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Weekend Prediction thread 6/28-6/30 Play the Derby

By Impact, in Box Office Derby

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stripe Box Office Gold

stripe

Posted
Posted

Fantastic Beasts - 98M

Doctor Strange - 20.5M

Trolls - 20M

Arrival - 15M

Edge of Seventeen - 11M

Almost Christmas - 7.5M

Hacksaw Ridge - 7M

Bleed for this - 5.5M

Billy Lynn - 5M

Accountant - 2.5M

 

Top 10 - 162M

 

next weekend

Moana - 55M

FB - 45M

DS - 18M

Trolls - 16M

Allied - 15M

Arrival - 14M

BS2 - 10M

HR - 6.5M

EoS - 6M

RDA - 5M

 

Top 10 - 190M

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted
  1. Fantastic Beasts, and Where to Find Them - 103.6M
  2. Trolls - 24.5M
  3. Doctor Strange - 19.3M
  4. The Edge of Seventeen - 15.7M
  5. Arrival - 14.0M
  6. Almost Christmas - 6.8M
  7. Hacksaw Ridge - 6.4M
  8. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - 5.5M
  9. Bleed for This - 4.3M
  10. The Accountant - 2.9M
  11. Moonlight - 1.6M
  12. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back - 1.5M

Inferno - 1.4M

Shut In - 1.3M

Boo! A Madea Halloween - 1.1M

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Blankments Global Phenomenon

Blankments

Posted
Posted
On 11/11/2016 at 11:35 PM, Blankments said:

Ouija: Origin of Evil and Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children are gone.

Inferno, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, and Storks are gone.

 

Trolls - 18/1 (2D/3D) total 19 (up 2)

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - 10/8 (2D/3D) total 18 (debut)

Hacksaw Ridge - 15 (no change)

Doctor Strange - 8/6 (2D/3D) total 14 (down 11)
The Edge of Seventeen - 10 (debut)

Almost Christmas - 10 (no change)

Shut In - 9 (down 1)
Arrival - 5 (no change)
Bleed for This - 5 (debut)
The Accountant - 4 (down 3)

The Girl on the Train – 4 (down 1)
Keeping Up with the Joneses - 4 (down 1)
Tyler Perry's Boo! A Madea Halloween - 4 (down 6)

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mahnamahna Box Office Gold

mahnamahna

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

Spoiler

 

11/23-11/27

  1. Moana: $77 million/$109.5 million 
  2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $40 million/$60 million ($151 million) 
  3. Trolls: $14 million/$20 million ($139 million) 
  4. Doctor Strange: $13.5 million/$18.5 million ($203 million) 
  5. Allied: $12 million/$18 million 
  6. Arrival: $9.5 million/$13 million ($58 million) 
  7. Bad Santa 2: $8 million/$12.5 million
  8. Hacksaw Ridge: $6 million/$8.5 million ($53 million) 
  9. Rules Don't Apply: $5.5 million/$8.5 million 
  10. Almost Christmas: $5 million/$7 million ($33 million) 

12/2-12/4

  1. Moana: $35 million ($157 million)
  2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $15.5 million ($174 million) 
  3. Allied: $7 million ($28 million) 
  4. Arrival: $5 million ($65 million) 
  5. Trolls: $5 million ($144 million) 
  6. Bad Santa 2: $5 million ($20 million) 
  7. Doctor Strange: $4.5 million ($209 million) 
  8. Almost Christmas: $3.5 million ($38 million)
  9. Hacksaw Ridge: $3 million ($56 million) 
  10. Rules Don't Apply: $3 million ($13 million) 

12/9-12/11

  1. Moana: $27 million ($194 million)
  2. Office Christmas Party: $22.5 million 
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $9.5 million ($188 million)
  4. Allied: $6 million ($37 million) 
  5. Arrival: $4 million ($71 million) 
  6. Trolls: $4 million ($149 million) 
  7. Bad Santa 2: $3.5 million ($26 million) 
  8. Doctor Strange: $3 million ($214 million)
  9. Almost Christmas: $2.5 million ($42 million) 
  10. La La Land: $2.5 million 

12/16-12/18

  1. Rogue One: $100.5 million 
  2. La La Land: $15 million ($19 million) 
  3. Office Christmas Party: $14.5 million ($45 million) 
  4. Moana: $14 million ($213 million)
  5. Collateral Beauty: $11 million
  6. The Space Between Us: $8 million 
  7. Allied: $4 million ($43 million) 
  8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $3.5 million ($193 million) 
  9. Bad Santa 2: $2.5 million ($30 million) 
  10. Arrival: $2 million ($74 million) 

12/23-12/25

  1. Sing: $65 million ($100 million) 
  2. Rogue One: $60.5 million ($216 million) 
  3. Passengers: $35.5 million ($60 million) 
  4. Office Christmas Party: $15 million ($73 million) 
  5. Assassin's Creed: $13 million ($30 million) 
  6. La La Land: $12 million ($39 million) 
  7. Moana: $11 million ($232 million) 
  8. Fences: $10 million 
  9. Why Him?: $9 million 
  10. Collateral Beauty: $8 million ($25 million) 
  11. The Space Between Us: $5.5 million ($18 million) 
  12. Allied: $3 million ($48 million) 
  13. Gold: $2.5 million 
  14. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $2 million ($197 million) 
  15. Arrival: $1.5 million ($77 million) 

12/30-1/1

  1. Sing: $56 million ($217 million) 
  2. Rogue One: $45 million ($313 million) 
  3. Passengers: $26 million ($115 million) 
  4. Fences: $16 million ($42 million) 
  5. La La Land: $13 million ($65 million) 
  6. Moana: $12.5 million ($259 million) 
  7. Why Him?: $11.5 million ($33 million) 
  8. Assassin's Creed: $9 million ($50 million) 
  9. Collateral Beauty: $7 million ($40 million) 
  10. Office Christmas Party: $6 million ($85 million)
  11. The Space Between Us: $4.5 million ($28 million) 
  12. Gold: $4 million ($11 million) 
  13. Allied: $2.5 million ($54 million) 
  14. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $2 million ($201 million)
  15. Arrival: $1.5 million ($80 million) 

 

 

 

 

 
  1.  
Edited by mahnamahna
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Ezen Baklattan Global Phenomenon

Ezen Baklattan

Posted
Posted

1. Moana - $57.6m

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $42.2m

3. Allied - $15m

4. Trolls - $14.3m

5. Doctor Strange - $14.1m

6. Arrival - $9.6m

7. Bad Santa 2 - $7.4m

8. Hacksaw Ridge - $6.4m

9. Almost Christmas - $4.9m

10. Rules Don't Apply - $3.6m

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yjs Box Office Gold

yjs

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Spaghetti said:

1. Moana - $57.6m

2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them - $42.2m

3. Allied - $15m

4. Trolls - $14.3m

5. Doctor Strange - $14.1m

6. Arrival - $9.6m

7. Bad Santa 2 - $7.4m

8. Hacksaw Ridge - $6.4m

9. Almost Christmas - $4.9m

10. Rules Don't Apply - $3.6m

are these 3days numbers? ?

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yjs Box Office Gold

yjs

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, James said:

Most of these numbers have Moana doing very close to what Frozen did for it's 5-day wide OW (94M). Some are above that. Is the tracking really that strong (serious question, I haven't been following this)?

There's no real data out yet but think it still feels more like a logical prediction than an intuitive, ballsy one.

 

Frozen's 5-day OW, while coming as a surprise and surely impressive, did never guarantee anything close to its $400M total back then, not even $300M, meaning it was not THAT big of a number if you come to think of it (for example, Toy Story 2 is adjusted to $411M, which is similar to Frozen's, and its 5-day OW is translated to about $134M)

 

Since thanksgiving family releases with good WOM and a fair amount of holiday competitions seem to do about more or less than 3x of 5-day OW, people thought Frozen would end somewhere between $250M and $300M with that 5-day OW. Before it opened many people estimated Frozen to do just about the same with or slightly below Tangled's $200M total.

 

The thing with Moana is that not many think it will do below $200M. While it doesn't seem to have the same pre-release excitement that was there for Frozen and hasn't really had any kind of tracking record yet, Disney brand has established itself much stronger compared to those years when Tangled or even Frozen came out. And people just naturally tend to assume its total will be somewhere roughly around $250M, given the Disney's winning streak. (The similar logic how people think Sing will be another $300M hit since Illumination has hit three consecutive $300M+ home-runs)

 

What I'm worried about is the Good Dinosaur situation. With equally or even better-established Pixar brand and the thanksgiving release date it still tanked hard with the lack of people's interest. But the difference between TGD and Moana is that Moana actually has very strong critics reviews and a potential to have a very good WOM, while the reactions to TGD was overall insipid. So while it's possible that Moana opens a lot softer than people expect, maybe at a low-to-mid $60M range, it would at least crawl its way to $200M total, I believe. 

 

 

Edited by yjs
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Mango Blockbuster

Mango

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty interested to see how WDA's streak continues this weekend. I remember back in 2010 most places had Tangled opening to around $35M and it did $48. Frozen was looked to open around what Tangled did, managed $67. If Moana continues this trend it could hit $70-80 million.

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trifle Box Office Gold

trifle

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Mango said:

I'm pretty interested to see how WDA's streak continues this weekend. I remember back in 2010 most places had Tangled opening to around $35M and it did $48. Frozen was looked to open around what Tangled did, managed $67. If Moana continues this trend it could hit $70-80 million.

 

I hope it does.  I'd like movies about people (as opposed to animals) to catch on...

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