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2015 Best Picture predictions!

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Starting to wonder if Spotlight will win anything.

This year is getting stranger and stranger-now it seems Compton will be my alt for picture (I only have it for screenplay and a alt for sound mixing right now)

 

Edit: Was thinking Spotlight was adapted and that either Big Short or even The Martian would beat it (and even forgot Big Short was adapted and was thinking it was original for some reason)

Given the fact that its biggest competition is Inside Out, it will likely win screenplay.

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Just now, MinaTakla said:

Mad Max = Gravity?

Big Short = American Hustle?

Spotlight = 12YAS?

Hmm..

Really hope Mad Max shocks everyone and wins BP

 

That would be an inspired choice for BP, but the Academy won't let Mad Max win because it's a genre film <_<

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Just now, MinaTakla said:

Mad Max = Gravity?

Big Short = American Hustle?

Spotlight = 12YAS?

Hmm..

Really hope Mad Max shocks everyone and wins BP

I don't think you can really compare anything to 2013 this year. Spotlight is comparable to Boyhood more than anything.

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I don't think you can really compare anything to 2013 this year. Spotlight is comparable to Boyhood more than anything.

Main question is this: If SPOTLIGHT is a BOYHOOD (which is something I said 6 months ago and was dismissed by many) what is this year's BIRDMAN?

I think that would be either Mad Max or the Big Short.

 

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6 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Main question is this: If SPOTLIGHT is a BOYHOOD (which is something I said 6 months ago and was dismissed by many) what is this year's BIRDMAN?

I think that would be either Mad Max or the Big Short.

 

The Big Short is more akin to American Sniper as far as recent movies, but from what I understand Million Dollar Baby emerged very late in the game and went on to win so that would be a good comparison. Birdman was always in the race as a possibility to win, The Big Short wasn't until recently. 

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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Big Short is more akin to American Sniper as far as recent movies, but from what I understand Million Dollar Baby emerged very late in the game and went on to win so that would be a good comparison. Birdman was always in the race as a possibility to win, The Big Short wasn't until recently. 

Yes, Million Dollar Baby did emerge very late, it didn't even have a release date until a month before it opened. The Aviator was the early frontrunner that season until Million Dollar Baby became a hot topic due to the controversy surrounding its third act (the right-to-lifers really went after it), plus Clint was sorta overdue since Mystic River would've won the previous year if not for the Lord of the Rings behemoth. The Big Short could become the frontrunner, but it won't be for the same reasons Million Dollar Baby did.

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15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yes, Million Dollar Baby did emerge very late, it didn't even have a release date until a month before it opened. The Aviator was the early frontrunner that season until Million Dollar Baby became a hot topic due to the controversy surrounding its third act (the right-to-lifers really went after it), plus Clint was sorta overdue since Mystic River would've won the previous year if not for the Lord of the Rings behemoth. The Big Short could become the frontrunner, but it won't be for the same reasons Million Dollar Baby did.

 

Heh, which leads to why Departed then won in 2006 if it comes right down to it - Another line in the Scorsese is overdue story... in other words present yourself with a good enough story and it seems you can become the defacto winner.

Edited by narniadis
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Still trying to decide on what to put in and remove on my picture noms. Seems like Star Wars and Hateful 8 are out now and possibly even Inside Out. I am tempted to put in Compton but still not 100% if I should or not given that I only have it for a screenplay nod and a alt for sound mixing.

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Probably final, Brooklyn is back in and added Compton.

 

The Big Short

Brooklyn

Carol

Inside Out

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Straight outta Compton

 

Alt: Star Wars

 

BTW-I don't want to add or remove Martian or Mad Max from any cats-as it seems I have them both tied for the most noms (well along with Revenant), just think it be epic if the 2 most nominated films were Sci-Fi's.

 

edit: Hmmm seems like I have 10 films, was not paying attention to that, might need to remove one but not sure what yet..

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PGA nominations showed how crowded this year is, plenty of movies still in contention. Anything can happen next Monday.

 

The only movies that seem to be locked to earn a BP nomination are:

Spotlight (NBR, SAG, PGA, Globe, BFCA, AFI, BAFTA)

MMFR (NBR, PGA, Globe, BFCA, AFI)

Martian (PGA, Globe, BFCA, NBR, AFI)

The Big Short (SAG, PGA, Globe, BFCA, AFI, BAFTA) 

 

Strong candidates:

Revenant (PGA, Globe, BFCA, BAFTA)

Bridge of Spies (PGA, BFCA, NBR, AFI, BAFTA, but no Globe)

 

Also very likely:

Carol (Globe, BFCA, NBR, AFI, BAFTA but no PGA)

Room (Globe, BFCA, NBR, AFI but no PGA or BAFTA)

Straight Outta Compton (PGA, SAG, NBR, AFI)

 

Still in the run with strength:

Brooklyn (PGA, BFCA, BAFTA british)

Sicario (PGA, BFCA, NBR)

 

Still in the run:

Inside Out (NBR, AFI). But already too many popular choices in the run.

Trumbo (SAG). But its really a longshot.

TFA (BFCA, AFI). But its chances are really low at this point.

Ex Machina (PGA, BAFTA british). But it's maybe too late to enter into the conversation.

 

My dream list is:

Spotlight, MMFR, Martian, Big Short, Revenant, Bridge, Carol, Room, Inside Out, Brooklyn.

 

 

Edited by stripe
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1 hour ago, MinaTakla said:

The Big Short is now the frontrunner.

Spotlight..the new Boyhood? (as I said back in August)?

Now the race got really interesting

 

The Big Short still hasn't win anything important, while MMFR and Spotlight already have some. Birdman had more wins and merntions than The big short. 

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2 hours ago, stripe said:

 

The Big Short still hasn't win anything important, while MMFR and Spotlight already have some. Birdman had more wins and merntions than The big short. 

 

But there's been nothing important to win yet.  Guild nominations matter more than GG nominations or Critic Wins.  Because guild members are actually going to be voting.

 

They aren't direct comparisons, but Big Short has yet to miss anything important guild wise.  Spotlight has, as has everything else.  It still matters who wins the guild nominations, but The Big Short has all of the momentum.

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On 1/7/2016 at 7:18 AM, stripe said:

PGA nominations showed how crowded this year is, plenty of movies still in contention. Anything can happen next Monday.

 

The only movies that seem to be locked to earn a BP nomination are:

Spotlight (NBR, SAG, PGA, Globe, BFCA, AFI, BAFTA)

MMFR (NBR, PGA, Globe, BFCA, AFI)

Martian (PGA, Globe, BFCA, NBR, AFI)

The Big Short (SAG, PGA, Globe, BFCA, AFI, BAFTA) 

 

Strong candidates:

Revenant (PGA, Globe, BFCA, BAFTA)

Bridge of Spies (PGA, BFCA, NBR, AFI, BAFTA, but no Globe)

 

Also very likely:

Carol (Globe, BFCA, NBR, AFI, BAFTA but no PGA)

Room (Globe, BFCA, NBR, AFI but no PGA or BAFTA)

Straight Outta Compton (PGA, SAG, NBR, AFI)

 

Still in the run with strength:

Brooklyn (PGA, BFCA, BAFTA british)

Sicario (PGA, BFCA, NBR)

 

Still in the run:

Inside Out (NBR, AFI). But already too many popular choices in the run.

Trumbo (SAG). But its really a longshot.

TFA (BFCA, AFI). But its chances are really low at this point.

Ex Machina (PGA, BAFTA british). But it's maybe too late to enter into the conversation.

 

My dream list is:

Spotlight, MMFR, Martian, Big Short, Revenant, Bridge, Carol, Room, Inside Out, Brooklyn.

 

 

 

Visualized what you had:

 

GwvPgTk.png

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