Weekend Numbers: GOTG - 94M (PG 180) [25.5M Sunday (Spatula) Cancel the Godzilla legs!]

[Wrath]

Except that the second one did $~90M more OS than the first one, despite bringing in $~40M less domestically.  I don't doubt that Jackman's exposure grew after Les Mis, but that'd be a pretty incredible gain from one movie that a decade of X-men movies, along with everything else that he was in didn't do.  The 2nd Wolverine almost did as much OS BO as Les Mis ($282M vs $293M) and the man's Australian to begin with.  

 

Plus, how did Rise of the Guardians and Real Steel benefit from the same effect despite coming out before Les Mis?  And before you say "big robots" for Real Steel, remember that it never played in China (but it did do great in Japan and South Korea).  And for Rise of the Guardians, Happy Feet really didn't do nearly as well OS as Rise of the Guardians just a few years later.

 

Edit - Edited a few bits.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[CJohn]

Marvel's GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY is the #1 movie in America: $94,320,883.

[ecstasy]

Except that the second one did $~90M more OS than the first one, despite bringing in $~40M less domestically.  I don't doubt that Jackman's exposure grew after Les Mis, but that'd be a pretty incredible gain from one movie that a decade of X-men movies, along with everything else that he was in didn't do.  The 2nd Wolverine almost did as much OS BO as Les Mis ($282M vs $293M) and the man's Australian to begin with.  

 

Plus, how did Rise of the Guardians and Real Steel benefit from the same effect despite coming out before Les Mis?  And before you say "big robots" for Real Steel, remember that it never played in China (but it did do great in Japan and South Korea).  And for Rise of the Guardians, Happy Feet really didn't do nearly as well OS as Rise of the Guardians just a few years later.

 

Edit - Edited a few bits.

 

The Wolverine was in 3D. No other Xmen movie was in 3D before that not even First Class.

[terrestrial]

We need to be careful with OS for GotG.

 

I think 600M worldwide would be nice.

 

South Korea has for the moment a rather mindblowingly recordbreaking local movie released that grabs,...

 

Rsyu

According to CJ entertainment, Roaring currents passed 5 million admissions at 9:30 am this morning. 240k admissions just from showings before 9:30 AM...a tenth of the population has watched roaring currents over just 6 days.

 

SK brought in ~ $30m for CA 2, I am afraid GotG will earn considerable less

Till today, if I understand Rsyu's system right: $5.466 million

 

[Wrath]

South Korea has for the moment a rather mindblowingly recordbreaking local movie released that grabs,...

 

SK brought in ~ $30m for CA 2, I am afraid GotG will earn considerable less

Till today, if I understand Rsyu's system right: $5.466 million

 

Exactly.  GotG isn't doing well in SK right now (and probably won't recover) because this Roaring Currents movie opened last week and is having a ludicrously amazing run.  I mean, GotG is a great movie and all, but if it opened the week after one of the truly all-time greats, like the original Star Wars or Gone with the Wind or something it'd just get crushed, and that's what happening in SK.  So, no, GotG will likely never put up decent numbers in SK but its something unlikely to impact other markets.

Edited August 4, 2014 by Wrath

[Wrath]

The Wolverine was in 3D. No other Xmen movie was in 3D before that not even First Class.

 

And you're saying that accounts for The Wolverine doing so badly domestically and so well OS, or Origins: Wolverine doing so well domestically and so badly OS?

[Gopher]

Starting to wonder if Guardians will top TF4. I think WOM is crazy and the "surprise" factor of its success will only fuel curiosity. Not to mention there's nothing after TMNT to slow it down. It even has 4-5 weeks of IMAX.

[Captain Craig]

I'm thinking that this could benefit being so close to school starting(maybe TMNT if it opens well also) and if any school age peers passed on it discussion could keep it's legs high throughout September. 

[miketheavenger]

Starting to wonder if Guardians will top TF4. I think WOM is crazy and the "surprise" factor of its success will only fuel curiosity. Not to mention there's nothing after TMNT to slow it down. It even has 4-5 weeks of IMAX.

Domestically it's definitely possible. Worldwide though forget about it.

[ecstasy]

And you're saying that accounts for The Wolverine doing so badly domestically and so well OS, or Origins: Wolverine doing so well domestically and so badly OS?

 

I'm saying that's one of the reasons The Wolverine did very well overseas compared to all of the preceding X movies.

[filmscholar]

I see "Guardians" with a 55-60% Drop now that the rush factor is over.  So as long as Turtles stays within tracking.  It will win the weekend:

 

Turtles = 49-55 OW

Guardians = 35-40 2nd Weekend. 

 

But excellent OW for Guardians.  I will say this was the biggest surprise opening of the Summer. 

Edited August 4, 2014 by filmscholar

[terrestrial]

I see "Guardians" with a 55-60% Drop now that the rush factor is over.  So as long as Turtles stays within tracking.  It will win the weekend:

 

Turtles = 49-55 OW

Guardians = 35-40 2nd Weekend. 

 

But excellent OW for Guardians.  I will say this was the biggest surprise opening of the Summer. 

 

Where did you see such a high tracking for the turtles? BO.com has it still at $39m, Subers says $38m to $42m. He also thinks GotG 'has the edge'

[baumer]

Starting to wonder if Guardians will top TF4. I think WOM is crazy and the "surprise" factor of its success will only fuel curiosity. Not to mention there's nothing after TMNT to slow it down. It even has 4-5 weeks of IMAX.

 

Seeing as it finished with 5 mill less than TRF4 and the WOM is insane on it, shouldn't 250 be a breeze?

[SuperBatman]

i really wouldnt be surprised if we got a stand alone rocket movie in the near future.

[Fake]

Seeing as it finished with 5 mill less than TRF4 and the WOM is insane on it, shouldn't 250 be a breeze?

Yes. As long as it doesn't drop too harshly (over 60%) next weekend.

 

I am projecting it to reach 250M on Labor Day weekend. Just curious B, how many people had GotG as the #1 film in the summer game?

Edited August 5, 2014 by Fake

[filmlover]

Starting to wonder if Guardians will top TF4. I think WOM is crazy and the "surprise" factor of its success will only fuel curiosity. Not to mention there's nothing after TMNT to slow it down. It even has 4-5 weeks of IMAX.

Yes, I think it's happening at this point.

 

Crazy to think that the summer is finally looking to be won by an August release for the first time ever this year.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

This really isn't true.  In fact, most of them have done quite a bit better.  Of the successful super-hero comic book adaptions of since 2000 (so, excluding the non-super hero adaptations like MiB (MiB came out *17* years ago?  I suddenly feel old) and 300, the Green Lantern-like flops (I set the floor at $150M DOM), and the older stuff that operated in a different environment), their multiples have gone:

 

SM2 4.25

ASM 4.22

SM 3.51

DK 3.39

IM 3.21

TA 3.01

DKR 2.78

FF 2.77

Thor 2.74

CATWS 2.73

CATFA 2.72

DoFP 2.55

MoS 2.51

X-United 2.5

IM2 2.44

TDW 2.40

IM3 2.35

X-LS 2.27

SM3 2.22

The Wolverine 2.12

 

Averaging out at 2.83, with a median of 2.72.

 

Obviously there are some some movies in there that are better or worse as comps for various reasons, but even if you simply don't count ASM and SM2, it only bumps the average mult down to 2.68 with a median of 2.64 (halfway between CATFA and DoFP).

 

Also, its pretty easy to notice the dual trends of the ones at the bottom being (generally speaking) relatively poorly reviewed sequels and the ones at the top being... lets go with "non-sequels" that received more positive reviews.  Neither of those trends hold up 100%, but they're clear enough that its hard to overlook them.  

 

So, its certainly possible GotG ends up with a multiple of 2.4 for whatever reason, but as a very strongly reviewed non-sequel, a 2.8 (or higher) multiple seems a lot more likely.

 

The ones over 4 were midweek openers so you can throw those out. Now your average is 2.68 and you failed to include all kinds of SH films with lower than or equal to 2.5 multis like FF2, DD, GR, Watchmen, Hulk, TIH, GL, Catwoman, Elektra etc. etc. etc. Which would easily bring that average down to below 2.5.

 

Besides, I never said GOTG would pitch lower than 2.5, but that CBSH films "usually do not have better than 2.5 multis". GOTG could get over 2.5, but if it does, it is an overachiever in the genre, hence should be lauded for such a feat, not looked down upon for not reaching, say 3, or even 2.8. 

 

I do know what I'm talking about on this subject.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

i really wouldnt be surprised if we got a stand alone rocket movie in the near future.

 

 

I hope so. I've so done a 180 on this character.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

Anyway, good to see GOTG stay above 94 and not drop as was indicated last night. I think it will hold well over the next few weeks against either flimsy or non-direct competition. .

[Klingo]

Anyway, good to see GOTG stay above 94 and not drop as was indicated last night. I think it will hold well over the next few weeks against either flimsy or non-direct competition. .

Who would win next weekend?  TMNT or GOTG?