Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[kitik]

Disney just put one of their live-action fairy tale remakes onto the Christmas 2018 date.

 

Which is probably a sign that they're not going to put a Star Wars film on that date.

 

Which is probably a sign that they expect Avatar 2 to be released on Christmas 2018.

[baumer]

@IronJimbo....you're going to have to wait at least another 18 months to make an Avatar 2 club.

[The Futurist]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

@Kalel009Shel @IronJimbo Has there been anything released of what the plots of the future films could be about?

 

Can Humanity be saved ?

 

Does Humanity even deserve to be saved ?

[IronJimbo]

2 hours ago, Baumer said:

@IronJimbo....you're going to have to wait at least another 18 months to make an Avatar 2 club.

 

By that time my $3B club won't be as impressive, I would have to up it to $4b which is risky.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

By that time my $3B club won't be as impressive, I would have to up it to $4b which is risky.

 

How does 3B not become impressive when the date for the film to come out hasn't changed?

[kowhite]

3 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

How does 3B not become impressive when the date for the film to come out hasn't changed?

 

I started laughing at "$3b isn't impressive" and...

 

What?

[a2k]

TJB will be the 25th movie to do 1b+ ww and it's still impressive. Yes "only" 1b for Avatar 2 won't be impressive considering the first one did 2.7b. But 2b is impressive for Avatar 2 never mind that it comes 1,2,3 years from now. 3b is mind-blowingly amazeballs impressive even if comes in 2025.

[vc2002]

31 minutes ago, a2knet said:

TJB will be the 25th movie to do 1b+ ww and it's still impressive. Yes "only" 1b for Avatar 2 won't be impressive considering the first one did 2.7b. But 2b is impressive for Avatar 2 never mind that it comes 1,2,3 years from now. 3b is mind-blowingly amazeballs impressive even if comes in 2025.

 

A2

 

1B

 

 

2B 

 

 

3B 

 

 

 

4B    

 

 

[IronJimbo]

9 hours ago, Baumer said:

 

How does 3B not become impressive when the date for the film to come out hasn't changed?

 

Once the first trailer/preview hits, it will add atleast 500million to the value of estimates.

 

I guess that isn't 6 months before actually, my point is the hype will be much bigger 6 months before and the average estimate will be higher. My 3 billion club won't be as impressive when the average estimation is closer to the original Avatar, rather than closer to The Force Awakens as it is now.

Edited April 27, 2016 by IronJimbo

[baumer]

I don't think Avatar will touch TFA in North America but I'm sure that most people have it doing close to 2B WW, if not more.

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, Baumer said:

I don't think Avatar will touch TFA in North America but I'm sure that most people have it doing close to 2B WW, if not more.

 

Sorry,

 

"is closer to the original Avatar, rather than closer to The Force Awakens as it is now. "

 

This really made no sense, I meant world wide not North America.

 

Right now people seem to be estimating something close to TFA's $2.05B WW, but when the trailer hits they will be closer to Avatar's $2.8B WW.

[baumer]

Well, I think a fall from the first is inevitable.  Domestically I wouldn't be surprised to see this drop to about 500 mill.  China will probably do 400 million.  That's 900 million right there.  So to pass 2 billion WW seems logical.  We have a lot of time to wait but as of right now, my early early prediction is an OW of 120 million and a finish of 500.  WW I'd say  2.2 billion.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

Well, I think a fall from the first is inevitable.  Domestically I wouldn't be surprised to see this drop to about 500 mill.  China will probably do 400 million.  That's 900 million right there.  So to pass 2 billion WW seems logical.  We have a lot of time to wait but as of right now, my early early prediction is an OW of 120 million and a finish of 500.  WW I'd say  2.2 billion.

 

I wouldn't have been surprised if it dropped to ~500m had the gap between the films and hence between the ticket prices been smaller. But this one will have 9 years of inflation over Avatar.  By 2018 end, ~500m would be 55-60% of the 760m worth of 2009 admissions. imo 550m+ is safe.

[IronJimbo]

56 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Well, I think a fall from the first is inevitable.  Domestically I wouldn't be surprised to see this drop to about 500 mill.  China will probably do 400 million.  That's 900 million right there.  So to pass 2 billion WW seems logical.  We have a lot of time to wait but as of right now, my early early prediction is an OW of 120 million and a finish of 500.  WW I'd say  2.2 billion.

 

While I don't think Avatar will make $920m in North America like Star Wars, $500m is a low blow. If it doesnt reach $600m... well damn.

 

4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$652,270,625	2015
5	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$623,357,910	2012
6	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	2008^

 

Every foreign country needs to hold the same as Avatar for it to beat it by the sequel.

All we need is Domestic to make to make up for a reduced North American intake, if it's lower than North America's 720m that is.

 

I'm certain that Avatar 2's Domestic plus North America will beat Avatar's Domestic plus North America.

 

Also worth noting that in 2018 China is now domestic, we should honestly start measuring box office in yuan.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

I think WW-wise....Avatar 2 is obviously gonna be huge and it will easily hit over $1B WW? And since now...it has gotten easier for the Zeitgeist-blockbusters to hit $1B WW, thanks to the country, which made the $1B-club possibility higher.....CHINA.

 

Soon we will have a "Top 30 highest grossing films WW".....consisting nothing but billionares.

 

$2B WW seems a bit harder.

[langer]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

All we need is Domestic to make to make up for a reduced North American intake, if it's lower than North America's 720m that is.

 

I'm certain that Avatar 2's Domestic plus North America will beat Avatar's Domestic plus North America.

 

 

This is really confusing...  DOM = US + Canada.  North America = DOM + Mexico. 

 

I don't understand why you say DOM + North America. 

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, langer said:

 

This is really confusing...  DOM = US + Canada.  North America = DOM + Mexico. 

 

I don't understand why you say DOM + North America. 

 

I explained in the post but Domestic is now China. We're talking about December 2018 so Chinese cinema is the domestic by then, everything else is foreign.

 

I thought NA was US+Canada.

Edited April 27, 2016 by IronJimbo

[langer]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I explained in the post but Domestic is now China. We're talking about December 2018 so Chinese cinema is the domestic by then, everything else is foreign.

 

I thought NA was US+Canada.

 

China is China.  DOM is US + Canada.  NA is Mexico, USA & Canada.  Once the yuan becomes the international "safe" currency, we can start counting BO in yuan.  Unless I didn't the memo where Domestic is now China (or will be...W/E).   Until then, stick to the current way of analyzing BO. 

[Dementeleus]

15 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

I explained in the post but Domestic is now China. We're talking about December 2018 so Chinese cinema is the domestic by then, everything else is foreign.

 

I thought NA was US+Canada.

 

But when you start to redefine terms, you're just gonna confuse everyone. People don't use the term "domestic" because movies usually make the most in North America, they use it because it's a domestic production -- the studio(s) producing it are American.

[johnboy3434]

Yeah, no amount of economic revolution will make China the domestic market by 2018.