THE Incredibles 2 | June 15, 2018 | NO SPOILERS!!!!

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, Royce said:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=theincredibles2.htm

 

Was this from weekend actuals or from today's numbers?

 

Is it hitting 1B today?

It’s from overseas we adjusted I guess. It could go up to 1B with don we actuals. 

[Morieris]

 

[ZeeSoh]

Incredibles 2 becomes

 

- The 36th movie to gross 1 billion or more

- 18th Disney movie to cross the mark

- 7th animated movie &

- 3rd Pixar movie to achieve this milestone

 

 

[Quigley]

According to my rough estimates, Incredibles 2 is about to become the highest-grossing Pixar film, when adjusting for inflation, ahead of Finding Nemo ($575M).

Edited July 31, 2018 by Quigley

[meriodejaneiro]

16 hours ago, Quigley said:

According to my rough estimates, Incredibles 2 is about to become the highest-grossing Pixar film, when adjusting for inflation, ahead of Finding Nemo ($575M).

I2 has been the top grossing Pixar movie for some time already

Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Incredibles 2	BV	$567,297,000	$574,028,649	6/15/18
2	Finding Nemo	BV	$522,248,400	$339,714,978	5/30/03
3	Finding Dory	BV	$520,585,500	$486,295,561	6/17/16

 

 

 

Or if you prefer it this other way

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Est. Tickets / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Incredibles 2	BV	61,197,100	4,410	19,476,300	4,410	6/15/18
2	Finding Nemo	BV	56,337,500	3,425	11,650,400	3,374	5/30/03
3	Finding Dory	BV	56,158,100	4,305	15,470,800	4,305	6/17/16

[kayumanggi]

Worldwide Numbers

 

1276.5 M FROZEN

1159.4 M MINIONS

1067.0 M TOY STORY III

1034.8 M DESPICABLE ME III

1028.6 M FINDING DORY

1023.8 M ZOOTOPIA

1000.4 M INCREDIBLES II

[meriodejaneiro]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

Worldwide Numbers

 

1276.5 M FROZEN

1159.4 M MINIONS

1067.0 M TOY STORY III

1034.8 M DESPICABLE ME III

1028.6 M FINDING DORY

1023.8 M ZOOTOPIA

1000.4 M INCREDIBLES II

#2 is totally achievable. Frozen's on the other hand ... I think I2 will land on 1.25B for #2 ww. 

[Quigley]

16 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I2 has been the top grossing Pixar movie for some time already

Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Incredibles 2	BV	$567,297,000	$574,028,649	6/15/18
2	Finding Nemo	BV	$522,248,400	$339,714,978	5/30/03
3	Finding Dory	BV	$520,585,500	$486,295,561	6/17/16

 

 

 

Or if you prefer it this other way

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Est. Tickets / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Incredibles 2	BV	61,197,100	4,410	19,476,300	4,410	6/15/18
2	Finding Nemo	BV	56,337,500	3,425	11,650,400	3,374	5/30/03
3	Finding Dory	BV	56,158,100	4,305	15,470,800	4,305	6/17/16

Ray Subers has said that thesed charts are inaccurate. My estimate for Nemo is $575M.

[meriodejaneiro]

2 hours ago, Quigley said:

Ray Subers has said that thesed charts are inaccurate. My estimate for Nemo is $575M.

just curious ... how do you calculate estimates?

I know boxofficemojo don't take into consideration how many 3d shows, 2d shows, imax shows ... they just take dom total and tickets average price for the year and make the division (what is inaccurate, but the most accurate box-office-mortals like us can get).

[meriodejaneiro]

Seems I2 opened in Japan good (2.3M on wednesday opening), but not as good as it could have gotten. From 60/70M initial estimates it's come down to a 40/50M Pixar standard estimates. Not bad either, but not following the international increasing trend I2 is seeing elsewhere. Remember TI made 600M+ ww, and I2 is probably make 1.2B ww, almost double. 

 

But this "poor" Japan run may kill any tiny chance I2 had to dethrone Frozen from #1 ww. 

[korrasami]

3 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Seems I2 opened in Japan good (2.3M on wednesday opening), but not as good as it could have gotten. From 60/70M initial estimates it's come down to a 40/50M Pixar standard estimates. Not bad either, but not following the international increasing trend I2 is seeing elsewhere. Remember TI made 600M+ ww, and I2 is probably make 1.2B ww, almost double. 

 

But this "poor" Japan run may kill any tiny chance I2 had to dethrone Frozen from #1 ww. 

Doesn't the BO in Japan tend to be unpredictable? Can I2 still break out or are all chances voided?

[Jessie]

22 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I2 has been the top grossing Pixar movie for some time already

Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Incredibles 2	BV	$567,297,000	$574,028,649	6/15/18
2	Finding Nemo	BV	$522,248,400	$339,714,978	5/30/03
3	Finding Dory	BV	$520,585,500	$486,295,561	6/17/16

 

 

 

Or if you prefer it this other way

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Est. Tickets / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Incredibles 2	BV	61,197,100	4,410	19,476,300	4,410	6/15/18
2	Finding Nemo	BV	56,337,500	3,425	11,650,400	3,374	5/30/03
3	Finding Dory	BV	56,158,100	4,305	15,470,800	4,305	6/17/16

Doesn't take 3d or Imax into account 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

50 minutes ago, korrasami said:

Doesn't the BO in Japan tend to be unpredictable? Can I2 still break out or are all chances voided?

Well, it’s only predictable if most of those blockbusters in Hollywood, underperform to an embarrasing degree or something like that.

 

I just hope the WOM for I2 is actually good in Japan.

[meriodejaneiro]

3 hours ago, korrasami said:

Doesn't the BO in Japan tend to be unpredictable? Can I2 still break out or are all chances voided?

The few i know about Japan bo is that movies tend to have long runs and big multipliers (unless it really sucks). What I said is what "Corpse" from WOKJ forum said. Initially said that 70M could be expectable ... but after the opening day he lowered his expectations to a Pixar standard level of 40/50M (which is pretty decent as well, but not the explosion I2 is having everywhere else compared to TI). 

 

So we'll see. Maybe I2 develops incredibly good legs powered by good wom and reaches that 70M.

[Quigley]

9 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

just curious ... how do you calculate estimates?

I know boxofficemojo don't take into consideration how many 3d shows, 2d shows, imax shows ... they just take dom total and tickets average price for the year and make the division (what is inaccurate, but the most accurate box-office-mortals like us can get).

Ray Subers had once written an article saying that TS3 sold fewer tickets than TS2. This means that TS3's $494M adjusted gross is less than TS2's $443M adjusted gross. Similarly, FN's $522M gross is probably more than 522*494/443 = $582M. So actually, I2 has to gross more than $582M to even have a chance. (I apologise, my $575M estimate was rough and not based on exact calculations)

 

IMO, if I2 reaches $600M, it's probably comparable to Nemo to some extent.

Edited August 2, 2018 by Quigley

[CoolK]

I2 still has around $30mn left in the tank...i see it finishing around 610mn

[meriodejaneiro]

4 hours ago, CoolK said:

I2 still has around $30mn left in the tank...i see it finishing around 610mn

With (even) better legs, Labour Day expansion (in September) ... could it challenge TLJ's 620M dom? It's currently 45M away from it, big challenge, i know but ... they are The Incredibles. 

[BadAtGender]

On 8/1/2018 at 11:54 PM, Quigley said:

Ray Subers has said that thesed charts are inaccurate. My estimate for Nemo is $575M.

It seems like that Nemo is only adjusting the original run, not the 3D re-release, which adjusts to about 48m, so even if you just add those together, it's 570m or so. Actual tickets is probably going to diverge somewhat more because original Nemo had no 3D or PLF, and I2 probably skews slightly older (because of the 14 year gap, rating difference, and the superhero theme.) Adjusted numbers are... fudgy, and to be taken with extreme grains of salt.

 

You know what else needs grains of salt? My weekly update of my box office projector.

 

In week 7, Incredibles 2 earned 12.5m, pushing the total past 578. This was a drop of about 37%, which isn't quite the stunner we saw last week, but is pretty solid. We can probably chalk up some of that fall to the fairly direct competition from Teen Titans Go to the Movies, which is also animated and about superheroes. This is pretty much the last competition it will face for a long time. Smallfoot is the next animated film, in late September, and Venom is the next superhero offering in early October. The family offerings between now and then include AXL. And nothing else.

 

37% is interesting, because it's just barely under the mark needed for 600m. Drops continuing like this would see I2 end up with about 599.5m. 36% has a final total around 600.5m. So, it's probably going to get over that mark, though it will probably need a late run bump or two to do it easily.

 

If, instead, it follows last week's trend of 25% drops (assuming the drop this week was due to TTGTTM more than anything else) would see it above 615m. This is really good. It's not, unfortunately, enough to edge it past Star Wars: The Last Jedi to get to 8th on the all time list. In order to do that it will need to hold slightly better, now, around 22-23%.

 

And it would need to be about 1% better (21-22%) in order to best The Avengers for 7th all time.

 

6th all time would mean getting ahead of Jurassic World's 652m, which would need drops better than 15%. We can pretty safely assume it isn't going to do that, since there's no past behavior to indicate it, and films that radically change their drop pattern tend to do it earlier in their run than the 8th week. (Frozen did it on about week 4, for instance.)

 

Which means for all time placement, it's assured at 9th, since that's what it's already at. 8th or 7th is still possible, although not incredibly likely. 600m does seem like a strong chance, although not absolute.

 

50% drops from here on out would still see it finishing above 590m.

 

That's all I got. I don't know how many more of these updates I'll do, but it should be at least for another week or two.

[Julian1410]

This movie really holds up the second viewing. I saw it for the first time over a Month Ago and just saw it again and loved it even more the second time around. Absolutely amazing film

[TalismanRing]

On 8/2/2018 at 2:34 PM, Quigley said:

Ray Subers had once written an article saying that TS3 sold fewer tickets than TS2. This means that TS3's $494M adjusted gross is less than TS2's $443M adjusted gross. Similarly, FN's $522M gross is probably more than 522*494/443 = $582M. So actually, I2 has to gross more than $582M to even have a chance. (I apologise, my $575M estimate was rough and not based on exact calculations)

 

IMO, if I2 reaches $600M, it's probably comparable to Nemo to some extent.

Not necessarily.  It could also mean more children's tickets were sold for T2 than T3 which considering the nostalgia hook of T3 and that those were children when the first two came out were now adults makes sense.