to the last minute but I don't think the general consesus on December 10 was that this might struggle for its life against Alvin and Sherlock Holmes. I think the major shift happened earlier but maybe I'm misremembering.

 

[AniNate]

Sure, but all the same it was a narrative that journalists were trying to run with all the way through the release

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Sure, but all the same it was a narrative that journalists were trying to run with all the way through the release

 

 

What narrative?  That it was a very expensive movie and nobody knew if it was going be successful?

[AniNate]

The headlines were pushing "flop". That's all most people were going to read.

[Jake Gittes]

1 hour ago, Joel M said:

Ofc they were doubters right up to the last minute but I don't think the general consesus on December 10 was that this might struggle for its life against Alvin and Sherlock Holmes. I think the major shift happened earlier but maybe I'm misremembering.

 

My (admittedly hazy) memory is that the tide turned pretty definitively in the movie's favor after they finally released that killer full trailer in late October. 

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, AniNate said:

Nah, the negative Avatar buzz went up to the release too

https://slate.com/culture/2009/12/is-avatar-destined-to-flop.html

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/avatar-might-be-the-longest-biggest-flop-ever/1863772/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-1235154/Has-James-Cameron-Hollywoods-scariest-man-blown-200-million-biggest-movie-flop-ever.html

LMAO at the Slate journalist who said  "the film’s CGI scenes bear an unfortunate and uncanny resemblance to the Jar Jar Binks-era Star Wars movies"

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

The headlines were pushing "flop". That's all most people were going to read.

 

Okay?  I guess the real question I have is, what would be the purpose of "pushing a narrative" like this?  

 

That's what I'm trying to understand.  I've seen that comment before on something similar, but I don't understand what you think they are trying to do.

[AniNate]

I'm just saying some people were still thinking the movie might flop when it came out, even it was just headline writers

[Deep Wang]

37 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I'm just saying some people were still thinking the movie might flop when it came out, even it was just headline writers

 

Okay, so you don't have an answer.  I'll move on then!

[IronJimbo]

Funny thought.

Avatar fandom on this site will be like how Star Wars was, theres going to be 100-500+ new accounts over 2023 who got interested in seeing how much money it made and following its box office run.

 

It will be so nice to not be the outcast for a change because I'm not following the current online nerd meta (even tho i am one).

This isn't fandom wars by the way, I'm not saying anything bad of star wars, just pointing out how popular it was on here.

[SchumacherFTW]

6 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You're actually somewhat right here, Avatar:TWOW is actually the sequel to the highest grossing film in HUMAN HISTORY.

 

So what does the sequel to a the highest grossing film of all time look like, considering Avatar was indeed a stand-alone film and a complete new and original IP.

The answer is that we don't really know, as that has not been done in this era.

 

Disney's marketing will be outrageous, I know that for sure. It will tap into people's memories of getting mesmorised back in 2009.

 

The trailers will be amazing, and if seen in the correct quality, the juxtaposition between it and the rest of blockbusters will be HUGE.

 

It's opening weekend will be the biggest ever for a sequel to an original movie, and some.

I can't see it out opening the $180m that Incredibles 2 managed