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Wed Numbers from RTH (GOTG back on top)

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LA Times is bullish on the weekend: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-projector-if-i-stay-sin-city-20140821-story.html

 

If I stay: 

The PG-13 tearjerker is expected to gross a solid $25 million in its opening weekend, according to those who have seen pre-release audience surveys.

Meanwhile, nine years after graphic novel adaptation “Sin City” hit the big screen, directors Robert Rodriguez and Frank Miller return with the sequel, “Sin City: A Dame to Kill For.”

But with such a large gap between the first and second films, analysts predict the film will gross about $20 million--substantially less than the $29 million the original opened with in 2005.

“When the Game Stands Tall,” which cost Sony Pictures’ TriStar label about $15 million to make, is likely going to be the biggest disappointment of the weekend with an opening of under $10 million.

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Still think Sin City and If I Stay won't come close to 20M. I hope I am wrong. 

 

 

I agree. Still hoping for SC2 to surprise slightly but the reviews are showing a general sentiment of the missed opportunity to capitalize on both the financial success of the first film and the zeitgeist of the time. It looks like a sequel that like Dumb and Dumber To, will be viewed as far past it's time.

 

Still, this makes me feel quite old since Sin City seems like it came out just a couple of years ago for me.

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.

Theater count change, is that here the right place?

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> NEW RELEASES
6 - If I Stay Warner Bros. 2,907 - - 1
7 - Frank Miller's Sin City: A Dame to Kill For Weinstein / Dimension 2,894 - - 1
8 - When the Game Stands Tall TriStar 2,673 - - 1
43 - The One I Love Radius-TWC 9 - - 1
45 - Love is Strange Sony Classics 5 - - 1
46 - 14 Blades Radius-TWC 4 - - 1
> EXPANDING
4 5 Let's Be Cops Fox 3,140 +46 +1.5% 2
14 29 Earth to Echo Relativity 781 +627 +407.1% 8
23 46 Island of Lemurs: Madagascar (IMAX) Warner Bros. 302 +261 +636.6% 21
25 27 Transformers: Age of Extinction Paramount 283 +77 +37.4% 9
26 30 Calvary Fox Searchlight 240 +110 +84.6% 4
33 41 America (2014) Lionsgate 72 +10 +16.1% 9
37 48 Land Ho! Sony Classics 51 +20 +64.5% 7
40 55 Yves Saint Laurent Weinstein Company 21 +3 +16.7% 9
42 77 The Trip to Italy IFC 10 +7 +233.3% 2
> NO CHANGE
3 4 The Expendables 3 Lionsgate 3,221 - - 2
5 6 The Giver Weinstein Company 3,003 - - 2
> DECLINING
1 1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) Paramount 3,864 -116 -2.9% 3
2 2 Guardians of the Galaxy Buena Vista 3,371 -326 -8.8% 4
9 3 Into The Storm Warner Bros. 2,375 -1,059 -30.8% 3
10 9 The Hundred-Foot Journey Buena Vista 1,944 -99 -4.8% 3
11 7 Lucy Universal 1,761 -759 -30.1% 5
12 8 Step Up All In Lionsgate/Summit 948 -1,124 -54.2% 3
13 13 Magic in the Moonlight Sony Classics 787 -177 -18.4% 5
15 16 Boyhood IFC 734 -37 -4.8% 7
16 11 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox 733 -529 -41.9% 7
17 15 What If (2014) CBS Films 680 -107 -13.6% 3
18 10 Hercules (2014) Paramount 622 -853 -57.8% 5
19 14 Planes: Fire & Rescue Buena Vista 589 -371 -38.6% 6
20 12 Get On Up Universal 575 -526 -47.8% 4
21 17 A Most Wanted Man Roadside Attractions 431 -213 -33.1% 5
22 19 How to Train Your Dragon 2 Fox 353 -24 -6.4% 11
24 18 The Purge: Anarchy Universal 293 -282 -49.0% 6
27 23 Edge of Tomorrow Warner Bros. 192 -69 -26.4% 12
28 25 X-Men: Days of Future Past Fox 188 -35 -15.7% 14
29 26 The Fault in our Stars Fox 185 -21 -10.2% 12
30 22 Tammy Warner Bros. 157 -119 -43.1% 8
31 20 And So It Goes Clarius Entertainment 156 -206 -56.9% 5
32 33 Chef Open Road Films 105 -17 -13.9% 16
34 34 Godzilla (2014) Warner Bros. 70 -48 -40.7% 15
35 36 Blended Warner Bros. 66 -45 -40.5% 14
36 35 Jersey Boys Warner Bros. 64 -51 -44.3% 10
38 42 Begin Again Weinstein Company 39 -23 -37.1% 9
39 44 The Fluffy Movie Open Road Films 30 -21 -41.2% 5
41 43 Wish I Was Here Focus Features 19 -35 -64.8% 6
44 60 The LEGO Movie Warner Bros. 7 -8 -53.3% 29

 

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I am still trying to analyse some 2014 numbers and have a question (related to the 22 - 24 day comparison)

 

How influential are those days for the BO?

Administrative Professionals Day

Arbor Day

Confederate Memorial Day

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Whoa! Guardians is at 230m already?  How high can it go?

 

It should pass DOFP tomorrow, TF4 sometime on Saturday and Cap/Lego over Labor Day weekend. 

 

290M+ and 300M is definitely possible, if it drops under 35% this weekend. 

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