Official Weekend Estimates: Maleficent - 70M, X-Men - 32.6M, A Million Ways - 17.1M, Godzilla - 12.2M

[Heretic]

May has been so unbelievably meh. All blockbusters in the $200-230m range.

[Noctis]

Awful beyond belief for Godzilla.

[dxmatrixdt]

worked out some #'s!

 

Maleficent opens with 68.3.  A 25.0 opening day with 4.2 from Thursday.  The real Friday number is 20.8.  Audiences have a lukewarm response as alot of teenagers and adults saw this Friday, but the kids and families will still be in full force to catch this Saturday.  A great 30% increase for the hyped Jole feature gives the Saturday # at 26.39.  Since Sunday shall be big too, a 32% drop could happen.  A 17.94 Sunday happen giving Maleficent an impressive PSA at almost $17,500.  Without the previews, the PSA would be at 16,236.  I am guessing the second weekend will have a PSA at $8300.  Spider-man had a PSA of 8210 in its second weekend, X-men had 8000, and Godzilla had 7831. Therefore i predict Maleficent will fall 52 percent and be at 120.91 after week 2 and going on to gross 180-190.

 

X-Men took a hit.  A Friday per screen average of 2350 it has.  In its second Friday, Spider-man had 2318 and Godzilla did 2227.  Spidey had quite a Saturday jump, and i do not think X-Men will reach that height, but it should hit 8000 for the week, a tad under spidey.  In Spideys third weekend, it averaged 4215, an under 50% drop against Godzilla.  Look for X-Men to match that.  $4250 per location at 3721 locations will give it  52% drop to 15.81, a total of 188.49 and a total of 220-225M.

 

Million Ways to Die in the West will enjoy at least moderate success.  At least it is pacing a little bit above The Internship showing that the marketplace still has some strength if you want to compare with last year.  The theater count of 3158 is lower than usual so a average of $5702 gives it a weekend of 18.01.  I expect the Saturday # to barely inch up from the REAL friday #.  Why?  I think there may be a little life to this movie, and alot of the target audience does exist in the middle of this country.  Next weekend, maybe it drops 53 percent to 8.45 and a total of 33.46.  There is no competition keeping the drop at half.  Look for a total of 45-55.

 

Million Dollar Arm has safely brought in some cash.  It will average $1614 per location, a little under last weekend.  Remember, this lost alot of theaters this weekend.  Next weekend, if it averages $1250 with another big theater loss, it will drop 52% to 1.79 million and a new total of 31.21.  With a budget of 25 million, this should finish at 35 million and pay off its advertising budget with the theatrical run and find a small profit on home video. 

 

Godzilla has its third Friday at a PSA of $914.  Spideys was $1140.  Compared to the Friday before, the PSA drop was a bad 59%.  A Saturday increase of about 45%, a Sunday drop of 35% is respectable, and fudge the PSA up a tad and it gets $3151.  This is nearly a quarter off from Spiderman and my projection of X-men.  Perhaps X-men will do in between Godzilla and Spider with a 3rd weekend PSA of 3750?  Anyways, I just do not see this making much more with the straight cometition from all ends.  Giving it a 4th weekend PSA of 1700 would equate to a 42 percent loss from locations when Eot and Fault in Our Stars come out.  Add in a gooz size theater loss of 701 locations gives it 2800 locations.  (2800 locations)(1700/location) = 4.76s, or another drop of 57%.  And a total of 183,54.  Look for it to have its 4th weekend at 2000 locations and a better average of 1400.  A lighter drop of 41% to 2.8 million and a total of 189.05 shows 200M is reachable.  Or just think it will be above 188 after next weekend.  The weekend before Transformers comes out, another 1.5 million puts it at a total of 192.  Most likely this will be at 196,588,555 and get a push on labor day weekend getting it at 198 until dollar theaters finally fudge it to 200.  That is my best case scenario.  It is a giant lizard film so legs are tough.  Good thing they kept the budget at 160.  Look for the sequel to improve in many ways.

 

Blended did welll.  An openeng PSA of 4,000 and dropping to 2169 shows Sandler is not done.  The studio may have taken a hit, but not Sandler.  As it sheds 800 screens next weekend, look for the average to be at 1550 and Blended to fall another 45%.  It will do 4.27 that weekend with a grand total of 35,54.  A dollar theater run consisting of weekends of $1,000PSA may prolong its total to 44.5 million.  Not bad after its 4 million opening day.

 

Neighbors held.  Last weekend it averaged $4,295 with a bigger Sunday making a deflated average of 4k more likely to relate with.  It is in line to average $2471 this weekend and it also did not loose too many screens.  If it looses twice as many screens next weekend as it did from this weekend, and looses 1/4 of its business and averages 1825, it will drop 40% to 4..38 and hit a total of 135.48.  Something above 135 should be in line the week before 22 Jump Street.  With weekdays, it will be past 137 before Jump Street, and should finish with 145-155.

 

Last is Spider-man.  With the friday estrimate it has, a 60% Saturday increase and a 35% Sunday decrease will get it at 4.01 for the weeekdn.  I am glad it might clear 4.  That gives a new total of 192.97.  Its PSA is a bit under last week, so it held some business.  $1864.  It should loose a minimum of 800 locations next weekdn putting it at 1352 locations.  $1450 of business gives it a minumum of 1.96 for that weekend and a 51% drop.  If it looses more theaters, its PSA will bump up a little. look for a PSA above 1k for a while now.  196.22 total the weekend before HTTYD2.  maybe 198 after that weekend hedging it to 200M before 4th of July.  Dollar theaters should get this thing at 203.5

[dxmatrixdt]

next weekend

Edge of Tomorrow - (3520 location)($11550/location) = $40,660,000

Fault in our Stars - (3203 location)($12550/location) = $40,200,000

Maleficent - (-52%) 32.80 - 120.91

[Deathlife]

Looks like all three of TASM2, Godzilla, and DOFP will all come in with worse legs than CATWS.

Yeah.Maybe, just maybe, the general audiences didn't enjoy these movies very much except Cap 2.I know that might not be a popular sentiment but it's actually a very plausible reason for these terrible drops.

[CoolioD1]

at least x-men's gonna be the biggest may release, I guess.

[Ent]

X-Men just has a very big devoted fan base that drives up the OW. Add in a holiday opening and the weekend is highly inflated. I wasn't expecting a drop closer to 65%, more to 60%; but I'm not exactly surprised either.We'll see how it'll recover next week. I don't think it will fall hard again ala Godzilla.

 

It's a very fancentric franchise that hasn't succeeded into branching significantly towards the general audience to increase its fanbase.  

 

The general audience doesn't care about the X men.  Wolverine, the front runner of the franchise has never pulled numbers like Superman, SpiderMan, Batman, CA, Iron Man and Thor. 

 

It's like STID, HP, Twilight...a devoted fanbase that come en masse early on and the general audience that isn't on par and doesn't sustain the longevity of its run.  

 

It's always the general audience that comes later on that gives the quality of the legs.  If it's tinier, if  they are few of them outside the core fans that support the movie, then it will drop hard, faster before the theater counts even start dropping.

 

It's really a case of inability for the Xmen franchise to popularize it, to popularize its lead so that people, outside of the core fans, care and root for him.  It's one of the most contained franchise along side of Star Treck.

[dxmatrixdt]

In a different, worst case, what-if scenario, who would have thought May ends like this?

 

1, X-Men 220

2. Maleficent 205

3. Spider-man 201

4. Godzilla 195

5. Neighbors 150

Million Ways to Die in the West - 45

Blended - 40

 

I guess Captain does deserve to be in the top 5 of the year

[zackzack]

May has been so unbelievably meh. All blockbusters in the $200-230m range.

 

You are right. I tried to challenge but you are sadly, unfortunately right. 

Although RDJ & Iron Man are just too formidable a combination for

any blockbuster to overcome.

 

Yeah.Maybe, just maybe, the general audiences didn't enjoy these movies very much except Cap 2.I know that might not be a popular sentiment but it's actually a very plausible reason for these terrible drops.

 

Godzilla is rather dull & TASM2 is a lively popcorn entertainment that brings nothing new to the table.

Electro is not a great villain. The Rhino is almost a false advertisement.

 

XDOFP is OK, but looks like XMFC with better FX. Again too many new characters just pop out

& sprawling plot continuity that gets GA confused. Anyway who cares, it will clean up OS like

Spidey. And it is wrong not to bring Quicksilver to the weak finale

Edited May 31, 2014 by zackzack

[zackzack]

In a different, worst case, what-if scenario, who would have thought May ends like this?

 

1, X-Men 220

2. Maleficent 205

3. Spider-man 201

4. Godzilla 195

5. Neighbors 150

Million Ways to Die in the West - 45

Blended - 40

 

I guess Captain does deserve to be in the top 5 of the year

 

Godzilla     

I can't believe Warner didn't at least tighten or simplify the script.

Edited May 31, 2014 by zackzack

[Heretic]

worked out some #'s! Maleficent opens with 68.3.  A 25.0 opening day with 4.2 from Thursday.  The real Friday number is 20.8.  Audiences have a lukewarm response as alot of teenagers and adults saw this Friday, but the kids and families will still be in full force to catch this Saturday.  A great 30% increase for the hyped Jole feature gives the Saturday # at 26.39.  Since Sunday shall be big too, a 32% drop could happen.  A 17.94 Sunday happen giving Maleficent an impressive PSA at almost $17,500.  Without the previews, the PSA would be at 16,236.  I am guessing the second weekend will have a PSA at $8300.  Spider-man had a PSA of 8210 in its second weekend, X-men had 8000, and Godzilla had 7831. Therefore i predict Maleficent will fall 52 percent and be at 120.91 after week 2 and going on to gross 180-190. X-Men took a hit.  A Friday per screen average of 2350 it has.  In its second Friday, Spider-man had 2318 and Godzilla did 2227.  Spidey had quite a Saturday jump, and i do not think X-Men will reach that height, but it should hit 8000 for the week, a tad under spidey.  In Spideys third weekend, it averaged 4215, an under 50% drop against Godzilla.  Look for X-Men to match that.  $4250 per location at 3721 locations will give it  52% drop to 15.81, a total of 188.49 and a total of 220-225M. Million Ways to Die in the West will enjoy at least moderate success.  At least it is pacing a little bit above The Internship showing that the marketplace still has some strength if you want to compare with last year.  The theater count of 3158 is lower than usual so a average of $5702 gives it a weekend of 18.01.  I expect the Saturday # to barely inch up from the REAL friday #.  Why?  I think there may be a little life to this movie, and alot of the target audience does exist in the middle of this country.  Next weekend, maybe it drops 53 percent to 8.45 and a total of 33.46.  There is no competition keeping the drop at half.  Look for a total of 45-55. Million Dollar Arm has safely brought in some cash.  It will average $1614 per location, a little under last weekend.  Remember, this lost alot of theaters this weekend.  Next weekend, if it averages $1250 with another big theater loss, it will drop 52% to 1.79 million and a new total of 31.21.  With a budget of 25 million, this should finish at 35 million and pay off its advertising budget with the theatrical run and find a small profit on home video. Godzilla has its third Friday at a PSA of $914.  Spideys was $1140.  Compared to the Friday before, the PSA drop was a bad 59%.  A Saturday increase of about 45%, a Sunday drop of 35% is respectable, and fudge the PSA up a tad and it gets $3151.  This is nearly a quarter off from Spiderman and my projection of X-men.  Perhaps X-men will do in between Godzilla and Spider with a 3rd weekend PSA of 3750?  Anyways, I just do not see this making much more with the straight cometition from all ends.  Giving it a 4th weekend PSA of 1700 would equate to a 42 percent loss from locations when Eot and Fault in Our Stars come out.  Add in a gooz size theater loss of 701 locations gives it 2800 locations.  (2800 locations)(1700/location) = 4.76s, or another drop of 57%.  And a total of 183,54.  Look for it to have its 4th weekend at 2000 locations and a better average of 1400.  A lighter drop of 41% to 2.8 million and a total of 189.05 shows 200M is reachable.  Or just think it will be above 188 after next weekend.  The weekend before Transformers comes out, another 1.5 million puts it at a total of 192.  Most likely this will be at 196,588,555 and get a push on labor day weekend getting it at 198 until dollar theaters finally fudge it to 200.  That is my best case scenario.  It is a giant lizard film so legs are tough.  Good thing they kept the budget at 160.  Look for the sequel to improve in many ways. Blended did welll.  An openeng PSA of 4,000 and dropping to 2169 shows Sandler is not done.  The studio may have taken a hit, but not Sandler.  As it sheds 800 screens next weekend, look for the average to be at 1550 and Blended to fall another 45%.  It will do 4.27 that weekend with a grand total of 35,54.  A dollar theater run consisting of weekends of $1,000PSA may prolong its total to 44.5 million.  Not bad after its 4 million opening day. Neighbors held.  Last weekend it averaged $4,295 with a bigger Sunday making a deflated average of 4k more likely to relate with.  It is in line to average $2471 this weekend and it also did not loose too many screens.  If it looses twice as many screens next weekend as it did from this weekend, and looses 1/4 of its business and averages 1825, it will drop 40% to 4..38 and hit a total of 135.48.  Something above 135 should be in line the week before 22 Jump Street.  With weekdays, it will be past 137 before Jump Street, and should finish with 145-155. Last is Spider-man.  With the friday estrimate it has, a 60% Saturday increase and a 35% Sunday decrease will get it at 4.01 for the weeekdn.  I am glad it might clear 4.  That gives a new total of 192.97.  Its PSA is a bit under last week, so it held some business.  $1864.  It should loose a minimum of 800 locations next weekdn putting it at 1352 locations.  $1450 of business gives it a minumum of 1.96 for that weekend and a 51% drop.  If it looses more theaters, its PSA will bump up a little. look for a PSA above 1k for a while now.  196.22 total the weekend before HTTYD2.  maybe 198 after that weekend hedging it to 200M before 4th of July.  Dollar theaters should get this thing at 203.5

Dayyyyym.

[zackzack]

My worst nightmare:

 

TF4            $295M

Dragon 2   $280M

Apes 2       $240M

DOFP         $220M

TASM2       $205M

Godzilla      $200M

 

Summer 2014 may be cursed.

Edited May 31, 2014 by zackzack

[zackzack]

Looks like all three of TASM2, Godzilla, and DOFP will all come in with worse legs than CATWS.

 

CAP2 may discover a new "early May": Early April 

[kitik]

Yeah it looks like it won't quite make 9.6, probably around 9.3, Godz should go up slightly around 3.3

 

 

Good grief. We all know X-Men has bad legs, but I still get sad when they show up.

[Sam]

Something will break out. There's gotta be at least one.

[Hatebox]

I'm liking this utterly mediocre summer so far. Something needs to jolt Hollywood.

[Sam]

It's a very fancentric franchise that hasn't succeeded into branching significantly towards the general audience to increase its fanbase. The general audience doesn't care about the X men.  Wolverine, the front runner of the franchise has never pulled numbers like Superman, SpiderMan, Batman, CA, Iron Man and Thor. It's like STID, HP, Twilight...a devoted fanbase that come en masse early on and the general audience that isn't on par and doesn't sustain the longevity of its run. It's always the general audience that comes later on that gives the quality of the legs.  If it's tinier, if  they are few of them outside the core fans that support the movie, then it will drop hard, faster before the theater counts even start dropping. It's really a case of inability for the Xmen franchise to popularize it, to popularize its lead so that people, outside of the core fans, care and root for him.  It's one of the most contained franchise along side of Star Treck.

I think Wolverine is just overused and overexposed. That will be the case with MCU leads at some point if Marvel pushing it. The thing about X-movies is that aside from fans, there are hardly people who care for the gazillion mutants that popped up, heck, I don't care for more than half of them (and it's not like the movies gave me reasons to either)

[Ezen Baklattan]

I think it's time to let it go. It's just boring and unoriginal at this point.

 

Please refrain from replying with DeHaan head.

Careful, you almost tempted the Frozenites.

[bapi]

Bad movies = bad drops (Godzilla, Spidey) and even DOFP is not so good.

[dxmatrixdt]

what does May mean to June?

June of last year:

1. Man of Steel - 291

2. Monsters U - 268

3. WWZ - 202

4. The Heat - 160

5. This is the End - 101

6. White house Down - 73

7. The Purge - 64

8. The Internship - 45

Bling Ring 6

 

This year: Edge of Tomorrow, Fault in our Stars, 22 Jump Street, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Think Like a Man Too, Jersey Boys, The Rover, Transformers

1. Transformers - 300

2. HTTYD2 - 290

3. 22 Jump Street - 160

4. Edge of Tomorrow - 150

5. Fault in Our Stars - 100

6. Think Like A Man Too - 100

Jersey Boys - 50

The Rover - 35