Frozen II | Nov 22 2019 | 2nd Most Profitable Movie of 2019. Disney does it again! | Documentary series coming to D+ June 26

[cannastop]

Just now, justvision said:

It can do at least 80% of what Frozen did in Japan, and 70% of Aladdin (live action, 2019) is doing so far in Korea.

 

This surely is not hard data supported predictions, but neither is it a fantasy. A little bit of optimistic gut feeling should I say.

Oh cool. Just as long as you weren't thinking it could double its performance in those markets, because that edges on impossible.

[cannastop]

14 hours ago, frozenheart1993 said:

A friend of China who is engaged in film import review said that he has seen the whole film. Disney’s last such a bad work is Chicken Little.

[justvision]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Oh cool. Just as long as you weren't thinking it could double its performance in those markets, because that edges on impossible.

Let's see: Korea + Japan = above 200M. China about 300M, NA about 700M. Rest of the wrold about 800M. Doable.

 

A lot depends on whether Frozen has a song or two as impactful as Let It Go.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, justvision said:

China about 300M, NA about 700M. Rest of the wrold about 800M

Woah there.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Woah there.

Indeed 😮 

[Legion Again]

I guess my “optimistic but not fully dreaming” scenario is something like 75 SK, 175 Japan, 200 China, 600 DOM, 600 rest equals... 1.65?

[cannastop]

I might go higher in Japan than either of you, like maybe $200m there alone. Based on the current exchange rate though.

I think the Yen was really strong in early/middle 2014, but I'm not entirely sure.

 

OK looks like it was only slightly stronger. But it was like REALLY strong in 2010 and 2011.

 

And in 2012 it was extraordinarily strong. Like going to Japan was really unaffordable.

Edited August 1, 2019 by cannastop

[BadAtGender]

Two countries are probably going to be quite a bit weaker than they were in 2013: The UK (it was at $1.6 to the £, now $1.2) and Russia (33 rubles to the $ then, 63 now.)They were the 4th and 8th strongest markets for Frozen.

[XXR & Friends]

9 hours ago, justvision said:

It can do at least 80% of what Frozen did in Japan, and 70% of Aladdin (live action, 2019) is doing so far in Korea.

 

This surely is not hard data supported predictions, but neither is it a fantasy. A little bit of optimistic gut feeling should I say.

 

$2 billion is a bit of a fantasy IMO, especially when you already have it dropping/flat in 2 of the first ones biggest markets. It would have to increase an average of 63% in every other market worldwide to get to $2b

[MeowwoeM]

I can see it topping $2B although it's extremely unlikely if it has the same gross of I2 in NA, Minions in Europe, Toy Story 4 in Latin America, Frozen in Japan and South Korea, Coco in China, and better than all in other Asian markets. $1.65B for now ($600M NA, $300M Japan + SK, $100M China, $650M RotW.)

Edited August 1, 2019 by MeowwoeM

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

It would have to increase an average of 63% in every other market worldwide to get to $2b

Yeah that's like a Shrek 2 increase everywhere.

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, MeowwoeM said:

($600M NA, $300M Japan + SK, $100M China, $650M RotW.)

I think the only one of those that is realistic is the China number. Might even be a low estimate.

Edited August 1, 2019 by cannastop

[Royce]

The over-predictions in here reminds me of Age of Ultron pre-release

 

It's all hype from the trailers and goodwill of the predecessor

 

Y'all are just setting F2 up to be a disappointment even if it inevitably succeeds

[Cap]

40 minutes ago, Royce said:

Y'all are just setting F2 up to be a disappointment even if it inevitably succeeds

I had to sort through a year of posts overhyping Pika Pika, Godzilla, Toy Story, and The Lion King. It's Queen Elsa's time now. 

 

_{Only she isn't going to disappoint, because:}

 

[keysersoze123]

Expectations are already out of whack(600m+ domestic and god knows what OS). Crazy high bar to meet. TS4 expectations were reasonable until the stupid tracking threw everything out of reasonable range. I think unless PS continues to mimic tracking, we can ignore all that crazy stuff.

[infamous5445]

Frozen 2 over Infinity War. Time to dream big

[PatrickvD]

The original film’s popularity has only grown since it became a runaway smash hit. Remember, Let it Go didn’t reach the top 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 until March 22... when the film had been out for four months. And this was the movie version by Idina Menzel.

 

Frozen is the ultimate example of a cultural phenomenon. So it’s not unreasonable to expect the sequel to be big in my opinion.

[Yandereprime101189]

Could end up being the biggest animated sequel of all time.

 

Massively looking forward to it

Edited August 1, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Royce said:

The over-predictions in here reminds me of Age of Ultron pre-release

 

It's all hype from the trailers and goodwill of the predecessor

 

Y'all are just setting F2 up to be a disappointment even if it inevitably succeeds

Far less crazy than TLK, ant Aladdin, ts4 or Pikachu. People actually want this sequel and they have put serious effort behind it. I'm going 1.2B floor, 1.8 ceiling. Likely 1.4-1.6

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Expectations are already out of whack(600m+ domestic and god knows what OS). Crazy high bar to meet. TS4 expectations were reasonable until the stupid tracking threw everything out of reasonable range. I think unless PS continues to mimic tracking, we can ignore all that crazy stuff.

Difference being ts3 had a perfect ending and basically no one asked for TS4.