Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[CaptNathanBrittles]

AVATAR dropped roughly 25% from TITANIC adjusted. A similar drop for AVATAR 2 would put it at around $700m.

 

[Dale Cooper]

The thing is that all those sequels to the big break out movies aren't really comparable to this movie because of big gap between the movies. One could easily argue that a more appropriate comparision would be how, for example, Jurassic World did compared to Jurassic Park or how Episode I and Episode VII did compared to Episode IV and Episode I respectively. Not saying it will increase like these movies did, but considering it could probably lose about 1/3 of Avatar's audience and still gross about the same it's not at all comparable to the the other direct sequels. Few of those actually lost that much of their audience.

[Lothar]

There's a whole new generation ready to dive into the oceans of Pandora.

 

Wanna see? 

 

If A1 can make more than any other movie from scratches why can't second? Why are we keep underestimating Avatar 2

[Maggie]

I'm playing devil's advocate,  but the First Black Panther made over 700M yet this second one is gonna drop hard. The circumstances are not exactly the same, but i wonder why the hard drop for Wakanda and what it could mean for A2?

Edited November 18, 2022 by Maggie

[Lothar]

A movie began its OW in 70+mil, when everyone was slamming in news stories. We notice a sudden shift in tone when Avatar begins to break each record one by one. We've all heard of so-called experts quoting Navis blue monkeys.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Lothar said:

There's a whole new generation ready to dive into the oceans of Pandora.

 

Wanna see? 

 

If A1 can make more than any other movie from scratches why can't second? Why are we keep underestimating Avatar 2

 

The issue is the underestimation of the film itself.

The film will be visually stunning, everyone knows that, but the copium is that it won't be as visually stunning as the first movie was in 2009 relative to the rest of the field. After seeing a scene in IMAX 3D, I don't think this is even true, and if it is, it's still so far ahead of everything else which is popular (marvel/star wars) that it's going to get attention through this.

Then the next issue is that they think the film lives and dies by the visuals showing a lack of understanding to why the first movie did well in the first place. The main and core thing that caused Avatar to resonate so much was indeed helped by the visuals, but it was the visceral feeling like you're actually on Pandora. Don't take my word for it though, it's Big Jim's own words. He says the main and core thing that made the first movie so special was the dream-like feeling you're experiencing an alien world. Tarantino summed it on in an interview in a different way when he called Avatar "a ride", and something he always dreamed of doing in kill-bill but couldn't pull it off. Jimbo actually threw out the original Avatar 2 script aswell, and the reason was because it did not adhere to this core feeling. He started completely a new, and tried to capture this core feeling.

I could write an essay on why Avatar 2 will be a special movie that sticks out like a sore thumb in the state of modern blockbusters, but I'm lazy. What I will say though is that people may believe I'm a delusional fanboy or whatever, but the thing is I do actually know an incredible amount about this production and do have legitmate confidence that this film will blow everyones socks off.

[omark]

Avatar London Premiere coming December 6

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/ClHRxBTI5ym/?hl=it

Edited November 18, 2022 by omark

[adaros]

27 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I'm playing devil's advocate,  but the First Black Panther made over 700M yet this second one is gonna drop hard. The circumstances are not exactly the same, but i wonder why the hard drop for Wakanda and what it could mean for A2?

First BP did great business in domestic market and sequel don't have Chadwick; drop was expected. Avatar is more of OS beast so curious how it will perform outside of domestic, real wildcard.

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

AVATAR dropped roughly 25% from TITANIC adjusted. A similar drop for AVATAR 2 would put it at around $700m.

 

Might be using an outdated adjusted number, because using ticket price ratio 7.5 ATP in 2009 and 11 ATP in 2022 would put the Avatar adjusted number close to 1.1B, and a 25% decrease would still be $800M +

[NCsoft]

15 minutes ago, omark said:

Avatar London Premiere coming December 6

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/ClHRxBTI5ym/?hl=it

 

Assuming they are going to be doing screening for critics and other award bodies to get into nominations, I think we can probably expect to read first reactions on social media in early Dec, very close now!

 

[Fanboy]

The first Avatar had a Titanic sized run in Australia. It managed to double Titanic's gross which was still the highest grossing movie in Aus at the time, making $115 million which if you follow the 1:10 ratio is equivalent to about 1.15 billion in the US. No movie has come within 20M of it since although TFA and Top Gun Maverick came close. Its box office run is going to be very interesting here, especially with little competition given Christmas holidays are also our summer holidays. 

I also think if reviews are stellar and equivalent or better than the original, 200M+ OW is at play. That's only what, maybe half of Endgame's tickets?  

[Alexdube]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I'm playing devil's advocate,  but the First Black Panther made over 700M yet this second one is gonna drop hard. The circumstances are not exactly the same, but i wonder why the hard drop for Wakanda and what it could mean for A2?

Try completely different

I don't think anyone should move their predictions by even a hair

Edited November 18, 2022 by Alexdube

[Deuce66]

53 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I'm playing devil's advocate,  but the First Black Panther made over 700M yet this second one is gonna drop hard. The circumstances are not exactly the same, but i wonder why the hard drop for Wakanda and what it could mean for A2?

 

Black Panther week#1 is now complete with $220.7 million domestic. How much will it drop for week#2?

Other notables and their week#1 totals
TGM: $205.6 million - week 2 drop 33% to $137.74 million
Jurassic W/D: $191.1 - week 2 drop 55.4% to $85.2
Doc Strange: $230.9 - week 2 drop 65.5% to $79.62
Minions: $164.5 - week 2 drop 56.2% to $72.0
The Batman: $172.5 - week 2 drop 47.4% to $90.77
Thor L&T: $187.2 - week 2 drop 64.3% to $66.85

 

I've already posted what Cameron movies tend to do in week 2's, both are Christmas/New Years period releases. 

 

Avatar - week 2 UP 6.9% - week 3 down 33.9% - week 4 down 27.8% - week 5 down 5%

Titanic - week 2 UP 34.4% - week 3 down 36.8% - week 4 down 16.5% - week 5 UP 13%

 

Who knows, maybe WoW will blow the doors off the box office once again. 

[GOGODanca]

https://www.instagram.com/p/ClHRxBTI5ym/

 

London Premier on the 6th

 

 

[Sophia Jane]

Presale starting next week,we will see the performence soon

[Porthos]

Previews for A2 will be 3pm in the Domestic market.

 

SOURCE: ME.

 

(okay, source is me seeing the showtimes starting to pop up at one of my locals)

[IronJimbo]

25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Previews for A2 will be 3pm in the Domestic market.

 

SOURCE: ME.

 

(okay, source is me seeing the showtimes starting to pop up at one of my locals)

 

Why do the say its being released on the 16th...that's just the 15th. box office is weird sometimes.

 

The final stretch of marketing needs to empathise the 3D will be incredible, or the opening weekend might take a hit (2nd won't as WOM will let everyone know the 3D is good)

Edited November 19, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Sophie]

Box Office Pro is afraid to post their Avatar predictions??

 

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Why do the say its being released on the 16th...that's just the 15th. box office is weird sometimes.

 

Fandango doesn't include Preview Night (or indeed any sort of Early Access) as Release Day.  So, the film technically releases in the states and Canada on Dec 16, but it has previews on the 15th.

 

Sooner or later this is gonna break though as "preview night" gets pushed further and further into the day.  We're not that far off from Noon/1pm previews. 

 

Might as well just say films release on Thursdays, except...

 

...

 

Except then they'll ramp up "early access" showings on either Tues or Weds and start the whole ball of wax rolling again.

[WittyUsername]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Previews for A2 will be 3pm in the Domestic market.

 

SOURCE: ME.

 

(okay, source is me seeing the showtimes starting to pop up at one of my locals)

That’s become the norm at this point. I find it rather annoying, but as long as they don’t do “early access” screenings, I guess I can live with it.