Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[stuart360]

Not many sci-fi blockbuster are as big in their first outing though. I guess the original Star Wars is a good example, it dropped from 460M$ to 290M$ so 40% lost, that's big. But that was so many time ago, the cinema has nothing to do between then and now. Anyway, -40% on Avatar would put it at 456M$. I see it around 450M$ for now so that corresponds to that.

 

Star Wars didn't make $460mil in its initial run, not anywhere close to that. It made $220mil in 1977.

Empire grossed $209mil in its initial 1980 run.

[The Panda]

With how long a wait Avatar 2 is going to be, I'd suspect they will have struck the iron way to late. If it keeps on getting delayed like this, chances are no one will care. It certainly hasn't left a cultural mark as sizable as other phenomenons such as Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Titanic, etc.

I think making a sequel to it could be about as successful as a sequel to ET. If you remember, Jaws 2 did under half of what Jaws did as did Jurassic Park 2.

Sequels to phenomenons do not equal another phenomenon.

[The Futurist]

With how long a wait Avatar 2 is going to be, I'd suspect they will have struck the iron way to late. If it keeps on getting delayed like this, chances are no one will care. It certainly hasn't left a cultural mark as sizable as other phenomenons such as Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Titanic, etc.

I think making a sequel to it could be about as successful as a sequel to ET. If you remember, Jaws 2 did under half of what Jaws did as did Jurassic Park 2.

Sequels to phenomenons do not equal another phenomenon.

 

Your whole post is suggesting that Avatar was a "meh" movie that got lucky ( 3d novelty factors ! shiny colors !) and the whole Avatar didn't left a mark in pop culture yaddih yaddah, I read it approximatively 7586 times on this board :

 

Cameron does not get lucky and Avatar had outstanding WOM weither you like it or not. It was considered as a great to fantastic movie by GA. You don't have these kind of holds just because of the 3D novelty. But the 3d played a big part in Avatar s success, I won't deny it either, it made people curious.

 

Cameron is an amazing storyteller and director that always pushes all the boundaries he can with each movie and the Avatar sequels won't be any different.

 

With that being said, Avatar 2 is not sure to be a phenomenon but Cameron doesn't make his movies to be phenomenons, he tries each time to make great fucking movies period.

 

And for the sequels to look amazing, it is important to have 6 or 7 years of advancement in computer power to amp everything up visually.

[Mattrek]

Your whole post is suggesting that Avatar was a "meh" movie that got lucky ( 3d novelty factors ! shiny colors !) and the whole Avatar didn't left a mark in pop culture yaddih yaddah, I read it approximatively 7586 times on this board :

Cameron does not get lucky and Avatar had outstanding WOM weither you like it or not. It was considered as a great to fantastic movie by GA. You don't have these kind of holds just because of the 3D novelty. But the 3d played a big part in Avatar s success, I won't deny it either, it made people curious.

Cameron is an amazing storyteller and director that always pushes all the boundaries he can with each movie and the Avatar sequels won't be any different.

With that being said, Avatar 2 is not sure to be a phenomenon but Cameron doesn't make his movies to be phenomenons, he tries each time to make great fucking movies period.

And for the sequels to look amazing, it is important to have 6 or 7 years of advancement in computer power to amp everything up visually.

[keysersoze123]

3d ratio for the sequel will be way lower. Despite Cameron being the one who knows how to channelize it I doubt audience will go back to 3d. Plus I doubt they will be able to create the same event feeling as original. My prediction is 450M.

 

OS will grow in developing markets. But some markets will fall. I doubt spain/italy will come close to previous movie.

 

I think this will probably make around the same OS as the 1st one depending on china increasing to 400M or more. Rest of asia will grow but not that much. Japan will drop quite a bit as well as they are well over 3d fad. Latin America will grow quite a bit while developed markets will stay flat or drop depending on the markets.

[CloneWars]

Star Wars didn't make $460mil in its initial run, not anywhere close to that. It made $220mil in 1977.

Empire grossed $209mil in its initial 1980 run.

According to Mojo, SW made $307M initially. ESB made $209, so the drop was sizeable. Even if Mojo is off a little, SW did not just make $220M in its first release.

 

So, that was a 30% drop to a beloved film without the advent of Home Video yet and a 3 year wait vs. a 7 year wait. While Avatar is huge with huge HV sales, it could very well drop 50% initially. I would not be surprised if that happened. I'm still expecting at least $1.5B OS though.

[vc2002]

3d ratio for the sequel will be way lower. Despite Cameron being the one who knows how to channelize it I doubt audience will go back to 3d. Plus I doubt they will be able to create the same event feeling as original. My prediction is 450M.

 

OS will grow in developing markets. But some markets will fall. I doubt spain/italy will come close to previous movie.

 

I think this will probably make around the same OS as the 1st one depending on china increasing to 400M or more. Rest of asia will grow but not that much. Japan will drop quite a bit as well as they are well over 3d fad. Latin America will grow quite a bit while developed markets will stay flat or drop depending on the markets.

 

Gravity suggests that a high 3D ratio is still possible that if you slam the audience with enough "you must watch this in f*cking 3D" in your marketing.

[Jessie]

According to Mojo, SW made $307M initially. ESB made $209, so the drop was sizeable. Even if Mojo is off a little, SW did not just make $220M in its first release.

 

So, that was a 30% drop to a beloved film without the advent of Home Video yet and a 3 year wait vs. a 7 year wait. While Avatar is huge with huge HV sales, it could very well drop 50% initially. I would not be surprised if that happened. I'm still expecting at least $1.5B OS though.

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars#tab=box-office

 

It made far less than 307m in its initial run, there was more than one re-release

[Rudolf]

Gravity suggests that a high 3D ratio is still possible that if you slam the audience with enough "you must watch this in f*cking 3D" in your marketing.

Has not Interstellar scored a new record for IMAX gross percentage?

If AVATAR2 becomes an event film, even Americans will open their wallets to buy premium seats.

[Jessie]

this film is a typical example of internet geeks not knowing much about the GA. People still talk about Avatar but we all spend too much time on the internet talking about silly comic book movies to even realise. This is opening to at least 150m and will finish with over 500m beating everything in its year (if 2016 is it's release date.)

[Rudolf]

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars#tab=box-office

 

It made far less than 307m in its initial run, there was more than one re-release

I have an old Variety-based statistic, where it says Star Wars made $193.5m in rentals and Empire Strikes Back made $141.6m. This statistic is from the 1980s, so it probably doesn't include a lot of reruns.

[keysersoze123]

Gravity suggests that a high 3D ratio is still possible that if you slam the audience with enough "you must watch this in f*cking 3D" in your marketing.

 

Possible. But that happens more in the case of original movie than a sequel. I am not certain Avatar sequel will be able to make it something new. Plus Cameron is taking way too much time to release the sequel. This would have been 2x bigger had he released in 2012. 7 years time(I am not even sure this will release by that time) is too long and original wont hold up that well after that long. So I dont see this one becoming the event that the 1st movie became post release. But I could be wrong.

[CloneWars]

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars#tab=box-office

 

It made far less than 307m in its initial run, there was more than one re-release

It's hard to read that. It looks like there are gaps and missing data in the spread sheet as well.

[Neo]

With how long a wait Avatar 2 is going to be, I'd suspect they will have struck the iron way to late. If it keeps on getting delayed like this, chances are no one will care. It certainly hasn't left a cultural mark as sizable as other phenomenons such as Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Titanic, etc.

I think making a sequel to it could be about as successful as a sequel to ET. If you remember, Jaws 2 did under half of what Jaws did as did Jurassic Park 2.

Sequels to phenomenons do not equal another phenomenon.

JP2 didn't make half of what JP1 did.

[stuart360]

According to Mojo, SW made $307M initially. ESB made $209, so the drop was sizeable. Even if Mojo is off a little, SW did not just make $220M in its first release.

 

So, that was a 30% drop to a beloved film without the advent of Home Video yet and a 3 year wait vs. a 7 year wait. While Avatar is huge with huge HV sales, it could very well drop 50% initially. I would not be surprised if that happened. I'm still expecting at least $1.5B OS though.

 

It was actually $323mil but that was with reissues in 78,79,81 and 82. Its FIRST run was $220mil -

 

Star Wars remains one of the most financially successful films of all time. The film earned $1,554,475 through its opening weekend ($6.05 million in today's terms), building up to $7 million weekends as it entered wide release ($27.2 million in today's terms).^[3]It replaced Jaws as the highest-earning film in North America just six months into release,^[109] eventually earning over $220 million during its initial theatrical run.^[110]Star Wars entered international release towards the end of the year, and in 1978 added the worldwide record to its domestic one,^[111] earning $410 million in total.^[112]Reissues in 1978, 1979, 1981, and 1982 brought its cumulative gross in Canada and the U.S. to $323 million,^[113] and extended its global earnings to $530 million.^[114] The film remained the highest-grossing film of all time until E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial broke that record in 1983.

 

Edited December 3, 2014 by stuart360

[stuart360]

Your whole post is suggesting that Avatar was a "meh" movie that got lucky ( 3d novelty factors ! shiny colors !) and the whole Avatar didn't left a mark in pop culture yaddih yaddah, I read it approximatively 7586 times on this board :

 

Cameron does not get lucky and Avatar had outstanding WOM weither you like it or not. It was considered as a great to fantastic movie by GA. You don't have these kind of holds just because of the 3D novelty. But the 3d played a big part in Avatar s success, I won't deny it either, it made people curious.

 

Cameron is an amazing storyteller and director that always pushes all the boundaries he can with each movie and the Avatar sequels won't be any different.

 

With that being said, Avatar 2 is not sure to be a phenomenon but Cameron doesn't make his movies to be phenomenons, he tries each time to make great fucking movies period.

 

And for the sequels to look amazing, it is important to have 6 or 7 years of advancement in computer power to amp everything up visually.

 

The people who say that AVATAR only made what it did because it was the first film to make 3D popular are stupid. Do people really think if G.I.Joe or Transformers had of been the first film, they would of made $760mil and had 10x legs?, please.

[Clef Ment]

Worldwide total will be < $2B.

[Dementeleus]

I have an old Variety-based statistic, where it says Star Wars made $193.5m in rentals and Empire Strikes Back made $141.6m. This statistic is from the 1980s, so it probably doesn't include a lot of reruns.

"Rentals" means the studio cut. In terms if how we measure grosses, boost those numbers by 45% or so.

[Jessie]

Worldwide total will be < $2B.

Lol, I don't see that being the case at all. Even if it disappoints, it's still earning a killing overseas.

Either way when all said and done, Cameron will have the 3 highest grossing movies of all time.

[Kalel009Shel]

The people who say that AVATAR only made what it did because it was the first film to make 3D popular are stupid. Do people really think if G.I.Joe or Transformers had of been the first film, they would of made $760mil and had 10x legs?, please.

Stuart my friend, those that say those statements shouldnt even be in box office discussions or havent taken their medication lol.

Hah hah... We will bury Avengers 2 and SW7 combined I think at the boxoffice. Maybe my a number beyond my wildest dreams.