The Great Box Office Recession? -- Discussing the Up & Down Trends of the Box Office Market

[ddddeeee]

As far as I'm concerned THG breaking out is the most certain thing outside of TDKR and TH. It's a major tearjerker and will really get people talking, cannot wait.

[Shawn Robbins]

As far as I'm concerned THG breaking out is the most certain thing outside of TDKR and TH. It's a major tearjerker and will really get people talking, cannot wait.

Have you seen an early screening?

[cookie]

Have you seen an early screening?

I think he goes by the book.

[CJohn]

Probably he read the book. Going by the book, I am going to cry like a baby in one particular scene. I hope they do that in the right way.

Edited December 27, 2011 by CJohn

[Captain Craig]

As far as I'm concerned THG breaking out is the most certain thing outside of TDKR and TH. It's a major tearjerker and will really get people talking, cannot wait.

The Avengers is a sure thing.

[John Marston]

The Hunger Games is far from a guaranteed break out. Recently we just had the Girl With the Dragon Tattoo which was extremely hyped on the internet but is barely causing much movement at the BO. Also, if the box office slump continues non fans of the book might not be as willing to check it out as they would in a better box office year

[ddddeeee]

So now we're comparing it to TGWTDT? Good lord, first Watchmen now this. People are straying so far from the obvious comparison which is right in everyone's faces...

[iceroll]

What Twilight? That had more book sales.

[Mojoguy]

What Twilight? That had more book sales.

Ddddeeee was obviously comparing it to Harry Potter.

[iceroll]

That had even more book sales

[BK007]

One of the worst movies I've seen this year. And yep, I had faith the talent involved would turn it into something pretty cool. Predicted at the time it would do at least twice as much as it ended up doing. My expectations didn't start to decline until early summer; I had $188m for it at the start of Baumer's Summer Game.

Same here, granted I'd never read the graphic novel, but seriously, it had a DTV plot. The trailer also sucked and they never turned it around.

I still can't believe how boring it turned out.

It was a chore to sit through. Nothing memorable at all. You'd think an upside down ship the size of the Titanic would be setting enough.

Haywire and The Grey do look decent, but I don't think I'll be able to spare money for "decent" anymore.

This is what I'm talking about. With the number of movies we watch greater than most people, you come to realize that, you don't have all that much $ or time or both to go on seeing decent. I still am hooked to physical media and want to support the industry and buy flicks I've liked but looking at the 54 movies I've already seen this year, I start to wonder why I give chances to "decent" flicks. Sure, all our tastes are different, but the number of movies with replay value are tiny and those that warrant at least one viewing not many more. I'm a sucker for flicks like the Adjustment Bureau and In Time and may still have ended up checking them out but why engage in films that you kind of know you won't ever feel the need to see again apart from right then.

April looks weak this year. March is where all the action is.

March doesn't look that spectacular either. A little step up from Jan/Feb but lots of unproven flicks. Only the Lorax looks any good. John Carter, Hunger Games and the Pirates! I might end up checking out only if they have good reviews. These would be the first movies, which might fit the whole "might be an entertaining blockbuster hiding in there" criteria I used to convince myself to watch Cowboys & Aliens.

There aren't enough trailers of April movies but some which have potential to be badass or good: Cold Light of Day, Bullet to the Head, Movie 43, Lockout, Friends at the End of the World, Wettest Country and Five Year Engagement. All are pretty understated as movies not your usual fare that the average moviegoer would checkout. All the action flicks sound much more inspired than the first 3 months and could be that niche Shoot 'Em Up/Lucky Number Slevin type underrated movie that does poorly but gains a cult audience.

It's all about March and THG. If I had ovaries they would be exploding in anticipation of that.

Yeah, the Hunger Games trailer reeks of low production value. Looks DTV to me. The plot of course still sounds great but the movie itself looks like crap. I'd say THG fanboys on here are getting to be some of the most annoying; so convinced their movie is good and will breakout. Yeah, it may be more popular than crap like IANF but it looks exactly the same in terms of what to expect from it at the moment. Plus, it is nowhere near Twilight which they keep thinking and seemingly sometimes lord over that franchise. I know it's a terrible franchise but THG is unproven and seems to have equal production values.

I'm not sure but are you also the poster who reads scripts before watching the movie? I guess it is an educational choice but, really? The magic is not knowing what is unfolding upon screen to me. It's a peeve of mine though when a poster comes in and says "Script was good- you'll love it/it has more action/deeper/romantic/shallow etc. than you think" It's not a spoiler per se, but then, it really is. Sometimes not saying something is as bad as saying it as one way or the other it confirms some fact. Of course I don't really remember which poster and which movies were talked about but all the same it's not exactly considerate.

And that's why I normally keep myself out of movie threads and casting because knowing the villain and plot points and etc. especially in spoiler-happy fanboy forums is just meh. I'm not going to spoil anything for anyone, but if anyone cared to read the "most shocking endings" thread, which I don't, before watching the respective movies it kind of defeats the purpose of the thread and ending. I guess you could say you're watching it without the gimmick and see if it works but the fact you know something already makes you biased.

Yeah, I don't know about the other 2, but kudos to Sony where it's due- the trailer and marketing for Battle: Los Angeles made it look an epic blockbuster, Independence Day Pt II. It turned out to be an at time laughably bad, uneventful and boring 2 hour advertisement for the USMC. What a joke!

And their tricks worked- the movie grossed 3x its $70m production budget worldwide ensuring a decent profit in the long run.

I can't remember what I thought about B:LA trailer but I-oh no, I do. I thought it was pretty cool but had a huge potential to be generic and forgettable. I wouldn't say it was. Certainly not very good but not that bad or boring. Still, this and IANF more movies I should have skipped.

[AniNate]

March doesn't look that spectacular either. A little step up from Jan/Feb but lots of unproven flicks. Only the Lorax looks any good. John Carter, Hunger Games and the Pirates! I might end up checking out only if they have good reviews. These would be the first movies, which might fit the whole "might be an entertaining blockbuster hiding in there" criteria I used to convince myself to watch Cowboys & Aliens.There aren't enough trailers of April movies but some which have potential to be badass or good: Cold Light of Day, Bullet to the Head, Movie 43, Lockout, Friends at the End of the World, Wettest Country and Five Year Engagement. All are pretty understated as movies not your usual fare that the average moviegoer would checkout. All the action flicks sound much more inspired than the first 3 months and could be that niche Shoot 'Em Up/Lucky Number Slevin type underrated movie that does poorly but gains a cult audience.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here. Every film you mentioned in either month is "unproven" and I don't see what makes April so much more promising than March. The four March movies you mentioned all have talented, proven filmmakers behind them so the chances of them being good are all pretty high compared to the April flicks.And IMO, Movie 43 sounds like a huge mess. Edited December 27, 2011 by tribefan695

[AniNate]

Let me just say what I do think of those April films:Cold Light of Day - Could be ok, but doesn't sound interesting enough for me to spend money on it i.e. a "decent" movieBullet to the Head - Sounds like a typical mindless Stallone actioner. Not my thingMovie 43 - Sounds like something the filmmakers thought up after a night of binge drinking. I predict an incoherent mess of a movie that thinks it's funnier than it really isLockout - Interesting premise, but I fear it'll give in to typical Besson ultraviolence. Wait and see on this oneSAFATEOTW - This has potential, but probably too indie to reach any theaters near here.Wettest Country - Again, sounds interesting, but I bet it only gets a limited release like The RoadFive-Year Engagement - Apatow movies aren't normally must-sees for me.Nothing in April looks like a "must-see" to me right now like John Carter does, which I've been anticipating ever since it was announced Andrew Stanton was directing.

Edited December 27, 2011 by tribefan695

[rockNrollaDIM]

I agree about script reading. I don't understand that... Takes the magic out of the movie. I'm sure it's interesting to read it afterwards, but before? Also for movies I'm really anticipating, sometimes following each development/piece of news ends up spoiling alot of things in the movie for me.

[Captain Craig]

Yeah, the Hunger Games trailer reeks of low production value. Looks DTV to me.

I can't say agree with your assessment that it looks to have low production values but to keep your thought in mind many, many, many people felt the same way about the first Twilight. That it looked like a Lifetime TV movie of the week and that turned out alright.

Also in keeping with the sentiment of the thread and "decent flicks" I long ago decided to see 95% or greater of movies that screamed high production values. Movies that say "I really should be seen on the big screen in Dolby Surround etc".

I wanted to see Rum Diary, still will, but it's a DVD movie. Due to the copycat nature of the script I waited on Hangover II. I will allow a few guilty pleasures but neither of those two warranted it this year.

[Kvikk Lunsj]

movies I will see next yearJanuary(none)February(none)MarchJohn Carter (Maybe)The Hunger GamesAprilAmerican Pie 4MayThe AvengersDark ShadowsThe Dictator (maybe)JuneRock of Ages (maybe)Snow White and the Huntsmen (maybe)PrometheusBraveJulyThe Amazing Spider-Man (maybe)The Dark Knight RisesAugustif something has good reviewsSeptemberArgoOctoberFrankenweenieNovemberJames Bond: SkyfallGravityDecemberLes MiserablesWorld War ZombieThe HobbitLife of Pie (maybe)Django UnchainedNo release date yetLincolnThe Burial

[iceroll]

Movies I have interest in seeing in 2012:

Beauty and the Beast (3D) (BV) - 1/13

Dr. Seuss' The Lorax (Uni.) - 3/2

John Carter (BV) - 3/9

The Hunger Games (LGF) - 3/23

Wrath of the Titans (WB) - 3/30

Titanic (3D) (Par.) - 4/6

Chimpanzee (BV) - 4/20

The Avengers (2012) (BV) - 5/4

Battleship (Uni.) - 5/18

Snow White and the Huntsman (Uni.) - 6/1

Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (P/DW) - 6/8

Brave (BV) - 6/22

G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Par.) - 6/29

Ice Age: Continental Drift (in 3-D) (tentative title) (Fox) - 7/13

The Dark Knight Rises (WB) - 7/20

Finding Nemo (in 3D) (BV) - 9/14

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part Two) (Sum.) - 11/16

Rise of the Guardians (P/DW) - 11/21

Les Miserables (2012) (Uni.) - 12/7

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (WB) - 12/14

Django Unchained (Wein.) - 12/25

Next winter/fall is so barren and dull to me.

[Jawa]

Movies I will see next year:Some of the 2011 Oscar holdovers (Artist, TTSS, Descendants, etc)Phantom Menace 3DThe AvengersDark Shadows - if it gets good reviewsMen in Black 3 - if it gets good reviewsPrometheusBrave - if it gets good reviewsThe Amazing Spider-ManThe Dark Knight RisesSkyfallThe Hobbit: An Unexpected JourneyDjango UnchainedLincoln

[AniNate]

Movies I'm most interested in:Beauty and the Beast 3DArriettyJohn CarterThe Hunger GamesThe PiratesTItanic 3DThe AvengersMen in Black 3PrometheusBraveThe Amazing Spider-ManThe Dark Knight RisesWarm Bodies (director of 50/50 is behind it; could be good)ParaNormanArgoFinding Nemo 3DWreck-It RalphSkyfallGravityThe Silver Linings PlaybookLes MiserablesThe HobbitUntitled Kathryn BigelowDjango Unchained

Edited December 27, 2011 by tribefan695

[DAR]

Movies that are locks for me to seeThe AvengersThe Dark Knight RisesThe Hobbit.Movies that I will do my best to see but I can't make any guarantees that I will and it's likely I'll end up seein them at home anyway:John CarterThe Hunger GamesBraveThe Amazing Spider-ManRock of Ages.Movies that I will see at some point or not at allEverything else being released depends on my interest level.