Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[SnokesLegs]

44 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

LOl Im wondering where all the slow down talk is coming from. Since tickets are sold out everywhere Jimbo.

It’s because pre-sales have slowed down compared to what we’d normally expect to see. It’s skewing heavily towards PLF’s, but it’s absolutely not sold out everywhere. Regular 3D showings are very quiet near me, and 2D is nowhere near sold out.

 

People seem to be waiting for a PLF showing rather than going for the regular shows, which is why we’re seeing pre-sales deeper into the weekend.

 

Regardless though, it’s still going to open bigger than the original, which is still great.

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Presales patterns everywhere have not picked up as many had hoped. Obviously there are still many variables to play out but on the domestic side, OW tracking seems to be pointing a bit lower than even my previous estimation. We are probably looking at $130-150M now. 

Still optimistic I see

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Ha ha, i mean even looking at your revised US predictions above XXR, you're talking 600+mil US, and if this film gets anywhere close to the domestic/international split the first film had, it would still be over 2bil WW.

Yea I’m still on the $2B+ wagon. I’d be shocked if it came in below that. But I’m also not risking my account on it 😅

[adaros]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I don't want to rain on anyone's parade as I am not sure myself of how things will go in the market, but I am actually not sure it will make much more than NWH in Japan.

Not to poke you or anything but you really are expecting 80% drop in revenue compared to first Avatar in Japan?

[Maggie]

Come one guys, don't leave. This forum is so much fun and you are one of the reasons why (it's gonna do 2B anyway)

[Nero]

3 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

It’s skewing heavily towards PLF’s, but it’s absolutely not sold out everywhere. Regular 3D showings are very quiet near me, and 2D is nowhere near sold out.

Same situation here. Not even a single show is sold out. Normal 3D and 2D aren't even half full.

[JustLurking]

Just now, adaros said:

Not to poke you or anything but you really are expecting 80% drop in revenue compared to first Avatar in Japan?

First of all, it's not that high when you consider the fact that Japan ER peaked for A1 and has collapsed this year - in yen it's more like -60% and Japan is inflationless.

 

Second, I am just speaking to what I see. Sequels often struggles on legs in Japan and this will absolutely not open big, I am just not seeing the sales for it to do so unless walk-ups surprise a TON (but SK is setting a really bad walk-up precedent).

 

This is more of a bad case scenario, but I don't think it's particularly unlikely.

 

 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Maggie said:

Come one guys, don't leave. This forum is so much fun and you are one of the reasons why (it's gonna do 2B anyway)

 

Well I'm not planning on leaving, this is making over 2 billies easy.

If we did however live in a timeline where Avatar 2 makes less than a spiderman film, well, I don't really want to spend my time on a box office forum anymore

[Nero]

4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

But I’m also not risking my account on it 😅

 

Would be funny as hell if you banned yourself 😂😂😂😂

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Yea I’m still on the $2B+ wagon. I’d be shocked if it came in below that. But I’m also not risking my account on it 😅

I'm not revising my estimates until christmas unless this really disappoints, but I am kind of bracing for it so to speak. Let us see what happens but I am not as confident as I was 2 days ago that is for sure.

[Chaz]

This reminds me of last year when Adele fans were certain that 30 was going to do 1.5 million+ its first week, but ended up at 800k. 

[stuart360]

10 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Yea I’m still on the $2B+ wagon. I’d be shocked if it came in below that. But I’m also not risking my account on it 😅

I'm just confident and wanted to prove how confident i am.

 

I just cant get my head around how this mises 2bil WW.

I mean with todays ticket prices, 2bil would be what?, a third to a half of the orig film?. I think the film would have to be pretty terrible with pretty bad reviews for that to happen.

 

I also feel that slower pre-sales is simply because of the time of year it is, and people probably planning to see the film with their family over Chritmas week. Or even like some are saying, some people are willing to wait for a top seat, etc.

 

I'm sure we will know its long term forcast by the end of New Years.

[Lucas]

Am here, am ready, let's do this. See ya in a bit.

[stuart360]

14 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Come one guys, don't leave. This forum is so much fun and you are one of the reasons why (it's gonna do 2B anyway)

No one will be leaving, thats the point.😇

[KlapEastwood]

58 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The meltdowns when this does a realistic and respectable $1.5B worldwide instead of the frankly ridiculous $3B predictions are going to be glorious. In the digital consumption era this isn't going to have anywhere near the staying power the first film had. Wakanda Forever just proved to us that the demographic which goes back for rewatches is gone and just waiting for the digital release instead. And while the reviews are still good, I fear they aren't enough of an improvement over the first film to convince people to jump in.

Exactly.

[stuart360]

RT back up to 84% from 142 reviews.

 

The score seems to be flipping between 82-84% as a new batch of reviews come in.

I personaly doubt it drops under 80%.

[Cap]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Wakanda Forever just proved to us that the demographic which goes back for rewatches is gone and just waiting for the digital release instead.

I feel like this is a false flag example. 1. As much as people don’t want to admit it, we are STILL dealing with the PTSD of COVID + a nasty flu season. Makes sense why people aren’t going back multiple times. Moreover, that film was not fun. I saw it twice, cried both times. It doesn’t have a breezy “this fun, let’s watch again” vibe. It has a “rewatch in my room where I can ugly cry in peace” vibe. 
 

so I don’t think you can say that the demographic that re-watches movies is gone based off of that film.

 

 

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

Lets at least give the film a week in cinema's before starting the doom and gloom about its box office.

 

I'm still 100% certain that 2bil WW is locked, so much so that Admins you can perm my account if it doesnt hit 2bil worldwide.

There i said it, and i mean it.

That’s not really how it works. 😅
 

 

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I'll join you but in a different way.

 

if Avatar 2 doesn't make $2b WW mods can ban me up until October 2024,

That's until 2 months before Avatar 3.

And it's highly likely I might have just moved on by then

 

Is this more like… I’m going to cause meltdowns and get warning points, and when I do, book it to October 2024 or something else? Just trying to be prepared!!! 
 

 

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

***me as I push the ban button***
 

Technically, it’s not you pushing the button 

 

 

38 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

No one will be leaving, thats the point.😇

 

ALSO! 

 

with the inflated ticket prices, I highly doubt this is going to go below 150 million. And I also doubt it will go below 2 billion worldwide. So let’s not really start that train yet until at least 2023 people we got a long way to go and we’re not even through the week yet!!!!

 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Cap said:

Is this more like… I’m going to cause meltdowns and get warning points, and when I do, book it to October 2024 or something else? Just trying to be prepared!!!

No I don't intend to get banned through warning points and meltdowns lol, if that's what you mean.

[Mr Roark]

3 hours ago, Bruce said:

Who already watch the film here?

I came out like 2 hours ago.

 

I loved it. Doesn’t feel like the remake of the first one but as the first chapter of a much bigger saga. It feels more like The Fellowship of the Rings, but with a

more conclusive ending.

Having said that, it’s a lesser crowd pleaser compared to the first one. It’s more intimate and complex so now I don’t think it will make crazy numbers. Best case scenario for me now is $2.5B.

[GipJo]

Looks like the early showing from China are getting mixed reviews, especially on the screenplay front.

Some mixed points:

Slow start; no big climax or twist; weak villain; family theme is not that interesting compares to the human vs natives narrative; smaller fight and consequences in 3rd act; too many subplots in 2nd act and they went nowhere, the editing between different subplots is too direct and boring; cringe dialogues; too much a prequel (basically Dune).

Visual is staller but some aren't really that impressed because of lackluster screenplay.